President Trump has distorted the US GDP!

Let's break down the GDP numbers to see what had happened.

GDP growth = G + I + C + NE

Q2 GDP (1st estimate) = 0.08 + (-3.09) + 0.98 + 4.99 = 2.96 (3)

Q2 GDP (2nd estimate) = (-0.03) + (-2.7) + 1.07 + 4.95 = 3.29 (3.3)

From the comparison between the 2 estimates, we can see that both the government spending (G) and Investment (I) are negative.  The biggest contributor to the GDP forecast is net export (NE) and this means that the US export exceeds import by a big margin.  What is happening here?  Trump has been forcing other countries to buy US goods and restricting imports by imposing high tariffs.  Consequently, the decline in US import is causing the investment (I) to be negative. 

However, there is only a marginal change in consumption (C) and this means the US consumers are still holding back their spendings.  In a nutshell, Trump has distorted the US GDP.

Last but not least, we can see that the core PCE remains at 2.5% in Q2 2025 which means the US inflation is no longer trending down.

Lum Chang Creations - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/11/25	Lim & Tan	Lum Chang Creations	0.25	0.38	Subscribe	IPO $0.25
07/18/25	UOB Kay Hian	Lum Chang Creations	0.25	0.39	Buy	PER9.5x FY26
08/20/25	Lim & Tan	Lum Chang Creations	0.445	0.49	Accumulate	PER9.6x FY26
08/27/25	CIMB	Lum Chang Creations	0.55	0.81	Add

Lion-Phillip - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
10/18/24	Phillip	Lion-Phillip	0.882	0.91	Accumulate
02/05/25	Phillip	Lion-Phillip	0.775	0.86	Accumulate

LHN - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/07/24	UOB Kay Hian	LHN	0.33	0.4	Buy	PER9x FY24
08/22/24	Lim & Tan	LHN	0.325	0.41	Accumulate
09/05/24	Kim Eng	LHN	0.34		Buy
09/20/24	UOB Kay Hian	LHN	0.355	0.4	Buy	PER9x FY24
12/03/24	Kim Eng	LHN	0.44	0.55	Buy
12/04/24	Phillip	LHN	0.44	0.56	Buy	PER6.5x FY25
12/31/24	Lim & Tan	LHN	0.51	0.56	Accumulate
03/06/25	Kim Eng	LHN	0.46	0.55	Buy
03/06/25	Lim & Tan	LHN	0.46	0.55	Accumulate
03/12/25	Phillip	LHN	0.46	0.56	Buy	PER6.5x FY25
04/16/25	Lim & Tan	LHN	0.42	0.56	Accumulate
05/16/25	Lim & Tan	LHN	0.495	0.56	Accumulate
05/19/25	Phillip	LHN	0.505	0.61	Buy	PER7x FY25
05/19/25	Kim Eng	LHN	0.505	0.55	Buy
05/26/25	Lim & Tan	LHN	0.505	0	Accumulate on weakness
06/03/25	Lim & Tan	LHN	0.515	0.6	Accumulate on weakness
06/26/25	DBS Vickers	LHN	0.64	0.81	Not Rated	Sum of parts
07/09/25	CIMB	LHN	0.76	1	Add

Stock calls for 28 August 2025

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/28/25	Lim & Tan	ART	0.875	1.08	Accumulate
08/28/25	OCBC	Bumitama	1.09	1.2	Hold
08/28/25	DBS Vickers	Food Empire	2.37	2.68	Unrated	Sum of parts
08/28/25	Lim & Tan	Seatrium	2.29	2.75	Accumulate on weakness
08/28/25	Citi Research	Seatrium	2.29	2.65	Buy
08/28/25	DMG & Partners	Starhill	0.545	0.6	Buy

Lendlease Reit - Sttock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/04/24	UOB Kay Hian	Lendlease Reit	0.55	0.96	Buy
06/24/24	Phillip	Lendlease Reit	0.57	0.83	Buy	DDM
07/02/24	UOB Kay Hian	Lendlease Reit	0.56	0.85	Buy
07/15/24	DBS Vickers	Lendlease Reit	0.605	0.9	Buy
07/22/24	Phillip	Lendlease Reit	0.56	0.83	Buy	DDM
07/29/24	Kim Eng	Lendlease Reit	0.6	0.7	Buy
08/07/24	Phillip	Lendlease Reit	0.565	0.8	Buy	DDM
08/07/24	DBS Vickers	Lendlease Reit	0.565	0.75	Buy
08/13/24	CIMB	Lendlease Reit	0.55	0.74	Add
08/13/24	Citi Research	Lendlease Reit	0.55	0.58	Hold
09/06/24	CIMB	Lendlease Reit	0.595	0.71	Add	DDM
10/03/24	Lim & Tan	Lendlease Reit	0.625	0.73	Accumulate
11/01/24	UOB Kay Hian	Lendlease Reit	0.575	0.73	Buy	DDM
11/12/24	DBS Vickers	Lendlease Reit	0.565	0.75	Buy
11/13/24	Phillip	Lendlease Reit	0.57	0.8	Buy	DDM
11/13/24	UOB Kay Hian	Lendlease Reit	0.57	0.77	Buy	DDM
11/27/24	Phillip	Lendlease Reit	0.565	0.76	Buy	DDM
01/02/25	UOB Kay Hian	Lendlease Reit	0.55	0.77	Buy	DDM
02/05/25	Phillip	Lendlease Reit	0.54	0.74	Buy	DDM
02/05/25	CIMB	Lendlease Reit	0.54	0.69	Add	DDM
02/07/25	UOB Kay Hian	Lendlease Reit	0.53	0.72	Buy	DDM
02/07/25	DBS Vickers	Lendlease Reit	0.53	0.75	Buy
03/06/25	UOB Kay Hian	Lendlease Reit	0.49	0.72	Buy	DDM
04/01/25	UOB Kay Hian	Lendlease Reit	0.51	0.72	Buy	DDM
05/08/25	DBS Vickers	Lendlease Reit	0.515	0.75	Buy
05/09/25	Phillip	Lendlease Reit	0.505	0.69	Buy	DDM
05/21/25	UOB Kay Hian	Lendlease Reit	0.49	0.72	Buy	DDM
05/21/25	Citi Research	Lendlease Reit	0.49	0.49	Hold	DDM
06/20/25	DBS Vickers	Lendlease Reit	0.5	0.75	Buy	DCF
06/27/25	UOB Kay Hian	Lendlease Reit	0.515	0.8	Buy	DDM
07/03/25	UOB Kay Hian	Lendlease Reit	0.53	0.76	Buy	DDM
08/01/25	UOB Kay Hian	Lendlease Reit	0.55	0.76	Buy	DDM
08/05/25	DBS Vickers	Lendlease Reit	0.565	0.75	Buy	DCF
08/05/25	Lim & Tan	Lendlease Reit	0.565	0.63	Accumulate
08/06/25	Phillip	Lendlease Reit	0.575	0.7	Buy	DDM
08/08/25	CIMB	Lendlease Reit	0.575	0.67	Add	DDM
08/11/25	UOB Kay Hian	Lendlease Reit	0.575	0.79	Buy	DDM
08/26/25	Citi Research	Lendlease Reit	0.595	0.66	Buy	DDM

Ley Choon - Stock call

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/02/25	Lim & Tan	Ley Choon	0.067	0	Accumulate

KSH - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
11/15/24	Lim & Tan	KSH	0.2	0	Accumulate
05/30/25	Lim & Tan	KSH	0.235	0	Accumulate
07/17/25	Lim & Tan	KSH	0.28	0	Accumulate on weakness

Stock calls for 27 August 2025

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/27/25	OCBC	Bumitama	1.12	1.2	Buy
08/27/25	CIMB	Lum Chang Creations	0.55	0.81	Add
08/27/25	UOB Kay Hian	Marco Polo	0.067	0.088	Buy
08/27/25	Kim Eng	Marco Polo	0.067	0.09	Buy	PER11x FY26
08/27/25	phillip	Pacific Radiance	0.067	0.098	Buy	PER8x FY26
08/27/25	Lim & Tan	Thomson Medical	0.06	0.049	Hold
08/27/25	Lim & Tan	Wing Tai	1.4	0	Hold

Kimly - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/22/24	UOB Kay Hian	Kimly	0.31	0.35	Hold
12/09/24	UOB Kay Hian	Kimly	0.32	0.34	Hold	PER12x FY25

Keppel Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/04/24	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	0.855	1.2	Buy	DDM
06/26/24	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	0.84	1.08	Buy
07/02/24	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	0.84	1.15	Buy	DDM
07/25/24	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	0.875	1.15	Buy
07/25/24	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	0.875	1.08	Buy
07/29/24	Kim Eng	Keppel Reit	0.875	1	Buy
07/31/24	CIMB	Keppel Reit	0.885	1.15	Add	DDM
07/31/24	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	0.885	1.05	Buy	DDM
08/01/24	Lim & Tan	Keppel Reit	0.875	1.01	Accumulate
08/05/24	Kim Eng	Keppel Reit	0.88	1	Buy	DDM
08/05/24	OCBC	Keppel Reit	0.88	0.98	Buy
08/22/24	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	0.855	1.15	Buy	DDM
08/30/24	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	0.885	1.05	Buy	DDM
09/11/24	Lim & Tan	Keppel Reit	0.925	1.02	Accumulate
10/02/24	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	0.96	1.05	Buy	DDM
10/22/24	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	0.94	1.15	Buy
10/22/24	Lim & Tan	Keppel Reit	0.94	1.02	Accumulate
10/23/24	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	0.925	1.25	Buy	DDM
10/23/24	Kim Eng	Keppel Reit	0.925	1.05	Buy
10/23/24	CIMB	Keppel Reit	0.925	1.15	Add
10/23/24	Citi Research	Keppel Reit	0.925	0.9	Hold
11/04/24	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	0.895	1.15	Buy
12/16/24	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	0.855	1.05	Buy	DDM
01/02/25	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	0.87	1.25	Buy	DDM
01/10/25	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	0.875	1.05	Buy	DDM
01/28/25	Lim & Tan	Keppel Reit	0.86	1.02	Accumulate
01/28/25	CIMB	Keppel Reit	0.86	1.09	Add
01/31/25	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	0.86	1.06	Buy	DDM
02/03/25	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	0.855	1.05	Buy	DDM
03/06/25	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	0.815	1.06	Buy	DDM
03/17/25	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	0.86	1.1	Buy
04/01/25	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	0.86	1.06	Buy	DDM
04/23/25	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	0.83	1.1	Buy
04/23/25	Lim & Tan	Keppel Reit	0.83	1	Accumulate
04/24/25	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	0.845	1.05	Buy
05/21/25	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	0.855	1.06	Buy	DDM
06/27/25	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	0.885	1.18	Buy	DDM
07/30/02	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	0.95	1.1	Buy	DCF
07/31/25	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	0.97	1.18	Buy	DDM
07/31/25	CIMB	Keppel Reit	0.97	1.08	Add	DDM
08/06/25	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	0.94	1.05	Buy	DDM
08/25/25	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	0.965	1.18	Buy	DDM