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Saturday, January 11, 2020

The US bases suffered damages in Iraq after Iran's attack.



It looked like some US building structures (hangers) were destroyed.  If some aircrafts were in the hangers, more than US$100m were lost.

Friday, January 10, 2020

Breadtalk - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/21/19 DBS Vickers Breadtalk 0.88 0.92 Hold Sum of parts
02/21/19 DMG & Partners Breadtalk 0.88 0.81 Neutral Sum of parts
04/05/19 DMG & Partners Breadtalk 0.87 0.81 Neutral
05/07/19 DBS Vickers Breadtalk 0.835 0.92 Hold
05/08/19 DMG & Partners Breadtalk 0.825 0.81 Neutral Sum of parts
07/02/19 DMG & Partners Breadtalk 0.75 0.81 Neutral
08/02/19 DBS Vickers Breadtalk 0.715 0.77 Hold Sum of parts
08/05/19 DMG & Partners Breadtalk 0.69 0.71 Neutral Sum of parts
09/03/19 DMG & Partners Breadtalk 0.665 0.71 Neutral
09/04/19 DMG & Partners Breadtalk 0.65 0.67 Neutral Sum of parts, EV/Ebitda7.64x
09/06/19 DBS Vickers Breadtalk 0.645 0.61 Hold Sum of parts
12/11/19 DMG & Partners Breadtalk 0.625 0.67 Neutral

BRC Asia - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
07/31/19 UOB Kay Hian BRC Asia 1.37 1.75 Buy PER11.5x FY20
08/08/19 UOB Kay Hian BRC Asia 1.31 1.75 Buy PER11.5x FY20
10/01/19 UOB Kay Hian BRC Asia 1.34 1.75 Buy
11/18/19 CIMB BRC Asia 1.47 1.9 Add
11/18/19 Lim & Tan BRC Asia 1.47 1.8 Buy DCF
11/26/19 UOB Kay Hian BRC Asia 1.49 1.75 Buy PER11.5x FY20
01/09/20 CIMB BRC Asia 1.54 1.9 Add

Boustead - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
09/23/19 CIMB Boustead 0.735 1 Add Sum of parts
11/25/19 CIMB Boustead 0.765 1 Add
01/03/20 CIMB Boustead 0.76 1 Add Sum of parts

Stock calls for 10 January 2020

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/10/20 DBS Vickers A-Reit 3.06 3.45 Buy DCF
01/10/20 UOB Kay Hian SIA 8.93 9.1 Hold Sum of parts

Thursday, January 9, 2020

Biolidics - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/27/19 CIMB Biolidics 0.27 0.32 Add EV/Sales 12x

Best World - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/28/19 DMG & Partners Best World 2.56 2.95 Buy DCF & PER18x
02/28/19 CIMB Best World 2.56 2.43 Reduce PER14.9x CY20
04/05/19 DMG & Partners Best World 2.02 2.95 Buy
04/16/19 CLSA Best World 1.77 1.75 Sell Up from $1.29
04/26/19 DMG & Partners Best World 1.62 0 Cease Coverage Suspension

Banyan Tree - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/11/19 phillip Banyan Tree 0.57 0.76 Accumulate Sum of parts, PB0.72x FY19
05/22/19 phillip Banyan Tree 0.535 0.76 Accumulate Sum of parts, PB0.7x FY19
08/16/19 phillip Banyan Tree 0.455 0.51 Accumulate Sum of parts, PB0.6x FY19

Stock calls for 9 January 2020

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/09/20 CIMB BRC Asia 1.54 1.9 Add
01/09/20 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.08 0.093 Buy DCF
01/09/20 UOB Kay Hian Unusual 0.275 0.44 Buy

The US-Iran attack will not escalate into a full blown war.

Trump declared no casualties on the US bases in Iraq.  However, Iran declared 80 Americans were killed by its missiles.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/iran-says-80-american-killed-in-the-missile-strike-here-is-all-you-should-know-about-the-attack/articleshow/73149977.cms

Does the US death toll matter? No! Why?

This is because the unjustified killing of the Iranian top general results in a strong resistance in the US to wage a war with Iran over Iran's retaliation.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/01/08/pelosi-announces-vote-to-limit-trumps-war-powers-against-iran/#734016227a2e

Nancy is trying to de-escalate the tension by limiting Trump's power and the US citizens are not supporting a US-Iran war because they do not want to be conscripted to fight an unjustified war.  Furthermore, Nancy knows that this is not the time to engage in a war because the US economy is weakening.

The upcoming US GDP will be a better number but it is an illusion. Why?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/07/us-trade-deficit-at-43point09b-in-november-vs-43point6b-estimate.html

The most recent US deficit fell to its lowest level under Trump's presidency because of the huge reduction in imports.  Being a consumption-led economy (70% of GDP), this doesn't bode well for the US because import is a precursor of local consumption.

Please read our post on China to understand the importance of imports since China is also a consumption-led economy.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/12/how-is-chinas-economy-doing.html

The reduction in imports usually signals a future reduction in consumption.  Since import is part of the GDP formula, the decline in imports will boost the GDP figure.

Please read our post on the GDP calculation.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/11/the-latest-us-gdp-growth-is-not.html

Wednesday, January 8, 2020

Avi-Tech - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/07/19 DMG & Partners Avi-Tech 0.3 0.34 Neutral
02/14/19 DMG & Partners Avi-Tech 0.29 0.3 Neutral DCF
03/19/19 DMG & Partners Avi-Tech 0.29 0.3 Neutral
07/16/19 DMG & Partners Avi-Tech 0.28 0.27 Neutral DCF
08/29/19 Lim & Tan Avi-Tech 0.27 0 Buy
09/10/19 DMG & Partners Avi-Tech 0.31 0.31 Neutral DCF
10/08/19 DMG & Partners Avi-Tech 0.34 0.31 Neutral
11/07/19 DMG & Partners Avi-Tech 0.35 0.41 Buy DCF
12/10/19 DMG & Partners Avi-Tech 0.4 0.44 Buy DCF

Ascendas India Trust - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/25/19 Jefferies Ascendas India Trust 1.08 1.2 Buy
01/28/19 DBS Vickers Ascendas India Trust 1.08 1.25 Buy DDM
02/08/19 DBS Vickers Ascendas India Trust 1.13 1.25 Buy
04/29/19 DBS Vickers Ascendas India Trust 1.27 1.4 Buy DDM
07/29/19 DBS Vickers Ascendas India Trust 1.42 1.55 Buy
10/25/19 DBS Vickers Ascendas India Trust 1.55 1.65 Buy DDM
12/19/19 DBS Vickers Ascendas India Trust 1.53 1.65 Buy

Ascendas Hospitality Trust - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/30/19 DBS Vickers Ascendas Hospitality Trust 0.835 0.98 Buy DCF
07/04/19 DBS Vickers Ascendas Hospitality Trust 1.04 1.21 Buy Pegged to ART

Stock calls for 8 January 2020

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/08/20 DMG & Partners Capitaland 3.84 4.2 Buy
01/08/20 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.63 1.78 Buy
01/08/20 CIMB Centurion 0.44 0.61 Add DCF
01/08/20 UOB Kay Hian CSE Global 0.56 0.7 Buy
01/08/20 DMG & Partners CSE Global 0.56 0.69 Buy
01/08/20 CIMB DBS 26.05 28.29 Add
01/08/20 Kim Eng DBS 26.05 29.92 Buy
01/08/20 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.255 0.27 Buy
01/08/20 DMG & Partners Keppel Corp 6.84 7.8 Buy
01/08/20 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.99 1.1 Buy
01/08/20 CIMB OCBC 11 11.94 Hold
01/08/20 DMG & Partners Oxley 0.375 0.43 Buy
01/08/20 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.26 1.39 Buy
01/08/20 DMG & Partners ST Engineering 4.02 4.55 Buy
01/08/20 DMG & Partners Unusual 0.285 0.42 Buy
01/08/20 CIMB UOB 26.7 29.1 Add
01/08/20 DMG & Partners UOB 26.7 29.5 Buy
01/08/20 DMG & Partners Wilmar 4.29 4.75 Buy

Iran has retaliated against the US by attacking 2 US bases in Iraq.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/thousands-prepare-bury-iranian-general-050819484.html

We had stated that Iran would retaliate against the US even though Trump gave a stern warning to Iran that the US would attack 52 targets including cultural sites in Iran if Iran retaliated against the US for the killing of the Iranian top general.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/01/the-recession-constellation-is-aligning.html

The ball is in the US court now.  The US and Iran would enter into a vicious cycle of retaliation if the US retaliated again.  The US had no proper justification to kill the Iranian top general in Iraq in the first place.  This unjustified killing had irked and angered the Iraqis and Iranians which prompted the Iraqi parliament to expel the US forces in Iraq.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/01/the-truth-behind-us-killing-of-top.html


Boeing 737 crashed again!

https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-airplane-180-aboard-crashes-034030181.html

We had already warned that the Boeing 737 model was a flying coffin on numerous postings.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/11/do-not-take-boeing-737-because-it-is.html

Tuesday, January 7, 2020

ART - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/10/19 OCBC ART 1.1 1.18 Buy
01/10/19 CIMB ART 1.1 1.13 Hold DDM
01/11/19 DBS Vickers ART 1.11 1.25 Buy
01/30/19 OCBC ART 1.19 1.25 Buy
01/30/19 DBS Vickers ART 1.19 1.35 Buy DCF
03/05/19 OCBC ART 1.14 1.25 Buy
03/05/19 CIMB ART 1.14 1.15 Hold
03/29/19 Lim & Tan ART 1.18 0 Hold BV
04/09/19 Phillip ART 1.18 1.36 Buy DDM, PB0.94x FY19
04/12/19 UOB Kay Hian ART 1.2 1.46 Buy DDM
04/15/19 OCBC ART 1.2 1.25 Hold
05/02/19 OCBC ART 1.2 1.25 Hold
05/02/19 UOB Kay Hian ART 1.2 1.46 Buy
05/03/19 DBS Vickers ART 1.2 1.35 Buy DCF
05/06/19 Phillip ART 1.21 1.36 Buy DDM
06/10/19 UOB Kay Hian ART 1.27 1.46 Buy
06/19/19 Phillip ART 1.31 1.36 Buy
06/25/19 OCBC ART 1.3 1.25 Hold
07/04/19 OCBC ART 1.28 1.31 Hold
07/04/19 CIMB ART 1.28 1.15 Hold DDM
07/04/19 UOB Kay Hian ART 1.28 1.46 Buy
07/05/19 Phillip ART 1.31 1.36 Accumulate DDM
07/31/19 CIMB ART 1.3 1.31 Hold DDM
07/31/19 UOB Kay Hian ART 1.3 1.54 Buy
07/31/19 DBS Vickers ART 1.3 1.45 Buy
08/02/19 DIR ART 1.32 1.34 Outperform
08/02/19 Kim Eng ART 1.32 1.3 Hold
08/02/19 Phillip ART 1.32 1.36 Accumulate DDM
08/27/19 UOB Kay Hian ART 1.3 1.54 Buy
09/24/19 Phillip ART 1.31 1.36 Accumulate
10/09/19 DBS Vickers ART 1.32 1.45 Buy
10/11/19 Phillip ART 1.31 1.42 Accumulate
10/22/19 OCBC ART 1.37 1.31 Hold
10/31/19 UOB Kay Hian ART 1.4 1.66 Buy DDM
11/01/19 Kim Eng ART 1.38 1.35 Hold DDM
11/04/19 CIMB ART 1.37 1.34 Hold
11/04/19 OCBC ART 1.37 1.41 Hold
11/22/19 UOB Kay Hian ART 1.31 1.66 Buy DDM
11/25/19 Phillip ART 1.32 1.36 Accumulate
11/25/19 DBS Vickers ART 1.32 1.45 Buy
12/19/19 Kim Eng ART 1.35 1.4 Hold DDM

ARA Hospitality - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/18/19 UOB Kay Hian ARA Hospitality 0.87 1.15 Buy
07/16/19 UOB Kay Hian ARA Hospitality 0.885 1.15 Buy
08/01/19 UOB Kay Hian ARA Hospitality 0.885 1.21 Buy DDM
10/02/19 Amfrasers ARA Hospitality 0.87 0.96 Outperform DDM
11/07/19 UOB Kay Hian ARA Hospitality 0.86 1.16 Buy DDM
11/07/19 Amfrasers ARA Hospitality 0.86 0.99 Outperform DDM
12/02/19 Amfrasers ARA Hospitality 0.855 0.99 Outperform DDM

APTV - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/01/19 Phillip APTV 0.13 0.14 Accumulate
05/16/19 Phillip APTV 0.178 0.16 Reduce EV/Ebitda11x
08/19/19 Phillip APTV 0.17 0.165 Neutral EV/Ebitda9.5x
11/12/19 Phillip APTV 0.171 0.165 Neutral EV/Ebitda9.5x

Stock calls for 7 January 2020

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Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/07/20 DMG & Partners ESR-Reit 0.545 0.6 Buy DDM

The accuracy of an economic forecast is always questionable.

We need to take economic forecasts by reputable firms with a heavy pinch of salt.  Why?

Let's take a look at Singapore's economic growth by ICAEW and Oxford Economics (OE).

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/trade-war-hit-singapore-most-se-asia-recession-2020-possibility

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-economy-gdp-2019-q4-mti-12226222

ICAEW & OE forecast : 1.9% for 2019
Actual GDP growth : 0.7% for 2019

The actual result (0.7%) is only 37% of the forecast (1.9%).  This shows that forecasting firms are too optimistic about the economic situation in spite of the ongoing US-China trade war.

Monday, January 6, 2020

APAC Realty - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/12/19 DMG & Partners APAC Realty 0.5 0.72 Buy
02/12/19 DBS Vickers APAC Realty 0.5 0.56 Hold
03/01/19 DMG & Partners APAC Realty 0.57 0.72 Buy DCF
03/01/19 DBS Vickers APAC Realty 0.57 0.7 Buy PER12x
04/04/19 DMG & Partners APAC Realty 0.615 0.72 Buy RNAV
05/07/19 DMG & Partners APAC Realty 0.555 0.72 Buy
05/14/19 DMG & Partners APAC Realty 0.545 0.67 Buy DCF
05/16/19 DBS Vickers APAC Realty 0.525 0.58 Hold PER10x
06/03/19 Phillip APAC Realty 0.5 0.65 Buy DCF
06/06/19 DMG & Partners APAC Realty 0.5 0.67 Buy
06/07/19 CIMB APAC Realty 0.51 0.67 Add
07/15/19 Phillip APAC Realty 0.545 0.65 Buy DCF
08/06/19 DMG & Partners APAC Realty 0.525 0.65 Buy DCF
08/06/19 DBS Vickers APAC Realty 0.525 0.48 Hold PER10x FY20
08/08/19 Phillip APAC Realty 0.515 0.58 Buy DCF
08/13/19 CIMB APAC Realty 0.51 0.6 Add PER10x FY20
09/12/19 DMG & Partners APAC Realty 0.495 0.65 Buy
11/14/19 CIMB APAC Realty 0.515 0.66 Add DCF
11/14/19 DMG & Partners APAC Realty 0.515 0.6 Buy DCF
11/14/19 DBS Vickers APAC Realty 0.515 0.46 Hold PER12x FY20
11/18/19 Phillip APAC Realty 0.5 0.55 Accumulate DCF
12/16/19 DMG & Partners APAC Realty 0.505 0.6 Buy

Amara - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/05/19 DMG & Partners Amara 0.46 0.88 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
12/11/19 DMG & Partners Amara 0.45 0.88 Buy

AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/25/19 Kim Eng AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit 1.42 1.5 Buy DDM
04/25/19 DBS Vickers AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit 1.42 1.5 Buy DCF
05/16/19 DBS Vickers AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit 1.4 1.5 Buy DCF
07/19/19 DBS Vickers AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit 1.46 1.5 Buy DCF
07/25/19 Lim & Tan AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit 1.47 0 Hold
07/26/19 Kim Eng AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit 1.47 1.6 Buy DDM
11/07/19 DBS Vickers AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit 1.4 1.5 Buy DCF

Stock calls for 6 January 2020

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/06/20 DBS Vickers Delfi 1 1.51 Buy
01/06/20 DBS Vickers Koufu 0.775 0.88 Buy
01/06/20 DBS Vickers Sheng Siong 1.3 1.32 Buy
01/06/20 UOB Kay Hian SPH 2.15 2.3 Hold Sum of parts
01/06/20 DBS Vickers Thai Beverage 0.895 1.04 Buy

The truth behind the US killing of top Iranian commander.

Why did the US kill the top Iranian commander?

Well, this is the real scoop.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/10/when-us-says-it-is-deploying-its-troops.html

Firstly, the US plundered the Syrian oil field and profited around US$30m.  The US troops based in Iraq went over to Syria to conduct this unscrupulous misdeed.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iraq-rocket-attack-us-military-death-latest-a9262121.html

Then, the Iran-backed fighters fired 30 rockets at the US base in Iraq to take revenge for Syria.  Thereafter, Trump ordered the drone attack against the top Iranian general in Iraq in retaliation without informing Iraq.

The US stole Syrian oil and suffered the consequences but couldn't take it down and proceeded to kill the Iranian general.  Where is the justice in this?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50979463

Saturday, January 4, 2020

Baltic dry index - 907

Today, Friday, January 03 2020, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 69 points, reaching 907 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stock: Sembcor Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 796


Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

The recession constellation is aligning in the US! - Part 2

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/12/the-recession-constellation-are.html

1. Tltro II will expire in March 2020.
2. ISM PMI reported its first contraction for August (Below 50) in September. The US recession may happen at the earliest 6 months later which is in March 2020.
3. The Republicans want to remove its President by March 2020. Nancy Pelosi just needs to get some Republicans to deflect to impeach Trump.
4. The opec+ will end the oil production cut in March 2020.  This will affect the US shale oil industry because the US has been gaining the oil market share at the expense of opec+.
5. Iran's retaliation against the US for the latest airstrike.

Iran will definitely retaliate but the severity of the retaliation is a big uncertain for the US market.