Just as expected, the S&P 500 traded between the drawn resistance and support levels.
We need to wait for S&P to breach either side to determine its trend. Thereafter, we will need to draw the new lines again.
Discussion forum on Singapore stocks and current affairs.
Just as expected, the S&P 500 traded between the drawn resistance and support levels.
We need to wait for S&P to breach either side to determine its trend. Thereafter, we will need to draw the new lines again.
Today, Friday, September 25 2020, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 62 points, reaching 1667 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean
The US imports have surged as the retailers are stockpiling in view of the COVID resurgence situation.
In August, we had analyzed that the US was undergoing an inventory reduction phase and we were correct in our analysis.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/08/how-do-you-interpret-ppi-vs-cpi-and.html
Then, in September, we concluded that the US would end its inventory reduction phase after our PMI analysis.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/09/the-us-ism-pmi-improved-again-in-august.html
The US retailers' stockpiling have corroborated our PMI analysis that the US inventory reduction phase would end soon.S&P 500
I was asked about the types of technical analysis that I used. Thus, I would like to give my opinion about technical analysis.
I am a fundamental analyst more than a technical analyst because I've more faith in the fundamental analysis due to my life experiences.
Let me begin the journey with LTCM.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management
Basically, LTCM was a quantitative fund management firm which was managed by 2 economics Nobel prize laureates and many PHDs in mathematics and computing, and also top technical analysts. The failure of LTCM had shown that technical analysis per se didn't work.
Furthermore, there is not a billionaire now who uses technical analysis. The only billionaire is Warren Buffett who uses fundamental analysis per se and he doesn't believe in technical analysis.
Since I am neither a Nobel laureate nor a PHD in maths or computing, I will stick to do what I do best which is fundamental analysis.
Nevertheless, I will still give my technical analysis for S&P. Technical analysis is something subjective and different people will interpret it differently because different people have different time horizons in investments.
I am a swing or position trader technically instead of a day trader. For explanation purpose, I will use publicly available charting tools to illustrate my technical analysis.
I've drawn 2 lines on the chart. The recent 2 high points line will be the resistance level and the 2 low points line will be the support line. Furthermore, I've added Bollinger bands (2 Std Dev, 95% inclusion), 60-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), 100-day SMA, RSI and Stochastics to the chart.
From the chart, it looks like the S&P is at a pivoting point whereby it will either rebound or continue its downtrend. If the S&P breaches the 100-day SMA or my support level (also near 100-day SMA), it will continue to fall further. However, if the S&P closes above my resistance level and/or climbs above the 60-day SMA, then the S&P will continue its recovery. As for the RSI, the recovery will take place after it crosses the 50 level mark on the chart. The stochastics are in oversold territory but are stagnant now. Thus, a stochastics upward crossover will signal a recovery in the S&P.
In conclusion, I will adopt a wait-and-see position for the technical signals to be clearer first.
The technical indicators that I commonly used for my investment time horizon:
5-day SMA
10-day SMA
20-day SMA
60-day SMA
Bollinger bands (2 std dev)
Self-drawn technical lines (resistance and support lines)
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Momentum indicator (Stochastics or DMI)
Last but not least, I use candlesticks just to determine their high-low points and also to check for any candlestick's gap. I don't interpret the candlesticks' patterns (doji, hammer, etc) because they were invented based on perishable commodities.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/duterte-gets-rare-praise-raising-103654139.html
The Philippines has disgraced itself in the UN by raising a fake international court ruling (PCA).
We had stated that PCA was not an international court previously.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2016/07/the-truth-about-south-china-sea-ruling.html
The UN also stated that PCA was not under the UN because its international court was ICJ.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2016/07/icj-has-declared-that-it-is-not.html
By bringing up a fake international court ruling in the UN, the Philippines only serves to disgrace itself because the true international court is ICJ which is under the UN. By the way, the Philippines has not recovered the US$30m spent for the fake court ruling from the US yet.
NATO tried to shift and pin its reprehensive act on China when the fundamental cause of the war was orchestrated by the US. We had stated pr...