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Saturday, July 2, 2022

Financial risks are rising in the US!

The risk index (Move) for the US bond market is going to breach a 5-year record high.  This doesn't bode well for the bond market since a high move index denotes a bond bubble and high risk.

The high yield (Junk debt) spread is also rising which means investors are demanding higher risk premiums to buy debts.  This doesn't bode well for the corporate debt market because companies will face more difficulties raising funds.


The home price to median household income ratio is indicating the property market is in a BIG bubble already because the ratio is even higher than in the previous housing bubble.
All in all, the public debts (US treasuries), private debts (corporate debts), and property market are showing financial stresses of different magnitudes.  Therefore, the current rate hike trend might be the last straw that broke the camel's back.

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