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Friday, May 17, 2019

Huawei will replace the US$21b chip orders with its own chips eventually.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/huaweis-hisilicon-says-long-preparing-u-ban-scenario-053715518--finance.html

The US chip makers will lose US$21b orders from Huawei eventually because of the US sanctions.  The other Chinese telecom and mobile phone makers will also replace foreign chips with China made chips and the US will lose the entire China market eventually.

We've stated before that the global semiconductor slowdown was permanent in 2018.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-global-semiconductor-slowdown-is.html

Singapore Nodx fell at a double digit pace again in April 2019.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/05/17/singapore-april-exports-slump-10-year-on-year/

Year on year changes (YOY):

April 2019: -10%
March 2019: -11.7%
February 2019: 4.9%
January 2019: -10.1%
December 2018: -8.5%
November 2018: -2.6%
October 2018: 8.3%
September 2018: 8.3%
August 2018: 5%
July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)
June 2018: 1.1%
May 2018: 15.5%
April 2018: 11.8%
March 2018: -2.7%
February 2018: -5.9%
January 2018: 13%
December 2017: 3.1%
November 2017: 9.1%
October 2017: 20.9%
September 2017: -1.1%
August 2017: 16.7%
July 2017: 8.5%
June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%


No wonder SG is trying to get cozy with China now because the bad number will be reflected in the GDP data soon.

China is stirring up anti-US sentiment in its citizens.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-trade-war-only-us-022837025.html

China is prepping its citizens for a long economic war with the US by stirring up anti-US sentiment so that its citizens will reduce or stop buying and using US products and services.

This is definitely not a piece of good news because the Chinese are a bunch of nationalistic people.

Once the US firms lose China market share, it will be very difficult to gain back.

China has started to sell US treasuries. - Part 2

Let me accentuate this again.  The selloff of the US treasuries by China is not a retaliatory move!

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries.html

Coincidentally, we had already provided the explanation in 2018.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-more-us-tries-to-hurt-china-more-it.html

US economic update!

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/15/atlanta-fed-forecast-for-gdp-growth-sliding-rate-cut-chances-surging.html

Atlanta Fed is one of the Fed banks which is tasked to provide the US GDP analysis and forecast.  For your information, every Fed bank is tasked to do something for the government.

Atlanta Fed is forecasting a weak economic growth and has cut the GDP growth from 3.2% to 1.1%.  This 2/3 cut has vindicated our previous analysis about the 1st QTR GDP below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-is-going-downhill.html

We had already predicted weak GDP growth in the 2nd QTR in our PMI post on 2 May 2019 because we were skeptical about the putative 1st QTR GDP number.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/us-ism-manufacturing-pmi-fell-in-april.html

The 1st QTR GDP growth of 3.2% was propped up by a sharp decline in imports and an increase in inventory buildup which was caused by weak retail sales and weak durable goods orders.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-has-flipped-and-fissures.html

Thursday, May 16, 2019

Why did SG have a change of heart? A real change or a deception?

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/wow-singapore-is-trying-to-get-into.html

Will the Chinese believe in SG?

This change of heart comes too late.

SG government knows that our future is bleak because of the US-China trade war which won't be a short one.  Furthermore, we have an anti-SG neighbour (Malaysia) and it is always creating troubles for SG.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/singapore-is-heading-towards-political.html

Therefore, circumstances force our government to have a change of heart but the Chinese won't believe SG.  Why not?

As long as our military defence is dependent on US-based systems, we will always stand together with the US in times of crises.  The Chinese have seen through SG many times before unless we diversify our military defence.

SG knows that it has to rely on China now.  Hopefully, the Chinese will give SG another chance because being late is better than never.  Singapore also has to prove to the Chinese that we mean what we've said by diversifying our defence to gain China's trust.  If not, the Chinese won't trust SG at all.

Let's work together for a brighter future and world peace!

GSS Energy - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/07/19 DMG & Partners GSS Energy 0.097 0.19 Buy
03/04/19 DMG & Partners GSS Energy 0.112 0.17 Buy DCF
05/14/19 DMG & Partners GSS Energy 0.081 0.08 Neutral DCF

Grand Venture - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/04/19 CIMB Grand Venture 0.25 0.34 Add PER10x FY20

Golden Energy - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/13/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.245 0.36 Buy
03/07/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.235 0.3 Buy PER10x
04/26/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.215 0.3 Buy

Stock calls for 16 May 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/16/19 DBS Vickers AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit 1.4 1.5 Buy DCF
05/16/19 DBS Vickers APAC Realty 0.525 0.58 Hold PER10x
05/16/19 Phillip APTV 0.178 0.16 Reduce EV/Ebitda11x
05/16/19 DMG & Partners City Developments 8.54 9.2 Neutral RNAV (40% discount)
05/16/19 OCBC City Developments 8.54 10.68 Buy
05/16/19 CIMB City Developments 8.54 10.66 Add
05/16/19 DBS Vickers Comfortdelgro 2.52 2.59 Hold DCF, PER17.7x, Buy @ $2.40
05/16/19 Kim Eng Comfortdelgro 2.52 2.4 Hold
05/16/19 Amfrasers Comfortdelgro 2.52 2.77 Buy
05/16/19 DMG & Partners First Resources 1.7 1.53 Neutral PER13x FY20
05/16/19 Kim Eng First Resources 1.7 1.93 Buy PER17x
05/16/19 DBS Vickers First Resources 1.7 1.95 Buy DCF, PER16.5x FY19
05/16/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.7 1.7 Hold Buy @ $1.50
05/16/19 Kim Eng HMI 0.545 0.66 Buy DCF
05/16/19 DBS Vickers Jumbo 0.405 0.51 Buy PER23x FY19
05/16/19 UOB Kay Hian Jumbo 0.405 0.41 Hold Buy @ $0.37
05/16/19 CIMB Jumbo 0.405 0.52 Add
05/16/19 UOB Kay Hian Propnex 0.505 0.6 Buy
05/16/19 DBS Vickers Riverstone 0.975 1.03 Hold PER16.8x FY19/20
05/16/19 OCBC Sembcorp Industries 2.54 3.13 Buy Sum of parts
05/16/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Industries 2.54 3.9 Buy
05/16/19 CIMB Sembcorp Industries 2.54 3.41 Add
05/16/19 DBS Vickers Silverlake 0.52 0.63 Buy PER21x FY19
05/16/19 CIMB Silverlake 0.52 0.58 Add
05/16/19 DMG & Partners Singtel 3.13 3.35 Neutral Sum of parts
05/16/19 OCBC Singtel 3.13 3.59 Buy
05/16/19 CIMB Singtel 3.13 3.4 Add Sum of parts
05/16/19 UOB Kay Hian Singtel 3.13 3.58 Buy
05/16/19 Kim Eng Singtel 3.13 3.37 Hold Sum of parts
05/16/19 OCBC ST Engineering 3.9 4.22 Buy
05/16/19 DBS Vickers ST Engineering 3.9 4.5 Buy
05/16/19 CIMB ST Engineering 3.9 4.43 Add PER22x FY20
05/16/19 DBS Vickers UMS 0.64 0.45 Fully Valued PER8x FY19/20
05/16/19 CIMB UOB 25.1 29.58 Add GGM
05/16/19 DMG & Partners Wilmar 3.5 3.94 Buy Sum of parts
05/16/19 OCBC Wilmar 3.5 3.66 Hold PB0.95x
05/16/19 CIMB Wilmar 3.5 3.96 Add Sum of parts
05/16/19 OCBC Yanlord 1.44 1.68 Buy PER5x

China has started to sell US treasuries.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-treasury-securities/china-sells-most-us-treasuries-in-nearly-two-and-a-half-years-idUSKCN1SL2U4

This is indeed an unusual move as it is the biggest selloff in nearly 2 and a half years.

However, this move might be misinterpreted by many because it could be that China was trying to stop its RMB from sliding further.

Like I said before, China is a consuming nation now and further slides in RMB will cause inflation in China to spike and slow down local consumption.  A rapid deterioration in RMB will impact imports and this will be bad for other export-oriented countries.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/china-is-consuming-economy-not.html

Wow! Singapore is trying to get into China's good books.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-urges-us-to-accept-chinas-rise-spare-other-nations-035332068.html

Wow! I can't believe this is coming from Singapore.  Singapore has spoken in favour of China for the first time.

Look like SG has woken up because it knows its economic growth will be badly affected soon in the US-China trade war as China's imports are dwindling.  The ugly figures will show up in SG economic data soon if the US-China trade war is prolonged.


Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Golden Agri - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/03/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.245 0.2 Sell
01/28/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.27 0.23 Sell Sum of parts, PER10x, cut from $0.39
02/20/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.255 0.24 Hold
02/27/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.28 0.23 Sell Sum of parts
02/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.28 0.21 Sell
03/01/19 CIMB Golden Agri 0.275 0.23 Reduce Sum of parts (10% discount)
03/01/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.275 0.27 Hold
04/09/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.315 0.29 Hold PB0.65x
04/09/19 CIMB Golden Agri 0.315 0.23 Reduce
04/22/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.295 0.21 Sell
05/14/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.275 0.29 Hold
05/15/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.275 0.23 Sell Sum of parts

GL Ltd - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/07/19 Lim & Tan GL Ltd 0.735 1.76 Buy Sum of parts

Geo Energy - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.176 0.245 Buy
02/13/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.198 0.245 Buy
03/18/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.183 0.245 Buy
03/25/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.186 0.215 Accumulate PER10x
03/26/19 Amfrasers Geo Energy 0.182 0.19 Hold DCF
04/26/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.176 0.215 Accumulate

Stock calls for 15 May 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Bumitama 0.69 0.81 Buy
05/15/19 DBS Vickers Bumitama 0.69 0.8 Buy DCF
05/15/19 DMG & Partners Centurion 0.405 0.41 Neutral DCF
05/15/19 DMG & Partners Comfortdelgro 2.57 2.65 Take Profit
05/15/19 OCBC Comfortdelgro 2.57 2.69 Hold
05/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Comfortdelgro 2.57 2.77 Buy
05/15/19 phillip Dasin Retail 0.87 0.94 Accumulate DDM, PB0.6x
05/15/19 phillip EC World Reit 0.785 0.87 Buy DDM, PB0.93x
05/15/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.275 0.23 Sell Sum of parts
05/15/19 phillip HMI 0.530 0.73 Buy DCF
05/15/19 CIMB HMI 0.530 0.68 Add DCF
05/15/19 UOB Kay Hian HMI 0.530 0.73 Buy
05/15/19 DMG & Partners ISOTeam 0.22 0.29 Buy DCF
05/15/19 CIMB Memtech 1.09 1.35 Accept offer offer $1.35
05/15/19 Lim & Tan Memtech 1.09 1.35 Accept offer offer $1.35
05/15/19 OCBC Netlink 0.835 0.95 Buy
05/15/19 DBS Vickers Netlink 0.835 0.9 Buy
05/15/19 Phillip Netlink 0.835 0.93 Accumulate DCF
05/15/19 Kim Eng Netlink 0.835 0.94 Buy DDM

The US is going to impose a blanket ban on Huawei.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-trump-expected-sign-order-paving-way-u-045236197--finance.html

It is time for China to impose a ban on US IT firm too.  Many US IT firms have backdoors for NSA and FBI to snoop around to gather intelligence of any kind, be it for terrorism or commercial purposes.

https://www.theverge.com/2013/6/6/4403868/nsa-fbi-mine-data-apple-google-facebook-microsoft-others-prism

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NSAKEY

China should ban Microsoft as it poses a high security risk.

I've stopped using Microsoft a long time ago and switched to Linux (ubuntu).

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Genting - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.975 1.23 Buy DCF
01/15/19 Kim Eng Genting 1.03 1.26 Buy EV/Ebitda9x FY19
01/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 1.06 1.38 Buy EV/Ebitda10x FY19
02/15/19 DMG & Partners Genting 1.1 1.23 Buy DCF
02/22/19 CIMB Genting 1.11 1.28 Add EV/Ebitda9x CY20
02/22/19 OCBC Genting 1.11 1.31 Buy FCFE
02/22/19 DMG & Partners Genting 1.11 1.22 Buy DCF
02/22/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 1.11 1.32 Buy
02/22/19 Kim Eng Genting 1.11 1.26 Buy EV/Ebitda9x FY19
02/25/19 DBS Vickers Genting 1.07 1.54 Buy EV/Ebitda12x
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Genting 1.02 1.22 Buy
03/26/19 CIMB Genting 1.03 1.28 Add
04/04/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 1.07 1.26 Buy EV/Ebitda 9x
04/04/19 DMG & Partners Genting 1.07 1.08 Neutral DCF
04/04/19 CIMB Genting 1.07 1.11 Add EV/Ebitda8x
04/04/19 OCBC Genting 1.07 1.31 Buy
04/04/19 DBS Vickers Genting 1.07 1.54 Buy EV/Ebitda 12x
04/04/19 Kim Eng Genting 1.07 1.12 Hold EV/Ebitda 8x FY19
05/10/19 Kim Eng Genting 0.95 1.04 Hold
05/10/19 OCBC Genting 0.95 1.23 Buy
05/10/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.95 1.02 Neutral DCF
05/10/19 CIMB Genting 0.95 1.06 Add EV/Ebitda8x CY20
05/10/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 0.95 1.26 Buy
05/10/19 DBS Vickers Genting 0.95 1.2 Buy DCF

Fu Yu - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.19 0.23 Buy DCF
01/04/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.186 0.27 Buy EV/Ebitda 5.3x FY19
01/15/19 CIMB Fu Yu 0.2 0.2 Hold PB0.9x
02/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.205 0.27 Buy
02/27/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.21 0.285 Buy
02/27/19 Lim & Tan Fu Yu 0.21 0 Buy
02/28/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.215 0.24 Buy DCF
02/28/19 CIMB Fu Yu 0.215 0.2 Hold
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.205 0.24 Buy
03/26/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.2 0.285 Buy
04/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.205 0.285 Buy EV/Ebitda5.5x
05/07/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.21 0.24 Buy DCF
05/10/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.205 0.285 Buy
05/10/19 Lim & Tan Fu Yu 0.205 0 Buy

Frencken - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/12/19 Amfrasers Frencken 0.51 0.67 Buy PER10x FY19
04/15/19 DBS Vickers Frencken 0.6 0.75 Buy PER8.5x FY19/20
04/17/19 CIMB Frencken 0.635 0.9 Add PER10x FY20
05/09/19 DMG & Partners Frencken 0.615 0.82 Buy DCF
05/10/19 DBS Vickers Frencken 0.615 0.75 Buy PER8.5x FY19/20
05/10/19 Lim & Tan Frencken 0.615 0 Buy
05/10/19 CIMB Frencken 0.615 0.9 Add
05/14/19 Amfrasers Frencken 0.595 0.67 Buy PER10x FY19