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Tuesday, February 4, 2020

The coronavirus human-to-human transmission has started in Singapore.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/wuhan-virus-coronavirus-singapore-community-spread-tourists-12389314

The coronavirus human-to-human transmission has started in Singapore.

Singapore is a densely populated country and this poses a high risk for any virus transmission.

I hope that our medical practices and procedures can contain the virus transmission.

Golden Energy - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/13/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.245 0.36 Buy
03/07/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.235 0.3 Buy PER10x
04/26/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.215 0.3 Buy
05/24/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.198 0.24 Accumulate PER10x
06/03/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.198 0.24 Accumulate
07/04/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.225 0.24 Accumulate
08/23/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.188 0.19 Neutral PER10x

Golden Agri - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/03/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.245 0.2 Sell
01/28/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.27 0.23 Sell Sum of parts, PER10x, cut from $0.39
02/20/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.255 0.24 Hold
02/27/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.28 0.23 Sell Sum of parts
02/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.28 0.21 Sell
03/01/19 CIMB Golden Agri 0.275 0.23 Reduce Sum of parts (10% discount)
03/01/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.275 0.27 Hold
04/09/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.315 0.29 Hold PB0.65x
04/09/19 CIMB Golden Agri 0.315 0.23 Reduce
04/22/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.295 0.21 Sell
05/14/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.275 0.29 Hold
05/15/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.275 0.23 Sell Sum of parts
05/27/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.265 0.27 Hold
05/28/19 CIMB Golden Agri 0.26 0.23 Reduce Sum of parts (10% discount)
05/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.26 0.21 Sell
08/16/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.295 0.22 Sell Sum of parts
08/19/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.29 0.27 Sell
09/30/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.23 0.25 Neutral Sum of parts
10/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.21 0.16 Sell PER13x FY20
11/14/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.265 0.25 Neutral Sum of parts
11/15/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.245 0.26 Hold
11/22/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.235 0.27 Hold
11/22/19 CIMB Golden Agri 0.235 0.23 Reduce Sum of parts (10% discount)
01/20/20 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.235 0.27 Buy Sum of parts

GL Ltd - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/07/19 Lim & Tan GL Ltd 0.735 1.76 Buy Sum of parts

Stock calls for 4 February 2020

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/04/20 DBS Vickers A-Reit 3.13 3.45 Buy
02/04/20 DBS Vickers ART 1.26 1.5 Buy
02/04/20 DBS Vickers Ascendas India Trust 1.58 1.65 Buy
02/04/20 DBS Vickers CDL Hospitality 1.56 1.75 Buy
02/04/20 DMG & Partners Comfortdelgro 2.13 2.38 Neutral DCF
02/04/20 DBS Vickers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.84 2.95 Buy
02/04/20 DBS Vickers Keppel DC Reit 2.27 2.4 Buy
02/04/20 DBS Vickers Keppel Reit 1.21 1.45 Buy
02/04/20 DBS Vickers Mapletree Industrial 2.78 3 Buy
02/04/20 DBS Vickers Mapletree Logistics 1.85 1.9 Buy
02/04/20 UOB Kay Hian SATS 4.49 4.8 Hold
02/04/20 UOB Kay Hian SIA 8.49 9.1 Hold
02/04/20 UOB Kay Hian SIA Engineering 2.58 3.13 Buy
02/04/20 Amfrasers Soilbuild Reit 0.5 0.55 Neutral
02/04/20 DBS Vickers Starhill 0.715 0.8 Buy DCF
02/04/20 CIMB UMS 0.925 0.96 Hold BVPS
02/04/20 DMG & Partners UOB 25.3 25.8 Neutral GGM, PB1.11x FY20

Guangzhou has fallen!

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-02-03/Coronavirus-detected-on-doorknob-in-S-China-s-Guangzhou-NMua1LcOWY/index.html

The coronavirus has spread to Guangzhou.

It looks like community transmission has occurred in China.

China is trying very hard to keep Beijing safe now.  All hell will break loose if Beijing cannot be free from the virus outbreak.

China can stabilize its stock markets but not the real economy.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-market-regulator-guidance/china-regulator-urges-fund-managers-not-to-sell-shares-unless-they-face-redemptions-sources-idUSKBN1ZX0C4

China is trying to stabilize its financial sector by asking fund managers not to sell stocks and also pump monetary liquidity into its financial system.  Although China will be able to rein in the financial repercussions from the virus outbreak, the real economy will be badly affected because consumption will drop into the abyss.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-oil-demand-plunged-20-231351018.html

China's oil demand had plunged by 20% since the start of the outbreak.

The other sectors like retail, tourism, F&B, transportation, etc, are all badly affected because the Chinese are trying to cut down on human interactions.  When there is no human activity, there is no economic value.  Any monetary or fiscal policy will be useless in stimulating the economy unless the virus can be contained or eliminated.

The whole world will be severely affected when China starts to reduce its imports significantly due to the rapid deterioration in its local consumption.

Monday, February 3, 2020

Is the January 2020 PMI an aberration?


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The ISM PMI rose to 50.9 in Jan 2020 primarily due to a huge increase in the new order that also led to increases in customers’ inventories and production.

The prices rose to 53.3 due to an increase in imports and a reduction in the local raw material.  This PMI might be a precursor to an improvement in the next US GDP growth.  However, the coronavirus epidemic might also thwart this turnaround.  Therefore, we need to observe the epidemic situation closely to determine if this turnaround in US economic growth will materialize in the foreseeable future or not.


http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/01/the-us-ism-pmi-declined-again-in.html

Geo Energy - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.176 0.245 Buy
02/13/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.198 0.245 Buy
03/18/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.183 0.245 Buy
03/25/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.186 0.215 Accumulate PER10x
03/26/19 Amfrasers Geo Energy 0.182 0.19 Hold DCF
04/26/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.176 0.215 Accumulate
05/29/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.148 0.15 Neutral PER10x
06/03/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.149 0.15 Neutral
07/04/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.155 0.15 Neutral
08/29/19 Amfrasers Geo Energy 0.15 0.14 Neutral DCF
09/24/19 Amfrasers Geo Energy 0.148 0.14 Neutral DCF

Genting - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.975 1.23 Buy DCF
01/15/19 Kim Eng Genting 1.03 1.26 Buy EV/Ebitda9x FY19
01/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 1.06 1.38 Buy EV/Ebitda10x FY19
02/15/19 DMG & Partners Genting 1.1 1.23 Buy DCF
02/22/19 CIMB Genting 1.11 1.28 Add EV/Ebitda9x CY20
02/22/19 OCBC Genting 1.11 1.31 Buy FCFE
02/22/19 DMG & Partners Genting 1.11 1.22 Buy DCF
02/22/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 1.11 1.32 Buy
02/22/19 Kim Eng Genting 1.11 1.26 Buy EV/Ebitda9x FY19
02/25/19 DBS Vickers Genting 1.07 1.54 Buy EV/Ebitda12x
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Genting 1.02 1.22 Buy
03/26/19 CIMB Genting 1.03 1.28 Add
04/04/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 1.07 1.26 Buy EV/Ebitda 9x
04/04/19 DMG & Partners Genting 1.07 1.08 Neutral DCF
04/04/19 CIMB Genting 1.07 1.11 Add EV/Ebitda8x
04/04/19 OCBC Genting 1.07 1.31 Buy
04/04/19 DBS Vickers Genting 1.07 1.54 Buy EV/Ebitda 12x
04/04/19 Kim Eng Genting 1.07 1.12 Hold EV/Ebitda 8x FY19
04/04/19 Citibank Genting 1.07 1.28 Buy
05/10/19 Kim Eng Genting 0.95 1.04 Hold
05/10/19 OCBC Genting 0.95 1.23 Buy
05/10/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.95 1.02 Neutral DCF
05/10/19 CIMB Genting 0.95 1.06 Add EV/Ebitda8x CY20
05/10/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 0.95 1.26 Buy
05/10/19 DBS Vickers Genting 0.95 1.2 Buy DCF
05/10/19 Citibank Genting 0.95 1.16 Buy
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.86 1.02 Neutral
06/24/19 CIMB Genting 0.93 1.06 Add
08/05/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.9 0.97 Neutral EV/Ebitda7x FY19
08/05/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 0.9 1.11 Buy
08/06/19 Kim Eng Genting 0.885 0.99 Hold
08/06/19 Citibank Genting 0.885 1.07 Buy
08/06/19 CIMB Genting 0.885 1 Add EV/Ebitda8x CY20
08/06/19 DBS Vickers Genting 0.885 1.2 Buy
08/06/19 Lim & Tan Genting 0.885 0 Hold
10/01/19 DBS Vickers Genting 0.88 1.2 Buy
10/11/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.9 0.97 Neutral
10/25/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 0.925 1.11 Buy
11/08/19 Kim Eng Genting 0.96 0.99 Hold EV/Ebitda7x FY20
11/08/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.96 0.97 Neutral EV/Ebitda7x FY20
11/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 0.96 1.11 Buy
12/11/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.915 0.97 Neutral
01/14/20 DBS Vickers Genting 0.92 1.2 Buy

Fu Yu - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.19 0.23 Buy DCF
01/04/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.186 0.27 Buy EV/Ebitda 5.3x FY19
01/15/19 CIMB Fu Yu 0.2 0.2 Hold PB0.9x
02/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.205 0.27 Buy
02/27/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.21 0.285 Buy
02/27/19 Lim & Tan Fu Yu 0.21 0 Buy
02/28/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.215 0.24 Buy DCF
02/28/19 CIMB Fu Yu 0.215 0.2 Hold
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.205 0.24 Buy
03/26/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.2 0.285 Buy
04/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.205 0.285 Buy EV/Ebitda5.5x
05/07/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.21 0.24 Buy DCF
05/10/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.205 0.285 Buy
05/10/19 Lim & Tan Fu Yu 0.205 0 Buy
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.19 0.24 Buy
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.2 0.29 Buy
07/09/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.215 0.24 Buy DCF
07/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.215 0.29 Buy
08/14/19 Lim & Tan Fu Yu 0.215 0 Buy
08/14/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.215 0.24 Buy DCF
08/14/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.215 0.285 Buy
09/11/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.215 0.24 Buy
09/16/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.23 0.285 Buy EV/Ebitda5.7x FY19
10/02/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.22 0.24 Buy DCF
10/09/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.225 0.285 Buy
11/12/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.225 0.285 Buy
11/14/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.225 0.24 Buy DCF
11/14/19 Lim & Tan Fu Yu 0.225 0 Buy
11/29/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.235 0.295 Buy
12/10/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.25 0.27 Buy DCF
12/13/19 Lim & Tan Fu Yu 0.25 0 Buy
01/08/20 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.255 0.27 Buy
01/15/20 DBS Vickers Fu Yu 0.25 0.35 Buy PER16x FY20
01/15/20 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.25 0.29 Buy DCF

Stock calls for 3 February 2020

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/03/20 UOB Kay Hian A-Reit 3.15 3.35 Buy DDM
02/03/20 DMG & Partners A-Reit 3.15 3.1 Neutral DDM
02/03/20 CIMB A-Reit 3.15 3.14 Hold
02/03/20 Kim Eng AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit 1.46 1.6 Buy DDM
02/03/20 UOB Kay Hian ART 1.26 1.57 Buy
02/03/20 OCBC CDL Hospitality 1.56 1.62 Hold
02/03/20 Kim Eng CDL Hospitality 1.56 1.75 Buy
02/03/20 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.56 1.89 Buy
02/03/20 DBS Vickers Far East Hospitality 0.68 0.69 Hold PB0.85x
02/03/20 OCBC Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.88 2.93 Hold
02/03/20 OCBC Mapletree Commercial 2.35 2.44 Hold
02/03/20 DBS Vickers OCBC 10.83 11.5 Hold
02/03/20 OCBC OUE Commercial 0.545 0.55 Hold
02/03/20 DBS Vickers OUE Commercial 0.545 0.6 Buy DCF
02/03/20 DBS Vickers UOB 25.66 29.2 Buy

Sunday, February 2, 2020

Red alert - H5N1 bird flu outbreak in Hunan.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/china-reports-h5n1-bird-flu-outbreak-hunan-wuhan-coronavirus-12381796

China has not managed to contain the coronavirus yet and H5N1 outbreak has started in Hunan.  It is estimated that the coronavirus will reach its peak in April 2020 before it subsides.

With these 2 viruses circulating in China, there is a high possibility that 1 quarter GDP growth will be wiped out in China.  It will be impossible for China to maintain a 6% GDP growth in 2020.

What happened to those cities under lockdown in China?

The markets, streets and malls are all empty and look like a ghost city.

When there is no human activity, there is no economic value.  Therefore, the 16 cities under lockdown with an estimated 60m people will be greatly impacted economically because China is a consumption-led economy now.  Furthermore, China is being increasingly ostracized by many countries as the Chinese are being denied entries.  The world is looking at China Chinese as locusts now.

There is also some speculation that the fatality rate of the coronavirus is much higher than stated because China is labelling the cause of death as visceral organ failure for those who die due to the virus.  The economic consequence will be much greater in 2020 than the SARS in 2003 because China's GDP in 2003 was only US$1.66T.  Moreover, China's economic contribution to the world is now at 39%.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/10/china-gdp-was-growing-at-65-in-q3-2018.html

Saturday, February 1, 2020

Baltic dry index - 487

Today, Friday, January 31 2020, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 11 points, reaching 487 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 790


Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

The US yield curve inversion has happened again in 2020!

The 10-year yield is 1.51% which is lower than 1-m, 2-m, 3-m and 4-m.

We hit the nail on Luckin Coffee.

https://www.investors.com/news/luckin-coffee-stock-falls-muddy-waters-report-fraud/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo

Muddy Waters has targeted Luckin Coffee.

We had warned about Luckin Coffee in May 2019.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/do-not-subscribe-to-luckin-coffee-ipo.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/luckin-has-fallen-below-its-ipo-price.html


The difference between a normal chest x-ray vs coronavirus chest x-ray.

Normal chest x-ray with clear visibility of ribs.

Coronavirus chest x-ray with foggy visibility.
The coronavirus has destroyed the lung's capability to breathe.

Human to human transmission has started for coronavirus.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/wuhan-virus-thailand-first-human-coronavirus-transmission-12374356

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/30/cdc-confirms-first-human-to-human-transmission-of-coronavirus-in-us.html

The US and Thailand have reported human to human transmission cases.  Although the fatality rate is much lower than SARS, the economic impacts will be much greater than SARS since there are more people getting infected by this new virus.