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Tuesday, August 18, 2020

Stock calls for 18 August 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
08/18/20CIMBAPAC Realty0.3750.538Add
08/18/20DBS VickersBumitama0.5150.66BuyDCF
08/18/20UOB Kay HianFu Yu0.2450.29Buy
08/18/20CIMBInnotek0.390.478Add
08/18/20DBS VickersMapletree Industrial3.143.25Buy
08/18/20CIMBSasseur0.780.84Add
08/18/20DBS VickersSIA Engineering1.862.4Buy
08/18/20DMG & PartnersSingtel2.43.2BuySum of parts
08/18/20DBS VickersSingtel2.42.85BuySum of parts
08/18/20DBS VickersST Engineering3.393.8Buy
08/18/20DMG & PartnersST Engineering3.393.9BuySum of parts
08/18/20PhillipThai Beverage0.6350.82BuyPER18x FY21
08/18/20UOB Kay HianThai Beverage0.6350.78BuySum of parts
08/18/20CIMBUMS1.061.1Hold
08/18/20Kim EngUMS1.061.36Buy
08/18/20OCBCYanlord1.31.41Buy

Monday, August 17, 2020

Another constellation is aligning and a big financial crisis is brewing this time. - Part 7

Is Warren Buffett preparing for a financial crisis?

https://www.investopedia.com/berkshire-cuts-bank-holdings-takes-position-in-gold-5074946

Warren Buffett (WB) has been cutting back on financial shares and increasing the gold position.  Why?

It is a well-known fact that WB doesn't like gold because it doesn't pay any dividends at all.  Why is he buying gold now when its price is at an all-time high?

I think he is projecting the exact same outcome that I've been anticipating below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/another-constellation-is-aligning-and_75.html

The financial tsunami that I'm projecting is based on the following highlights.

  • Rising US-China tension (trade, economic, financial, sanction, etc)
  • Excessive monetary policies
  • Imploding debts
  • Covid virus
  • Natural disasters (floodings in China & Japan now, and the US typhoon season)
  • Unsustainable financial firms' earnings (bond trading income)
  • Lendlease Reit - Stock calls

     

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    10/15/19DIRLendlease Reit0.941.01outperform
    12/06/19DBS VickersLendlease Reit0.921.05BuyDCF
    02/12/20DBS VickersLendlease Reit0.911.05Buy
    03/18/20DBS VickersLendlease Reit0.480.94Buy
    04/02/20DBS VickersLendlease Reit0.520.94Buy
    05/08/20DBS VickersLendlease Reit0.5750.85Buy
    06/01/20DBS VickersLendlease Reit0.670.85Buy
    07/03/20DBS VickersLendlease Reit0.680.85Buy

    KSH - Stock calls

     

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    11/12/19Lim & TanKSH0.4650Buy
    01/28/20Lim & TanKSH0.4150Buy on weakness
    04/06/20Lim & TanKSH0.290Hold
    08/03/20Lim & TanKSH0.3450Neutral

    Koufu - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    07/03/19UOB Kay HianKoufu0.720.95Buy
    08/08/19UOB Kay HianKoufu0.710.95Buy
    08/08/19DBS VickersKoufu0.710.88BuyPER17x FY20
    10/01/19UOB Kay HianKoufu0.720.95Buy
    10/01/19DBS VickersKoufu0.720.88Buy
    11/05/19DBS VickersKoufu0.7550.88BuyPER17x FY20
    11/06/19UOB Kay HianKoufu0.770.95Buy
    12/11/19SAC CapitalKoufu0.7650.87Buy
    01/06/20DBS VickersKoufu0.7750.88Buy
    02/12/20UOB Kay HianKoufu0.7250.83Buy
    02/13/20DBS VickersKoufu0.7350.84BuyPER17x FY20
    03/02/20DBS VickersKoufu0.7050.84BuyPER17x FY20
    03/03/20UOB Kay HianKoufu0.710.81Buy
    03/03/20Lim & TanKoufu0.710Hold
    04/22/20DBS VickersKoufu0.6150.68Hold
    04/24/20UOB Kay HianKoufu0.60.69Buy
    06/01/20DBS VickersKoufu0.650.68Hold
    06/15/20DBS VickersKoufu0.6550.75BuyPER17x FY20/21
    06/15/20CIMBKoufu0.6550.86AddPER19x FY21
    07/02/20CIMBKoufu0.6950.86AddPER19x FY21
    07/03/20DBS VickersKoufu0.7150.75Buy
    07/03/20UOB Kay HianKoufu0.7150.78Buy
    07/03/20Lim & TanKoufu0.7150Hold
    08/05/20PhillipKoufu0.670.8BuyPER18.5x FY21
    08/12/20DBS VickersKoufu0.680.77BuyPER17x FY21
    08/13/20UOB Kay HianKoufu0.6750.78Buy
    08/13/20Lim & TanKoufu0.6750Buy on weakness
    08/17/20CIMBKoufu0.6850.86Add

    Stock calls for 17 August 2020

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    08/17/20PhillipAPAC Realty0.3750.365NeutralDCF
    08/17/20DMG & PartnersBumitama0.510.65BuyPER11x FY21
    08/17/20Kim EngBumitama0.510.74Buy
    08/17/20phillipComfortdelgro1.391.65AccumulateDCF
    08/17/20UOB Kay HianComfortdelgro1.391.78Buy
    08/17/20DBS VickersComfortdelgro1.391.63BuyPER15x FY21
    08/17/20DMG & PartnersComfortdelgro1.391.55BuyDCF, PER17.6x FY21
    08/17/20CIMBComfortdelgro1.391.4Hold
    08/17/20Kim EngComfortdelgro1.391.76BuyDCF
    08/17/20CIMBFirst Resources1.381.8Add
    08/17/20DBS VickersFirst Resources1.381.7BuyDCF
    08/17/20DMG & PartnersFirst Resources1.381.45NeutralPER14x FY21
    08/17/20UOB Kay HianFirst Resources1.381.65Buy
    08/17/20Kim EngFirst Resources1.381.79BuyPER18x FY20
    08/17/20AmfrasersFrencken1.041.21outperformPER12x FY21
    08/17/20DMG & PartnersFu Yu0.240.3BuyDCF
    08/17/20DBS VickersFu Yu0.240.27HoldPER12.6x FY21
    08/17/20Lim & TanFu Yu0.240Buy
    08/17/20DMG & PartnersGolden Agri0.1540.13SellSum of parts
    08/17/20CIMBGolden Agri0.1540.12Reduce
    08/17/20CIMBKoufu0.6850.86Add
    08/17/20Lim & TanOverseas Edu0.290Buy
    08/17/20phillipPropnex0.590.7BuyDCF
    08/17/20UOB Kay HianSasseur0.7750.99BuyDDM
    08/17/20DBS VickersST Engineering3.393.4HoldSum of parts, Buy @ below $3.10
    08/17/20UOB Kay HianST Engineering3.393.4HoldBuy @ $3.15
    08/17/20CIMBST Engineering3.393.76Add
    08/17/20OCBCST Engineering3.393.9Buy
    08/17/20AmfrasersSunpower0.5750.91outperform
    08/17/20DMG & PartnersThai Beverage0.6050.72BuySum of parts
    08/17/20CIMBThai Beverage0.6050.7Hold
    08/17/20AmfrasersThai Beverage0.6050.93Outperform
    08/17/20AmfrasersUMS1.081.17NeutralPER13x FY21
    08/17/20UOB Kay HianVenture20.2517.64HoldPER14.4x FY21, Buy @ $16

    Singapore Nodx rose 6% in July 2020.

    https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-july-exports-rise-6-003000134.html
    Year on year changes (YOY):
    July 2020: 6%
    June 2020: 16.1% (Revised to 13.9%)
    May 2020: -4.6%
    April 2020: 9.7%
    March 2020: 17.6%
    February 2020: 3% (Revised to 3.1%)
    January 2020: - 3.3%
    December 2019: 2.4%
    November 2019: - 5.9%
    October 2019: - 12.3%
    September 2019: -8.1%
    August 2019: - 8.9%
    July 2019: -11.2%
    June 2019: -17.3%
    May 2019: -15.9%
    April 2019: -10%
    March 2019: -11.7%
    February 2019: 4.9%
    January 2019: -10.1%
    December 2018: -8.5%
    November 2018: -2.6%
    October 2018: 8.3%
    September 2018: 8.3%
    August 2018: 5%
    July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)
    June 2018: 1.1%
    May 2018: 15.5%
    April 2018: 11.8%
    March 2018: -2.7%
    February 2018: -5.9%
    January 2018: 13%
    December 2017: 3.1%
    November 2017: 9.1%
    October 2017: 20.9%
    September 2017: -1.1%
    August 2017: 16.7%
    July 2017: 8.5%
    June 2017: 8.2%
    May 2017: -1.2%
    Apr 2017: -0.7%
    Mar 2017: 16.5%
    Feb 2017: 21.1%
    Jan 2017: 8.6%

    Saturday, August 15, 2020

    Baltic dry index - 1577

    Today, Thursday, August 13 2020, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 37 points, reaching 1577 points.

    Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

    =========================

    Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

    US rig count - 935

     Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

    How do you interpret PPI vs CPI and their impacts on the economy?

    If you only know how to interpret the PPI and CPI headline numbers and their m-o-m or y-o-y changes, it only shows that you don't know how to analyze the data and also don't understand their economic relationship. 

    Well, different people interpret the same data set differently. Therefore, I will show you how a brilliant analyst (me) does it.

    Let's begin by looking at the economic relationship first.

    In economic terminology, the process is depicted as follow:
    CPI/PPI ----->> M1-M2 spread/3m-10y yield spread ----->> PMI ----->> GDP

    http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/the-true-picture-of-us-economy.html

    Next, we can learn about PPI and CPI impacts.

    In a nutshell, a producer will be motivated to produce more when the PPI is rising because of the rising profit margin while a rising CPI will sap consumer demands because it diminishes the consumer purchasing power.

    When the PPI is greater than the CPI, it will motivate the producer to produce more. Therefore, this phenomenon is known as an inventory growth phase and this will increase the GDP under the investment component (See below).

    GDP = Government spending + Investment + Consumption + Net Exports (X-M)

    The reverse is true when the PPI is lesser than the CPI since it motivates the producer to produce lesser. Thus, this phenomenon is known as an inventory reduction phrase and this will decrease the GDP.

    The most recent PPI vs CPI chart is showing that the PPI is below the CPI and is in the negative or contracting territory. Moreover, the recent upward slope of the PPI denotes that the producer is reducing the inventory passively instead of proactively (downward slope).

    How true is this conclusion (inventory reduction phase)?

    We can find another alternative variable (PMI inventories subindex) to verify and authenticate this.

    http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/08/us-ism-pmi-had-shown-great-improvement.html

    The PMI inventories subindex is in a contracting mode (below 50) which also substantiates our conclusion (inventory reduction phase).

    This conclusion (inventory reduction phase) is bad news for the GDP unless the other GDP components can neutralize this negative factor.

    Friday, August 14, 2020

    Kimly - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    08/13/19DMG & PartnersKimly0.2350.23NeutralDCF
    10/15/19DMG & PartnersKimly0.2250.23Neutral
    11/28/19DMG & PartnersKimly0.240.24NeutralDCF
    12/11/19DMG & PartnersKimly0.2450.24Neutral
    06/16/20DMG & PartnersKimly0.220.24Neutral
    06/26/20DMG & PartnersKimly0.2250.26BuyDCF

    Keppel Reit - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    07/04/19DMG & PartnersKeppel Reit1.281.12Neutral
    07/16/19CIMBKeppel Reit1.261.41AddDDM
    07/16/19DMG & PartnersKeppel Reit1.261.2NeutralDDM
    07/16/19UOB Kay HianKeppel Reit1.261.37Buy
    07/16/19DBS VickersKeppel Reit1.261.45BuyDCF
    07/16/19Lim & TanKeppel Reit1.260Hold
    08/06/19DBS VickersKeppel Reit1.21.45Buy
    08/27/19UOB Kay HianKeppel Reit1.241.21HoldBuy @ $1.1
    10/02/19DBS VickersKeppel Reit1.261.45BuyDCF
    10/02/19DMG & PartnersKeppel Reit1.261.23NeutralDDM
    10/17/19CIMBKeppel Reit1.241.35AddDDM
    10/17/19UOB Kay HianKeppel Reit1.241.2HoldDDM, Buy @ $1.1
    10/17/19Lim & TanKeppel Reit1.240Hold
    12/04/19DBS VickersKeppel Reit1.231.45Buy
    12/10/19DMG & PartnersKeppel Reit1.251.23Neutral
    01/24/20DBS VickersKeppel Reit1.271.45BuyDCF
    01/24/20CIMBKeppel Reit1.271.38Add
    02/04/20DBS VickersKeppel Reit1.211.45Buy
    03/18/20DBS VickersKeppel Reit0.961.45Buy
    04/13/20UOB Kay HianKeppel Reit0.951.3Buy
    04/23/20CIMBKeppel Reit0.991.2AddDDM
    04/23/20DMG & PartnersKeppel Reit0.991.23Neutral
    04/24/20Lim & TanKeppel Reit1.040Buy on weakness
    05/04/20DMG & PartnersKeppel Reit1.061.07NeutralDDM
    06/08/20DBS VickersKeppel Reit1.161.35BuyDCF
    06/08/20UOB Kay HianKeppel Reit1.161.3Buy
    06/23/20DMG & PartnersKeppel Reit1.131.07Neutral
    07/02/20UOB Kay HianKeppel Reit1.111.3Buy
    07/09/20DBS VickersKeppel Reit1.11.35Buy
    07/21/20DMG & PartnersKeppel Reit1.091.1NeutralDDM
    07/21/20Lim & TanKeppel Reit1.090Buy
    07/21/20CIMBKeppel Reit1.091.2Add