https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/huaweis-hisilicon-says-long-preparing-u-ban-scenario-053715518--finance.html
The US chip makers will lose US$21b orders from Huawei eventually because of the US sanctions. The other Chinese telecom and mobile phone makers will also replace foreign chips with China made chips and the US will lose the entire China market eventually.
We've stated before that the global semiconductor slowdown was permanent in 2018.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-global-semiconductor-slowdown-is.html
Friday, May 17, 2019
Singapore Nodx fell at a double digit pace again in April 2019.
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/05/17/singapore-april-exports-slump-10-year-on-year/
Year on year changes (YOY):
April 2019: -10%
March 2019: -11.7%
February 2019: 4.9%
January 2019: -10.1%
December 2018: -8.5%
November 2018: -2.6%
October 2018: 8.3%
September 2018: 8.3%
August 2018: 5%
July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)
June 2018: 1.1%
May 2018: 15.5%
April 2018: 11.8%
March 2018: -2.7%
February 2018: -5.9%
January 2018: 13%
December 2017: 3.1%
November 2017: 9.1%
October 2017: 20.9%
September 2017: -1.1%
August 2017: 16.7%
July 2017: 8.5%
June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%
No wonder SG is trying to get cozy with China now because the bad number will be reflected in the GDP data soon.
China is stirring up anti-US sentiment in its citizens.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-trade-war-only-us-022837025.html
China is prepping its citizens for a long economic war with the US by stirring up anti-US sentiment so that its citizens will reduce or stop buying and using US products and services.
This is definitely not a piece of good news because the Chinese are a bunch of nationalistic people.
Once the US firms lose China market share, it will be very difficult to gain back.
China is prepping its citizens for a long economic war with the US by stirring up anti-US sentiment so that its citizens will reduce or stop buying and using US products and services.
This is definitely not a piece of good news because the Chinese are a bunch of nationalistic people.
Once the US firms lose China market share, it will be very difficult to gain back.
China has started to sell US treasuries. - Part 2
Let me accentuate this again. The selloff of the US treasuries by China is not a retaliatory move!
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries.html
Coincidentally, we had already provided the explanation in 2018.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-more-us-tries-to-hurt-china-more-it.html
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries.html
Coincidentally, we had already provided the explanation in 2018.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-more-us-tries-to-hurt-china-more-it.html
US economic update!
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/15/atlanta-fed-forecast-for-gdp-growth-sliding-rate-cut-chances-surging.html
Atlanta Fed is one of the Fed banks which is tasked to provide the US GDP analysis and forecast. For your information, every Fed bank is tasked to do something for the government.
Atlanta Fed is forecasting a weak economic growth and has cut the GDP growth from 3.2% to 1.1%. This 2/3 cut has vindicated our previous analysis about the 1st QTR GDP below.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-is-going-downhill.html
We had already predicted weak GDP growth in the 2nd QTR in our PMI post on 2 May 2019 because we were skeptical about the putative 1st QTR GDP number.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/us-ism-manufacturing-pmi-fell-in-april.html
The 1st QTR GDP growth of 3.2% was propped up by a sharp decline in imports and an increase in inventory buildup which was caused by weak retail sales and weak durable goods orders.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-has-flipped-and-fissures.html
Atlanta Fed is one of the Fed banks which is tasked to provide the US GDP analysis and forecast. For your information, every Fed bank is tasked to do something for the government.
Atlanta Fed is forecasting a weak economic growth and has cut the GDP growth from 3.2% to 1.1%. This 2/3 cut has vindicated our previous analysis about the 1st QTR GDP below.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-is-going-downhill.html
We had already predicted weak GDP growth in the 2nd QTR in our PMI post on 2 May 2019 because we were skeptical about the putative 1st QTR GDP number.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/us-ism-manufacturing-pmi-fell-in-april.html
The 1st QTR GDP growth of 3.2% was propped up by a sharp decline in imports and an increase in inventory buildup which was caused by weak retail sales and weak durable goods orders.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-has-flipped-and-fissures.html
Thursday, May 16, 2019
Why did SG have a change of heart? A real change or a deception?
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/wow-singapore-is-trying-to-get-into.html
Will the Chinese believe in SG?
This change of heart comes too late.
SG government knows that our future is bleak because of the US-China trade war which won't be a short one. Furthermore, we have an anti-SG neighbour (Malaysia) and it is always creating troubles for SG.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/singapore-is-heading-towards-political.html
Therefore, circumstances force our government to have a change of heart but the Chinese won't believe SG. Why not?
As long as our military defence is dependent on US-based systems, we will always stand together with the US in times of crises. The Chinese have seen through SG many times before unless we diversify our military defence.
SG knows that it has to rely on China now. Hopefully, the Chinese will give SG another chance because being late is better than never. Singapore also has to prove to the Chinese that we mean what we've said by diversifying our defence to gain China's trust. If not, the Chinese won't trust SG at all.
Let's work together for a brighter future and world peace!
Will the Chinese believe in SG?
This change of heart comes too late.
SG government knows that our future is bleak because of the US-China trade war which won't be a short one. Furthermore, we have an anti-SG neighbour (Malaysia) and it is always creating troubles for SG.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/singapore-is-heading-towards-political.html
Therefore, circumstances force our government to have a change of heart but the Chinese won't believe SG. Why not?
As long as our military defence is dependent on US-based systems, we will always stand together with the US in times of crises. The Chinese have seen through SG many times before unless we diversify our military defence.
SG knows that it has to rely on China now. Hopefully, the Chinese will give SG another chance because being late is better than never. Singapore also has to prove to the Chinese that we mean what we've said by diversifying our defence to gain China's trust. If not, the Chinese won't trust SG at all.
Let's work together for a brighter future and world peace!
GSS Energy - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/07/19 | DMG & Partners | GSS Energy | 0.097 | 0.19 | Buy | |
03/04/19 | DMG & Partners | GSS Energy | 0.112 | 0.17 | Buy | DCF |
05/14/19 | DMG & Partners | GSS Energy | 0.081 | 0.08 | Neutral | DCF |
Grand Venture - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
04/04/19 | CIMB | Grand Venture | 0.25 | 0.34 | Add | PER10x FY20 |
Golden Energy - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
02/13/19 | phillip | Golden Energy | 0.245 | 0.36 | Buy | |
03/07/19 | phillip | Golden Energy | 0.235 | 0.3 | Buy | PER10x |
04/26/19 | phillip | Golden Energy | 0.215 | 0.3 | Buy |
Stock calls for 16 May 2019
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
05/16/19 | DBS Vickers | AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit | 1.4 | 1.5 | Buy | DCF |
05/16/19 | DBS Vickers | APAC Realty | 0.525 | 0.58 | Hold | PER10x |
05/16/19 | Phillip | APTV | 0.178 | 0.16 | Reduce | EV/Ebitda11x |
05/16/19 | DMG & Partners | City Developments | 8.54 | 9.2 | Neutral | RNAV (40% discount) |
05/16/19 | OCBC | City Developments | 8.54 | 10.68 | Buy | |
05/16/19 | CIMB | City Developments | 8.54 | 10.66 | Add | |
05/16/19 | DBS Vickers | Comfortdelgro | 2.52 | 2.59 | Hold | DCF, PER17.7x, Buy @ $2.40 |
05/16/19 | Kim Eng | Comfortdelgro | 2.52 | 2.4 | Hold | |
05/16/19 | Amfrasers | Comfortdelgro | 2.52 | 2.77 | Buy | |
05/16/19 | DMG & Partners | First Resources | 1.7 | 1.53 | Neutral | PER13x FY20 |
05/16/19 | Kim Eng | First Resources | 1.7 | 1.93 | Buy | PER17x |
05/16/19 | DBS Vickers | First Resources | 1.7 | 1.95 | Buy | DCF, PER16.5x FY19 |
05/16/19 | UOB Kay Hian | First Resources | 1.7 | 1.7 | Hold | Buy @ $1.50 |
05/16/19 | Kim Eng | HMI | 0.545 | 0.66 | Buy | DCF |
05/16/19 | DBS Vickers | Jumbo | 0.405 | 0.51 | Buy | PER23x FY19 |
05/16/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Jumbo | 0.405 | 0.41 | Hold | Buy @ $0.37 |
05/16/19 | CIMB | Jumbo | 0.405 | 0.52 | Add | |
05/16/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Propnex | 0.505 | 0.6 | Buy | |
05/16/19 | DBS Vickers | Riverstone | 0.975 | 1.03 | Hold | PER16.8x FY19/20 |
05/16/19 | OCBC | Sembcorp Industries | 2.54 | 3.13 | Buy | Sum of parts |
05/16/19 | DBS Vickers | Sembcorp Industries | 2.54 | 3.9 | Buy | |
05/16/19 | CIMB | Sembcorp Industries | 2.54 | 3.41 | Add | |
05/16/19 | DBS Vickers | Silverlake | 0.52 | 0.63 | Buy | PER21x FY19 |
05/16/19 | CIMB | Silverlake | 0.52 | 0.58 | Add | |
05/16/19 | DMG & Partners | Singtel | 3.13 | 3.35 | Neutral | Sum of parts |
05/16/19 | OCBC | Singtel | 3.13 | 3.59 | Buy | |
05/16/19 | CIMB | Singtel | 3.13 | 3.4 | Add | Sum of parts |
05/16/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Singtel | 3.13 | 3.58 | Buy | |
05/16/19 | Kim Eng | Singtel | 3.13 | 3.37 | Hold | Sum of parts |
05/16/19 | OCBC | ST Engineering | 3.9 | 4.22 | Buy | |
05/16/19 | DBS Vickers | ST Engineering | 3.9 | 4.5 | Buy | |
05/16/19 | CIMB | ST Engineering | 3.9 | 4.43 | Add | PER22x FY20 |
05/16/19 | DBS Vickers | UMS | 0.64 | 0.45 | Fully Valued | PER8x FY19/20 |
05/16/19 | CIMB | UOB | 25.1 | 29.58 | Add | GGM |
05/16/19 | DMG & Partners | Wilmar | 3.5 | 3.94 | Buy | Sum of parts |
05/16/19 | OCBC | Wilmar | 3.5 | 3.66 | Hold | PB0.95x |
05/16/19 | CIMB | Wilmar | 3.5 | 3.96 | Add | Sum of parts |
05/16/19 | OCBC | Yanlord | 1.44 | 1.68 | Buy | PER5x |
China has started to sell US treasuries.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-treasury-securities/china-sells-most-us-treasuries-in-nearly-two-and-a-half-years-idUSKCN1SL2U4
This is indeed an unusual move as it is the biggest selloff in nearly 2 and a half years.
However, this move might be misinterpreted by many because it could be that China was trying to stop its RMB from sliding further.
Like I said before, China is a consuming nation now and further slides in RMB will cause inflation in China to spike and slow down local consumption. A rapid deterioration in RMB will impact imports and this will be bad for other export-oriented countries.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/china-is-consuming-economy-not.html
This is indeed an unusual move as it is the biggest selloff in nearly 2 and a half years.
However, this move might be misinterpreted by many because it could be that China was trying to stop its RMB from sliding further.
Like I said before, China is a consuming nation now and further slides in RMB will cause inflation in China to spike and slow down local consumption. A rapid deterioration in RMB will impact imports and this will be bad for other export-oriented countries.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/china-is-consuming-economy-not.html
Wow! Singapore is trying to get into China's good books.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-urges-us-to-accept-chinas-rise-spare-other-nations-035332068.html
Wow! I can't believe this is coming from Singapore. Singapore has spoken in favour of China for the first time.
Look like SG has woken up because it knows its economic growth will be badly affected soon in the US-China trade war as China's imports are dwindling. The ugly figures will show up in SG economic data soon if the US-China trade war is prolonged.
Wow! I can't believe this is coming from Singapore. Singapore has spoken in favour of China for the first time.
Look like SG has woken up because it knows its economic growth will be badly affected soon in the US-China trade war as China's imports are dwindling. The ugly figures will show up in SG economic data soon if the US-China trade war is prolonged.
Wednesday, May 15, 2019
Golden Agri - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/03/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Golden Agri | 0.245 | 0.2 | Sell | |
01/28/19 | DMG & Partners | Golden Agri | 0.27 | 0.23 | Sell | Sum of parts, PER10x, cut from $0.39 |
02/20/19 | OCBC | Golden Agri | 0.255 | 0.24 | Hold | |
02/27/19 | DMG & Partners | Golden Agri | 0.28 | 0.23 | Sell | Sum of parts |
02/28/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Golden Agri | 0.28 | 0.21 | Sell | |
03/01/19 | CIMB | Golden Agri | 0.275 | 0.23 | Reduce | Sum of parts (10% discount) |
03/01/19 | OCBC | Golden Agri | 0.275 | 0.27 | Hold | |
04/09/19 | OCBC | Golden Agri | 0.315 | 0.29 | Hold | PB0.65x |
04/09/19 | CIMB | Golden Agri | 0.315 | 0.23 | Reduce | |
04/22/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Golden Agri | 0.295 | 0.21 | Sell | |
05/14/19 | OCBC | Golden Agri | 0.275 | 0.29 | Hold | |
05/15/19 | DMG & Partners | Golden Agri | 0.275 | 0.23 | Sell | Sum of parts |
GL Ltd - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
02/07/19 | Lim & Tan | GL Ltd | 0.735 | 1.76 | Buy | Sum of parts |
Geo Energy - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/04/19 | phillip | Geo Energy | 0.176 | 0.245 | Buy | |
02/13/19 | phillip | Geo Energy | 0.198 | 0.245 | Buy | |
03/18/19 | phillip | Geo Energy | 0.183 | 0.245 | Buy | |
03/25/19 | phillip | Geo Energy | 0.186 | 0.215 | Accumulate | PER10x |
03/26/19 | Amfrasers | Geo Energy | 0.182 | 0.19 | Hold | DCF |
04/26/19 | phillip | Geo Energy | 0.176 | 0.215 | Accumulate |
Stock calls for 15 May 2019
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
05/15/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Bumitama | 0.69 | 0.81 | Buy | |
05/15/19 | DBS Vickers | Bumitama | 0.69 | 0.8 | Buy | DCF |
05/15/19 | DMG & Partners | Centurion | 0.405 | 0.41 | Neutral | DCF |
05/15/19 | DMG & Partners | Comfortdelgro | 2.57 | 2.65 | Take Profit | |
05/15/19 | OCBC | Comfortdelgro | 2.57 | 2.69 | Hold | |
05/15/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Comfortdelgro | 2.57 | 2.77 | Buy | |
05/15/19 | phillip | Dasin Retail | 0.87 | 0.94 | Accumulate | DDM, PB0.6x |
05/15/19 | phillip | EC World Reit | 0.785 | 0.87 | Buy | DDM, PB0.93x |
05/15/19 | DMG & Partners | Golden Agri | 0.275 | 0.23 | Sell | Sum of parts |
05/15/19 | phillip | HMI | 0.530 | 0.73 | Buy | DCF |
05/15/19 | CIMB | HMI | 0.530 | 0.68 | Add | DCF |
05/15/19 | UOB Kay Hian | HMI | 0.530 | 0.73 | Buy | |
05/15/19 | DMG & Partners | ISOTeam | 0.22 | 0.29 | Buy | DCF |
05/15/19 | CIMB | Memtech | 1.09 | 1.35 | Accept offer | offer $1.35 |
05/15/19 | Lim & Tan | Memtech | 1.09 | 1.35 | Accept offer | offer $1.35 |
05/15/19 | OCBC | Netlink | 0.835 | 0.95 | Buy | |
05/15/19 | DBS Vickers | Netlink | 0.835 | 0.9 | Buy | |
05/15/19 | Phillip | Netlink | 0.835 | 0.93 | Accumulate | DCF |
05/15/19 | Kim Eng | Netlink | 0.835 | 0.94 | Buy | DDM |
The US is going to impose a blanket ban on Huawei.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-trump-expected-sign-order-paving-way-u-045236197--finance.html
It is time for China to impose a ban on US IT firm too. Many US IT firms have backdoors for NSA and FBI to snoop around to gather intelligence of any kind, be it for terrorism or commercial purposes.
https://www.theverge.com/2013/6/6/4403868/nsa-fbi-mine-data-apple-google-facebook-microsoft-others-prism
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NSAKEY
China should ban Microsoft as it poses a high security risk.
I've stopped using Microsoft a long time ago and switched to Linux (ubuntu).
It is time for China to impose a ban on US IT firm too. Many US IT firms have backdoors for NSA and FBI to snoop around to gather intelligence of any kind, be it for terrorism or commercial purposes.
https://www.theverge.com/2013/6/6/4403868/nsa-fbi-mine-data-apple-google-facebook-microsoft-others-prism
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NSAKEY
China should ban Microsoft as it poses a high security risk.
I've stopped using Microsoft a long time ago and switched to Linux (ubuntu).
Tuesday, May 14, 2019
Genting - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/02/19 | DMG & Partners | Genting | 0.975 | 1.23 | Buy | DCF |
01/15/19 | Kim Eng | Genting | 1.03 | 1.26 | Buy | EV/Ebitda9x FY19 |
01/28/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Genting | 1.06 | 1.38 | Buy | EV/Ebitda10x FY19 |
02/15/19 | DMG & Partners | Genting | 1.1 | 1.23 | Buy | DCF |
02/22/19 | CIMB | Genting | 1.11 | 1.28 | Add | EV/Ebitda9x CY20 |
02/22/19 | OCBC | Genting | 1.11 | 1.31 | Buy | FCFE |
02/22/19 | DMG & Partners | Genting | 1.11 | 1.22 | Buy | DCF |
02/22/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Genting | 1.11 | 1.32 | Buy | |
02/22/19 | Kim Eng | Genting | 1.11 | 1.26 | Buy | EV/Ebitda9x FY19 |
02/25/19 | DBS Vickers | Genting | 1.07 | 1.54 | Buy | EV/Ebitda12x |
03/13/19 | DMG & Partners | Genting | 1.02 | 1.22 | Buy | |
03/26/19 | CIMB | Genting | 1.03 | 1.28 | Add | |
04/04/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Genting | 1.07 | 1.26 | Buy | EV/Ebitda 9x |
04/04/19 | DMG & Partners | Genting | 1.07 | 1.08 | Neutral | DCF |
04/04/19 | CIMB | Genting | 1.07 | 1.11 | Add | EV/Ebitda8x |
04/04/19 | OCBC | Genting | 1.07 | 1.31 | Buy | |
04/04/19 | DBS Vickers | Genting | 1.07 | 1.54 | Buy | EV/Ebitda 12x |
04/04/19 | Kim Eng | Genting | 1.07 | 1.12 | Hold | EV/Ebitda 8x FY19 |
05/10/19 | Kim Eng | Genting | 0.95 | 1.04 | Hold | |
05/10/19 | OCBC | Genting | 0.95 | 1.23 | Buy | |
05/10/19 | DMG & Partners | Genting | 0.95 | 1.02 | Neutral | DCF |
05/10/19 | CIMB | Genting | 0.95 | 1.06 | Add | EV/Ebitda8x CY20 |
05/10/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Genting | 0.95 | 1.26 | Buy | |
05/10/19 | DBS Vickers | Genting | 0.95 | 1.2 | Buy | DCF |
Fu Yu - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/02/19 | DMG & Partners | Fu Yu | 0.19 | 0.23 | Buy | DCF |
01/04/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Fu Yu | 0.186 | 0.27 | Buy | EV/Ebitda 5.3x FY19 |
01/15/19 | CIMB | Fu Yu | 0.2 | 0.2 | Hold | PB0.9x |
02/08/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Fu Yu | 0.205 | 0.27 | Buy | |
02/27/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Fu Yu | 0.21 | 0.285 | Buy | |
02/27/19 | Lim & Tan | Fu Yu | 0.21 | 0 | Buy | |
02/28/19 | DMG & Partners | Fu Yu | 0.215 | 0.24 | Buy | DCF |
02/28/19 | CIMB | Fu Yu | 0.215 | 0.2 | Hold | |
03/13/19 | DMG & Partners | Fu Yu | 0.205 | 0.24 | Buy | |
03/26/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Fu Yu | 0.2 | 0.285 | Buy | |
04/15/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Fu Yu | 0.205 | 0.285 | Buy | EV/Ebitda5.5x |
05/07/19 | DMG & Partners | Fu Yu | 0.21 | 0.24 | Buy | DCF |
05/10/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Fu Yu | 0.205 | 0.285 | Buy | |
05/10/19 | Lim & Tan | Fu Yu | 0.205 | 0 | Buy |
Frencken - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
03/12/19 | Amfrasers | Frencken | 0.51 | 0.67 | Buy | PER10x FY19 |
04/15/19 | DBS Vickers | Frencken | 0.6 | 0.75 | Buy | PER8.5x FY19/20 |
04/17/19 | CIMB | Frencken | 0.635 | 0.9 | Add | PER10x FY20 |
05/09/19 | DMG & Partners | Frencken | 0.615 | 0.82 | Buy | DCF |
05/10/19 | DBS Vickers | Frencken | 0.615 | 0.75 | Buy | PER8.5x FY19/20 |
05/10/19 | Lim & Tan | Frencken | 0.615 | 0 | Buy | |
05/10/19 | CIMB | Frencken | 0.615 | 0.9 | Add | |
05/14/19 | Amfrasers | Frencken | 0.595 | 0.67 | Buy | PER10x FY19 |
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