What will the US Fed do for its September FOMC meeting?

According to the fedwatch tool, the US Fed is likely to hike its rates in the September FOMC meeting.

We also think that the US Fed is likely to hike its rates in the upcoming FOMC meeting.  Why?

If the US Fed doesn't hike its rates in September, it is unlikely to hike its rates in October because of the November mid-term election.  Trump will have a total election loss in November if the Fed hikes its rates in October.

The dot plot chart in June 2026 also indicated that the US Fed would hike its rates in 2026.  If the US Fed doesn't hike its rates in September and October, it can only hike its rates in December and this may be too late and behind the inflation curve already.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2026/06/what-will-us-fed-do-for-its-june-fomc_0955449468.html

Therefore, the most appropriate time to take a pre-emptive move to contain inflation is to hike in September FOMC unless Trump pressures the US Fed not to hike in September and October.