The boycott of US goods has started in China and is spreading to many provinces.
The US-China trade war has escalated. There are many analysts who think that Trump and Xi will meet in November G20 to de-escalate the trade war. However, we must also be prepared for the unexpected outcome that the 2 leaders won't meet at all because Trump wants to force Xi to submit to him and Xi doesn't want to lose face. China is preparing to fight this trade war because Xi has lost faith in Trump because Trump has portrayed himself as non-trustworthy.
This is really bad news for the world as the global economy will suffer.
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7 comments:
The US earnings will be impacted in the next quarterly report if this US boycott is successful in China.
Let's see how this will pan out.
Earnings unlikely to be impacted much as majority US revenue not from China 😉
Maybe you should ask Apple, Micron, Intel, Boeing, etc what will happen to their earnings if China doesn't buy from them.
There are so many US companies that I can name that will be badly affected when China doesn't buy from them.
Do you know who is US top trading partner?
China!
If China is not the US top revenue generator, it won't be the top trading partner.
Sigh .... US only gets 9.5% revenue from China.
If US bans all China imports, and China bans all US companies & goods & services .... yes, US products will become slightly more expensive & mainly Americans will need to pay more for basic stuff.
US may even experience a recession where the S&P500 falls by 30% to 40%.
But China's economy will be devastated ... I mean really really depression level collapse.
A lot of China's exports to Asia / Japan are intermediate products where the final assembled products are then re-shipped to US, Europe etc.
ZTE was banned from buying US chips & overnight all its factories close shop. This is how vulnerable China's economy actually is.
Currently most US businessmen, companies, elites & even ordinary citizens don't want trade war ... they still want the lower cost supply chain, factories, intermediate components manufacturing, and cheap basic products.
This is what is holding back Trump from going all in. If all Americans think like Trump, then by now there will be 100% ban & embargo, not just tariffs.
Let me set the record straight.
Many US companies make use of China as a conduit to export to the world because it is a manufacturing hub. When I say China is a manufacturing hub, I mean China has all the supply chains and production capacities that no other country can match at this moment.
Thus, China makes little money from the US and US makes more money from China. A good example will be Apple. Apple generates US$46B from China.
The problem with the chips industry in China is a shortage of local chip supply. This was the reason for ZTE to almost close down after the US chips ban. The issue is not that China cannot produce its own chips but China cannot produce enough for its own local consumption. A good example will be Huawei Kirin chips. Huawei has stopped using the Intel chips recently and will be ramping up its own Kirin chips for its own devices. However, it won't export its Kirin chips as it still cannot produce enough for its own uses.
Anyway, a US-China trade war will devastate the US more than China. This outcome has been predicted by the EU and IMF and we've posted this on our blog. This is the true reason that is holding back the US government because it will lose big time.
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