The US PMI had been in consecutive declines for the past few months!

Missing parameter:

Estimated Local New Orders: New orders - New Export Orders = +0.4 - (-3) = +3.4

Estimated Local Material: Inventories - Imports = -4.1 - (-7.2) = 3.1

This latest PMI report has partially reflected Trump's tariffs' impact.  Let's break it down for greater clarity.

The prices declined marginally (-0.4) because Trump had deferred the heavy tariffs while maintaining only the 10% standard tariffs.

The producers increased their production (+1.4) and employment (+0.3) just to fulfil the slight increase in new orders (+0.4) which were caused by an increase in local new orders (Est'd +3.4).  Thus, the customers' inventories were depleted further and the backlog of orders increased (+3.4).

In anticipation of the impending harsh tariffs, the producers used more local material (Est'd +3.1) and reduced the imported materials (-7.2).  Furthermore, the producers were not optimistic about the future outlook and reduced their inventories (-4.1).

All the above caused the PMI decline to 48.5 which put the US manufacturing in a contractionary zone.  Overall, this is a bad report because it is only supported by local new orders which is unsustainable.  Moreover, the table below showed that the US had been in consecutive declines for the past few months.