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Tuesday, January 7, 2020

The accuracy of an economic forecast is always questionable.

We need to take economic forecasts by reputable firms with a heavy pinch of salt.  Why?

Let's take a look at Singapore's economic growth by ICAEW and Oxford Economics (OE).

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/trade-war-hit-singapore-most-se-asia-recession-2020-possibility

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-economy-gdp-2019-q4-mti-12226222

ICAEW & OE forecast : 1.9% for 2019
Actual GDP growth : 0.7% for 2019

The actual result (0.7%) is only 37% of the forecast (1.9%).  This shows that forecasting firms are too optimistic about the economic situation in spite of the ongoing US-China trade war.

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