Stock calls for 25 August 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/25/20	UOB Kay Hian	Bumitama	0.515	0.52	Hold
08/25/20	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1	1.25	Buy	DDM
08/25/20	DBS Vickers	China Aviation Oil	0.865	1.2	Buy	PER11x FY20/21
08/25/20	phillip	City Developments	8	10.68	Buy	RNAV (30% discount)
08/25/20	UOB Kay Hian	Golden Agri	0.145	0.14	Hold
08/25/20	Lim & Tan	Guocoland	1.4	0	Accumulate
08/25/20	Lim & Tan	Koufu	0.675	0	Accumulate
08/25/20	CIMB	SATS	3.08	3	Hold	PB2.1x FY21
08/25/20	phillip	SATS	3.08	1.95	Sell	PB1.35x
08/25/20	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	3.08	2.67	Sell
08/25/20	Lim & Tan	SATS	3.08	0	Avoid

Olam - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
11/26/19	Lim & Tan	Olam	1.82	0	Hold

OCBC Bank - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.4	14.62	Buy
07/02/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.59	11.07	Hold
07/03/19	phillip	OCBC	11.54	12.7	Accumulate
07/08/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	11.39	12.2	Neutral	GGM, PB1.12x FY20
07/23/19	DBS Vickers	OCBC	11.64	11.5	Hold
08/02/19	Lim & Tan	OCBC	11.42	0	Buy on weakness
08/02/19	Citibank	OCBC	11.42	12.3	Hold
08/05/19	phillip	OCBC	11.21	12.5	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.3x
08/05/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	11.21	11.8	Neutral	GGM, PB1.1x FY20
08/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.21	14.48	Buy	GGM, PB1.4x FY19
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	OCBC	11.21	11.5	Hold	GGM, PB1.1x FY20
08/06/19	CIMB	OCBC	11.08	12.59	Hold	GGM, PB1.3x
08/06/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.08	11.05	Hold	DDM
08/20/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	10.71	11.5	Neutral	GGM, PB1.07x FY20
08/21/19	CIMB	OCBC	10.69	12.53	Hold
09/02/19	phillip	OCBC	10.65	12.32	Accumulate	GGM
09/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	10.71	14.48	Buy	GGM, PB1.4x FY19
09/26/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	10.77	11.05	Neutral
09/26/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	10.77	11.5	Neutral	GGM, PB1.07x FY20
09/27/19	CIMB	OCBC	10.82	12.53	Hold
10/04/19	phillip	OCBC	10.71	12.32	Accumulate
10/17/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	10.86	14.45	Buy	GGM, PB1.4x FY19
10/23/19	DBS Vickers	OCBC	10.71	11.5	Hold
11/05/19	phillip	OCBC	11.07	12.32	Accumulate
11/05/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	11.07	11.5	Neutral	GGM, PB1.08x FY20
11/05/19	Lim & Tan	OCBC	11.07	0	Buy
11/05/19	Citibank	OCBC	11.07	11	Hold
11/05/19	Jefferies	OCBC	11.07	11.5	Hold
11/06/19	Macquarie	OCBC	11.08	12.4	Outperform	PB
11/06/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.08	11.26	Hold	DDM
11/06/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.08	14.45	Buy	GGM, PB1.4x FY19
11/06/19	DBS Vickers	OCBC	11.08	11.5	Hold	GGM, PB1.1x FY20
11/07/19	phillip	OCBC	11.1	11.7	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.1x
12/02/19	CIMB	OCBC	10.78	11.94	Hold
12/02/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	10.78	11.26	Hold
12/03/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	10.75	11.5	Neutral
12/03/19	DBS Vickers	OCBC	10.75	11.5	Hold
12/04/19	phillip	OCBC	10.68	11.7	Accumulate
01/03/20	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.03	14.45	Buy
01/08/20	CIMB	OCBC	11	11.94	Hold
02/03/20	DBS Vickers	OCBC	10.83	11.5	Hold	GGM, PB1x FY20
02/10/20	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	10.86	12.8	Buy
02/19/20	Macquarie	OCBC	10.97	12.4	Outperform
02/24/20	phillip	OCBC	11.02	12.1	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.11x FY20
02/24/20	DMG & Partners	OCBC	11.02	11.2	Neutral	GGM, PB1.03x FY20
02/24/20	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.02	12.68	Buy
02/24/20	Citibank	OCBC	11.02	11.6	Hold
02/24/20	Jefferies	OCBC	11.02	11	Hold
02/25/20	Kim Eng	OCBC	10.92	11.57	Hold
03/02/20	DBS Vickers	OCBC	10.6	11.5	Hold
03/04/20	Citibank	OCBC	10.65	11	Hold
03/05/20	Macquarie	OCBC	10.55	12.4	Outperform
03/05/20	DBS Vickers	OCBC	10.55	11	Hold	GGM, PB1x FY20
03/05/20	CIMB	OCBC	10.55	11.05	Hold
03/09/20	Citibank	OCBC	10.21	8.85	Sell
03/10/20	phillip	OCBC	9.52	12.1	Accumulate
03/11/20	Jefferies	OCBC	9.72	11	Buy
03/17/20	DMG & Partners	OCBC	8.7	9.6	Buy	GGM, PB0.89x FY20
03/17/20	DBS Vickers	OCBC	8.7	8.6	Hold	GGM, PB0.8x FY20
03/17/20	Jefferies	OCBC	8.7	10	Buy
03/19/20	Macquarie	OCBC	8.49	10.5	Outperform
03/20/20	CIMB	OCBC	8.08	9.04	Add
03/31/20	DMG & Partners	OCBC	8.52	9.6	Neutral
04/01/20	DBS Vickers	OCBC	8.54	8.6	Hold
04/01/20	Jefferies	OCBC	8.54	10	Buy
04/01/20	Citibank	OCBC	8.54	8.85	Sell
04/08/20	Kim Eng	OCBC	8.93	10.32	Buy	DDM
04/13/20	phillip	OCBC	8.95	12.1	Accumulate
04/22/20	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	8.7	9.78	Buy
04/22/20	DMG & Partners	OCBC	8.7	9	Neutral	GGM, PB0.84x FY20
04/23/20	DBS Vickers	OCBC	8.62	7.9	Hold	GGM, PB0.7x FY21
04/24/20	Macquarie	OCBC	8.65	10	Outperform
05/11/20	phillip	OCBC	8.88	9.14	Accumulate	GGM, PB0.85x
05/11/20	Citi Research	OCBC	8.88	7.75	Sell
05/11/20	DMG & Partners	OCBC	8.88	8.7	Hold	GGM, PB0.81x FY20
05/11/20	Kim Eng	OCBC	8.88	9.46	Hold	DDM
05/11/20	DBS Vickers	OCBC	8.88	7.9	Hold	GGM, PB0.7x FY21
05/11/20	Lim & Tan	OCBC	8.88	0	Accumulate
05/11/20	CIMB	OCBC	8.88	8.37	Hold
05/11/20	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	8.88	9.78	Buy	PB0.8x FY20
05/13/20	Macquarie	OCBC	8.89	9.67	Outperform	PB
05/13/20	Jefferies	OCBC	8.89	8.4	Hold
06/01/20	DBS Vickers	OCBC	8.55	7.9	Hold	GGM, PB0.7x FY21
06/05/20	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	9.3	12.18	Buy
06/08/20	phillip	OCBC	9.44	9.14	Neutral
06/08/20	Citi Research	OCBC	9.44	10.85	Buy
06/11/20	Macquarie	OCBC	9.73	11.2	Outperform
06/18/20	DMG & Partners	OCBC	9.16	8.7	Neutral
07/01/20	CIMB	OCBC	9	8.37	Hold
07/03/20	phillip	OCBC	9.18	9.14	Neutral
07/06/20	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	9.2	12.18	Buy
07/07/20	Macquarie	OCBC	9.33	11.2	Outperform	PB
07/08/20	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	9.24	11.58	Buy
07/21/20	Jefferies	OCBC	9.18	8.88	Hold
07/21/20	Kim Eng	OCBC	9.18	9.15	Hold
07/22/20	DBS Vickers	OCBC	9.21	9.3	Hold	GGM, PB0.8x FY21
07/30/20	Macquarie	OCBC	8.9	11	Outperform	PB
07/30/20	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	8.9	11.22	Buy
08/04/20	Macquarie	OCBC	8.52	10.65	Outperform	PB
08/07/20	DBS Vickers	OCBC	8.8	9.3	Hold	GGM, PB0.8x FY21
08/07/20	Lim & Tan	OCBC	8.8	0	Buy on weakness
08/07/20	CIMB	OCBC	8.8	8.37	Hold
08/11/20	DMG & Partners	OCBC	8.72	8.7	Neutral	GGM, PB0.81x FY20
08/11/20	Kim Eng	OCBC	8.72	9.06	Hold
08/11/20	CIMB	OCBC	8.72	9.19	Hold
08/11/20	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	8.72	10.82	Buy
08/12/20	Macquarie	OCBC	8.76	8.85	Neutral
08/13/20	phillip	OCBC	8.86	8.92	Accumulate	GGM, PB0.84x

Netlink - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/15/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.88	0.93	Accumulate	DCF
07/17/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.885	0.94	Buy
08/06/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.88	0.92	Buy	DCF
08/06/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.88	0.93	Accumulate	DCF
08/07/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.865	0.94	Buy	DDM
08/07/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.865	0.95	Buy	DCF
10/07/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.9	1.01	Buy	DCF
10/11/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.91	0.93	Accumulate
10/17/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.9	1.03	Buy	DDM
10/18/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.91	0.95	Buy
11/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.935	1.01	Buy	DCF
11/04/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.935	0.99	Accumulate	DCF
11/05/19	OCBC	Netlink	0.955	1.03	Buy
11/05/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.955	1.04	Buy	DCF
11/05/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.955	1.06	Buy
01/03/20	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.94	1.04	Buy	DCF
01/30/20	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	1	1.05	Buy	DCF
02/10/20	DBS Vickers	Netlink	1.01	1.04	Buy	DCF
02/11/20	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	1	1.05	Buy	DCF
02/12/20	DBS Vickers	Netlink	1	1.05	Buy	DCF
02/14/20	Phillip	Netlink	1.01	0.99	Neutral	DCF
03/02/20	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.98	1.05	Buy
03/23/20	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.9	0.95	Buy	DCF
05/08/20	DBS Vickers	Netlink	1	1.02	Hold	DCF
05/11/20	phillip	Netlink	0.985	1.03	Accumulate	DCF
05/11/20	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.985	1.08	Buy
06/26/20	Morgan Stanley	Netlink	0.975	1	Overweight
07/13/20	OCBC	Netlink	0.98	1.1	Buy
07/28/20	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.965	1.08	Buy	DDM
08/07/20	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.97	1.02	Hold	DCF
08/07/20	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.97	1.07	Buy	DDM
08/07/20	OCBC	Netlink	0.97	1.1	Buy
08/11/20	phillip	Netlink	0.965	1.03	Accumulate	DCF
08/11/20	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.965	1.08	Buy	DCF
08/13/20	CIMB	Netlink	0.965	1.1	Add

Stock calls for 24 August 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/24/20	OCBC	Capitamall Trust	1.85	2.29	Buy
08/24/20	phillip	Dasin Retail	0.815	0.91	Accumulate	DDM
08/24/20	OCBC	ESR-Reit	0.385	0.45	Buy
08/24/20	OCBC	Frasers Logistics	1.38	1.59	Buy
08/24/20	Lim & Tan	Frencken	0.96	1.26	Accumulate
08/24/20	Lim & Tan	Genting	0.695	0	Sell
08/24/20	Amfrasers	Jiutian	0.046	0.068	Outperform
08/24/20	OCBC	Manulife US Reit	0.745	0.84	Buy
08/24/20	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	0.905	1.09	Buy
08/24/20	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	1.08	1.22	Hold	Sum of parts
08/24/20	Amfrasers	Yanlord	1.25	1.52	Outperform

Market distortions are precursors of an impending financial crisis.

Many analysts touted the mantra "Don't fight the FED" to induce people to invest.  However, these analysts do not understand true economics.  When the monetary pumping by the FED exceeds a certain threshold, the excessive money supplies will become useless and cannot save the economy.  Instead, excessive monetary policies will create market distortions (bubbles) and cause a financial crisis.

There are precursory signs in of distortions in different markets already.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/08/the-us-property-market-is-becoming.html

The property transaction volume and average selling price are trending higher in an economic downturn and this is an aberration because the general public cannot be upgrading in a bad time.  In a normal situation, people will upgrade in good times and downgrade in bad times.  This upward trend in a downturn shows that massive hot money (professional fund) has entered the US property market.  We are also seeing this phenomenon in the stock market.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/08/the-us-resale-car-market-is-being.html

Baltic dry index- 1481

Today, Friday, August 21 2020, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 37 points, reaching 1,481 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

========================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 916

 

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

The US property market is becoming distorted now!

 

The US residential property market is rebounding because of the artificially low mortgage rates and MBS purchases by the US FED.  The existing residential sales are at a 5-year high now with a high unemployment number and bad GDP number (-32.9% in Q2).

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/05/the-us-debt-market-is-going-to-implode.html

Even the CMBS market is also being affected now as shown below.  All these distortions are caused by the US FED with its stimulus.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-scoop-office-cmbs-even-144158773.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/05/us-cmbs-is-in-precarious-situation-now_22.html

There are many market distortions showing up in the US now after the US government and FED dole the stimulus out.  There will be a big price to pay when these markets return to normalcy because these bubbles will burst.

The US resale car market is being distorted like the stock market. Who is to blame?

https://www.poynter.org/reporting-editing/2020/used-car-prices-are-spiking-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic/

If you just look at the US July resale car prices, you will be thinking that the US economy is booming because Americans are rushing to buy cars at higher prices as they've made a lot of monies.

However, the US GDP collapsed by 32.9% in Q2 and the resale car prices were crashing in April 2020.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/red-alert-us-economy-is-going-to.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/05/the-us-debt-market-is-going-to-implode.html

What is happening here?

The US resale car market is being distorted by the US FED and government.  The US FED started buying auto-maker bonds to support the automobiles industry and the government also started giving out US$600 weekly pandemic relief aids to its citizens simultaneously.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/06/the-us-debt-market-is-going-to-implode.html

The US FED bond purchases have greatly reduced the vehicles' inventories for the individual buyers which cause the resale prices to spike.  Therefore, the resale car prices are being supported artificially and the resale market prices will return to normalcy when the US FED and government stop providing the stimulus.  I foresee that this will create bubbles in the resale and debt markets and these bubbles will burst in the future since some resale car prices are approaching new car prices.

Moya Asia - Stock calls

 

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/20/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.068	0.083	Buy	DCF
10/15/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.065	0.08	Buy
01/09/20	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.08	0.093	Buy	DCF
03/02/20	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.073	0.082	Buy	DCF

MM2 Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.23	0.34	Buy	PER16x FY20
08/15/19	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.197	0.29	Buy	Sum of parts
08/20/19	Kim Eng	MM2 Asia	0.186	0.2	Hold	PEG1x
10/09/19	CIMB	MM2 Asia	0.215	0.32	Add	Sum of parts
11/15/19	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.285	0.3	Hold	Sum of parts, PER12.8x FY20
03/25/20	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.124	0.107	Fully Valued
06/02/20	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.175	0.14	Fully Valued	Sum of parts, PER6x FY21

Mindchamps - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/27/19	DMG & Partners	Mindchamps	0.525	0.83	Buy
12/11/19	DMG & Partners	Mindchamps	0.46	0.87	Buy
03/02/20	DMG & Partners	Mindchamps	0.395	0.37	Neutral	DCF

Stock calls for 21 August 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/21/20	CIMB	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.37	2.78	Add	DDM
08/21/20	Lim & Tan	Innotek	0.39	0.5	Accumulate
08/21/20	Phillip	JEP	0.19	0.158	Reduce	PB1x
08/21/20	Lim & Tan	Singapore Medical	0.245	0	Accumulate
08/21/20	Phillip	Yoma	0.29	0.46	Buy	Sum of parts (20% discount)

Micro-Mechanics - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/03/19	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.59	1.6	Neutral	PER15x FY20
11/05/19	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.9	1.6	Reduce
02/12/20	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.88	1.6	Reduce	PER15x FY20
04/27/20	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.64	1.6	Neutral
04/29/20	UOB Kay Hian	Micro-Mechanics	1.7	1.82	Hold	Buy @ $1.55
06/24/20	Lim & Tan	Micro-Mechanics	1.78	0	Buy on weakness

Mermaid - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/29/20	Amfrasers	Mermaid	0.07	0.085	Neutral	Sum of parts