Why are we confident that we're facing an impending US recession?

The 2 most important precursory factors for indicating a recession are flashing a RED signal.

Before we embark on the interpretation, please read our previous post below on how an economy works.

CPI/PPI --->> M1-M2 spread/3m-10y yield spread --->> PMI --->> GDP

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-has-flipped-and-fissures.html

Let's focus on the 1st factor (3m-10y yield spread) first.

As shown on the yield spread chart, whenever there was a yield curve inversion (negative yield spread), a recession would follow thereafter.

The 2nd factor (PMI) had been contracting for the past 8 months.  This consecutive contractions in PMI will impact or show up on the GDP eventually because the GDP is a lagging indicator on economic growth.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2023/07/the-recent-us-ism-pmi-showed-that-us.html

Since both factors impact the GDP and are flashing RED signals, we don't see how the US can avert a recession.  This has become a WHEN question and not WHAT IF.