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Wednesday, May 20, 2020

China has not shown its hand yet in the fight against the US.

China can bludgeon the US so severely that the US cannot stand on its feet but China is not doing it now.

Why did I say that?

China can also do what the US did to Huawei but on a much larger scale.  China can announce that any foreign company, using China's rare earth materials, cannot export its rare earth materials and products to the USA.  This will cripple the US technology and military defence industries immediately since rare earth materials are used abundantly in batteries, missiles, etc.  Consequently, those foreign companies flouting China's announcement will risk losing access to China's market and get slapped with sanctions.  Thus, things can really get ugly if China is as belligerent and unreasonable as the US.

China can easily force the US to the negotiating table since the US cannot replace the rare earth materials from China immediately.  It will take a few years for the US to cut off from China and this can buy time for the US & China to decouple from each other.

Is this the new world that we're all looking forward to?

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