Hong Leong Finance - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/30/26	DBS Vickers	Hong Leong Finance	2.69	3.2	Buy	PB0.7x FY26

Stock calls for 5 May 2026

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/05/26	CIMB	AEM	7.42	10.15	Add	PER
05/05/26	DBS Vickers	Frasers Logistics	0.97	1.05	Buy	DCF
05/05/26	Lim & Tan	Frasers Logistics	0.97	1.1	Accumulate
05/05/26	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	10.87	12.94	Accumulate
05/05/26	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	3.04	3.45	Buy
05/05/26	DBS Vickers	Ultragreen	1.49	2	Buy	PER26x FY26
05/05/26	Amfrasers	Winking	0.23	0.3	Outperform	DCF

Hong Leong Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/14/25	UOB Kay Hian	Hong Leong Asia	1	1.11	Buy	Sum of parts
03/24/25	UOB Kay Hian	Hong Leong Asia	1.02	1.46	Buy	Sum of parts
05/27/25	UOB Kay Hian	Hong Leong Asia	1.17	1.46	Buy	Sum of parts
06/23/25	UOB Kay Hian	Hong Leong Asia	1.33	1.46	Buy	Sum of parts
07/07/25	CIMB	Hong Leong Asia	1.6	1.95	Add
07/10/25	UOB Kay Hian	Hong Leong Asia	1.63	1.93	Buy	Sum of parts
08/18/25	UOB Kay Hian	Hong Leong Asia	1.88	2.63	Buy	Sum of parts
08/19/25	DBS Vickers	Hong Leong Asia	1.95	2.8	Buy	Sum of parts
08/25/25	OCBC	Hong Leong Asia	2.4	3.4	Buy
09/15/25	UOB Kay Hian	Hong Leong Asia	2.43	2.82	Buy	Sum of parts
11/26/25	UOB Kay Hian	Hong Leong Asia	2.13	2.82	Buy	Sum of parts
01/29/26	UOB Kay Hian	Hong Leong Asia	3.15	4.2	Buy	Sum of parts
02/02/26	OCBC	Hong Leong Asia	3.43	3.5	Buy	DCF
02/27/26	DBS Vickers	Hong Leong Asia	3.06	3.9	Buy	Sum of parts
02/27/26	OCBC	Hong Leong Asia	3.06	4.2	Buy	DCF
03/03/26	UOB Kay Hian	Hong Leong Asia	3.1	4.71	Buy	Sum of parts
03/27/26	Lim & Tan	Hong Leong Asia	2.85	4.2	Accumulate
03/30/26	DBS Vickers	Hong Leong Asia	2.84	3.9	Buy	Sum of parts
04/22/26	DBS Vickers	Hong Leong Asia	3.17	3.9	Buy	Sum of parts
04/22/26	UOB Kay Hian	Hong Leong Asia	3.17	4.9	Buy	Sum of parts
05/04/26	UOB Kay Hian	Hong Leong Asia	2.91	4.9	Buy	Sum of parts

Ho Bee - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/10/25	Lim & Tan	Ho Bee	1.89	0	Accumulate
03/06/26	DBS Vickers	Ho Bee	2.18	2.82	Buy	RNAV (50% disc)

Haw Par - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/29/25	DBS Vickers	Haw Par	13.55	23.5	Buy
03/23/26	Macquarie	Haw Par	15.9	20.6	outperform

Stock calls for 4 May 2026

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/04/26	UOB Kay Hian	Beng Kuang Marine	0.485	0.64	Buy	PER12.1x FY27
05/04/26	Uob Kay Hian	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.36	2.95	Buy	DDM
05/04/26	CIMB	CDL Hospitality	0.81	0.9	Add	DDM
05/04/26	UOB Kay Hian	China Aviation Oil	2.12	2.63	Buy	PER15x FY26
05/04/26	UOB Kay Hian	City Developments	8.16	11.5	Buy	RNAV (15% disc)
05/04/26	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	58.5	65.2	Buy	GGM, PB2.62x FY26
05/04/26	phillip	DBS	58.5	61	Accumulate	GGM, PB2.51x FY26
05/04/26	Kim Eng	Far East Hospitality	0.575	0.65	Buy	DDM
05/04/26	Lim & Tan	Far East Hospitality	0.575	0.71	Accumulate
05/04/26	UOB Kay Hian	Food Empire	3.26	4.21	Buy	PER25x FY26
05/04/26	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Logistics	0.96	1.22	Buy	DDM
05/04/26	UOB Kay Hian	Hong Leong Asia	2.91	4.9	Buy	Sum of parts
05/04/26	UOB Kay Hian	Huationg Global	0.88	1.23	Buy	PER11x FY26
05/04/26	DBS Vickers	Jardine C&C	32.58	38.5	Buy	Sum of parts (5% disc)
05/04/26	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Corp	10.87	13.23	Buy	PER18x
05/04/26	CIMB	Lum Chang Creations	1.03	1.32	Add	PER
05/04/26	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Commercial	1.29	1.75	Buy	DDM
05/04/26	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Industrial	1.97	2.07	Hold	DDM
05/04/26	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Logistics	1.22	1.29	Hold	DDM
05/04/26	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Logistics	1.22	1.55	Buy	DCF
05/04/26	CIMB	Mapletree Logistics	1.22	1.48	Add	DDM
05/04/26	UOB Kay Hian	NTT DC Reit	0.98	1.42	Buy	DDM
05/04/26	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	21.9	25.3	Buy	GGM, PB1.76x FY26
05/04/26	UOB Kay Hian	Oiltek	2.27	2.78	Buy	PER28x FY27
05/04/26	Kim Eng	Olam	1.02	1.6	Buy	Sum of parts
05/04/26	DBS Vickers	Parkway Life	4.02	4.75	Buy	DCF
05/04/26	OCBC	Parkway Life	4.02	4.82	Buy
05/04/26	CIMB	Parkway Life	4.02	4.97	Add	DDM
05/04/26	Lim & Tan	Parkway Life	4.02	4.83	Accumulate on weakness
05/04/26	UOB Kay Hian	Sheng Siong	3.03	3.4	Buy	PER31x FY27
05/04/26	phillip	Sheng Siong	3.03	3.16	Accumulate	PER28x FY26
05/04/26	UOB Kay Hian	Ultragreen	1.46	1.95	Buy	PER26x FY26
05/04/26	UOB Kay Hian	Valuetronics	1.02	1.03	Buy	PER13x FY27
05/04/26	CIMB	Venture	16.2	21.78	Add

The Iran war situation report. - Part 55

The US has underestimated the strong Iranian's resolve to maintain the Hormuz blockage by providing martime escorts through Hormuz.

Iran has shown its strong resolve by hitting US warship with 2 missiles.  What does this mean?  This means no shipper will dare to pass through Hormuz without Iran's permission anymore because Iran dares to hit the US navy that provides the maritime escort service.

Baltic dry index - 2730

Related stock: Seatrium, Cosco & Pan Ocean.

US rig count (weekly) - 547

 Related stock: Seatrium & Cosco.

The latest ISM PMI report showed spiking inflation! - Part 2

 

Missing parameter:

Estimated Local New Orders: New orders - New Export Orders = 0.6 - (-2) = 2.6

Estimated Local Material: Inventories - Imports = (-1) - (-2.3) = -1.3

The new order increased (+0.6) because the US consumers were frontloading their purchases (local new orders: +2.6) due to the spiking US inflation prices (+6.3).

However, the producers regarded this frontloading phenomenon as unsustainable and reduced their production (-1.7) and employment (-2.3) instead because new export orders were declining (-2).

The frontloading purchases also caused the customers' inventories and backlog of orders to decline respectively (-1 & -3).

The high prices (84.6, +6.3) were caused by the Iran war and would continue to devastate the US economic growth and PMI if the Iran war continues for a few more months.

US Q1 2026 GDP growth: 2%

US Q1 2026 GDP growth: 2%

Let's break down the GDP to see what had changed from the previous quarter.

GDP growth = G + I + C + NE

Q4 GDP (2025) = (-0.99) + 0.4 + 1.3 + (-0.22) = 0.49 (0.5)

Q1 GDP (1st estimate) = 0.73 + 1.48 + 1.08 + (-1.3) = 1.99 (2)

The US government spending (G) had been increased to boost the US GDP growth.  However, the spiking inflation was causing consumption (C) to fall from 1.3 to 1.08 and this decline in C had boosted the investment (I) because of increasing stockpiles (unsold inventories).  The Iran war had caused the international trades to decline and it had also affected the US exports (Net Export was negative).

Therefore, this is not an impressive GDP report because we can see weaknesses ahead.

US core PCE had spiked in Q1 2026.

 
The current Iran war had caused the Q1 core PCE to spike to 4.3%.  If this trend continues, the US Fed won't be able to ease its rates.

Hafary - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/07/26	Tickrs Financial	Hafary	0.465	0.58	Buy

GuocoLand - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/18/25	DBS Vickers	GuocoLand	1.76	2	Buy	RNAV (50% disc)
09/01/25	DBS Vickers	GuocoLand	1.86	2.5	Buy	RNAV (45% disc)
10/08/25	DBS Vickers	GuocoLand	2.06	2.5	Buy	RNAV (45% disc)
01/30/26	DBS Vickers	GuocoLand	2.68	3.3	Buy	RNAV (35% disc)
04/06/26	uSMART	GuocoLand	2.37	3.17	Buy

Great Eastern - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/06/25	EY	Great Eastern	25.8	25.6	Accept Offer	Offer @ $30.15
06/10/25	DMG & Partners	Great Eastern	25.8	30.15	Accept Offer	Offer @ $30.15