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Wednesday, September 4, 2024

The latest ISM PMI underlined a bleak outlook. Why?

Although the PMI had a slight positive growth (47.2, +0.4), the subindices underlined a bleak outlook for the future.


The prices increased to 54 (+1.1) despite weakening consumption because of a decline in supplier’s deliveries and an increase in employment.  This showed that inflation was unlikely to decline any further.


The new order (44.6, -2.8), new export order (48.6, -0.4) and new local order (Est’d -2.4) denoted declining local and overseas consumptions that caused production (44.8, -1.1) to decline and resulted in customers’ inventories (48.4, +2.6), inventories (50.3, +5.8)  and backlog of order (43.6, +1.9) to increase.  Conversely, the employment increased to 46 (+2.6) because the producers misjudged on the consumption rebound that didn’t occur.  The overall PMI increased slightly because of stockpiling due to weakening consumption.

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