Important economic statistics for 1st week of June.

The job gap has been relatively stable at around 4m which shows the huge mismatch in job demand and supply.

The US personal spending had picked up recently but it was unsustainable because the latest ISM PMI had declined due to weak local consumer demand.

Let's calculate 2 unknown sub-indices (Estimated new local orders & local raw materials).

* Estimated new local orders=New orders % change (-3.1) - New export order % change (+0.2) = -3.3%

* Estimated local raw materials=Inventories % change (-0.5) - Imports % change (-2.6) = +1.9%

As we can see from the decrease in the estimated new local orders (local consumer demand), we can deduce that the increase in the US personal spending is unsustainable.  The ISM PMI has been contracting (below 50) for 7 months already and a recession is bound to happen in the US.