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Wednesday, January 29, 2020

Food Empire - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/04/19 DMG & Partners Food Empire 0.58 0.69 Buy
04/05/19 DMG & Partners Food Empire 0.56 0.69 Buy
08/13/19 DMG & Partners Food Empire 0.525 0.73 Buy PER13x FY19
11/12/19 DMG & Partners Food Empire 0.54 0.73 Buy
11/21/19 DMG & Partners Food Empire 0.6 0.83 Buy PER12x FY20
12/11/19 DMG & Partners Food Empire 0.6 0.73 Buy
01/17/20 DMG & Partners Food Empire 0.705 0.83 Buy PER12x FY20

First Sponsor - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/22/19 DBS Vickers First Sponsor 1.27 1.62 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
07/26/19 DBS Vickers First Sponsor 1.31 1.62 Buy RNAV (35% discount)

Stock calls for 29 January 2020

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Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/29/20 Lim & Tan Capitaland 3.7 0 Hold
01/29/20 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.86 3.11 Accumulate DDM
01/29/20 UOB Kay Hian Parkway Life 3.6 3.78 Buy DDM

Tuesday, January 28, 2020

What will the FED do for the upcoming meeting?

Let's analyze the 4 US interest rates to find out.

Iorr: 1.55% (Same as Dec 2019), Max limit is 1.75% as set by the US FED.


Effr: 1.55% (Same as Dec 2019)

Ioer: 1.55% (Same as Dec 2019)

On RRP: 1.45% (Same as Dec 2019), Min limit is 1.5% as set by the US FED.

Effr: 1.55%
Ioer: 1.55%

The Effr-Ioer spread is zero which means there is no monetary tightening condition.  However, the On RRP (1.45%) is below the minimum limit set by the US FED because of the repo market intervention.  Since the 4 US rates are the same as the previous month, we can project with the confidence that the US FED will stay put.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/12/will-us-fed-cut-its-rates-in-december.html

First Resources - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/03/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.56 1.6 Hold
02/20/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.72 1.85 Hold PER13x FY19, Buy @ $1.65
02/21/19 Kim Eng First Resources 1.69 2.1 Buy
03/01/19 Kim Eng First Resources 1.71 2.03 Buy PER17x
03/04/19 DMG & Partners First Resources 1.72 1.6 Neutral PER13x FY19
03/04/19 DBS Vickers First Resources 1.72 1.97 Buy DCF
03/05/19 CIMB First Resources 1.7 2.12 Add
03/12/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.69 1.85 Hold Buy @ $1.65
04/09/19 CIMB First Resources 1.79 2.12 Add
04/22/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.85 1.85 Hold
05/06/19 Kim Eng First Resources 1.82 2.03 Buy PER17x FY19
05/09/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.79 1.85 Hold PER13x FY19, Buy @ $1.65
05/16/19 DMG & Partners First Resources 1.7 1.53 Neutral PER13x FY20
05/16/19 Kim Eng First Resources 1.7 1.93 Buy PER17x
05/16/19 DBS Vickers First Resources 1.7 1.95 Buy DCF, PER16.5x FY19
05/16/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.7 1.7 Hold Buy @ $1.50
06/06/19 DMG & Partners First Resources 1.56 1.53 Neutral
07/02/19 Kim Eng First Resources 1.6 1.93 Buy
07/16/19 DBS Vickers First Resources 1.55 1.82 Buy DCF
08/06/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.53 1.6 Hold Buy @ $1.45
08/15/19 Kim Eng First Resources 1.57 1.8 Buy PER17x FY20
08/15/19 DMG & Partners First Resources 1.57 1.45 Neutral PER14x FY20
08/15/19 CIMB First Resources 1.57 1.76 Add
08/21/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.5 1.6 Hold Buy @ $1.45
08/21/19 DBS Vickers First Resources 1.5 1.8 Buy DCF
09/30/19 DMG & Partners First Resources 1.6 1.9 Buy PER18x FY20
11/07/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.73 1.9 Buy PER15x FY20
11/12/19 DMG & Partners First Resources 1.73 1.95 Buy PER18x FY20
11/13/19 Kim Eng First Resources 1.78 1.86 Hold PER18x FY20
11/13/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.78 1.85 Buy
11/13/19 DBS Vickers First Resources 1.78 1.95 Buy DCF
12/10/19 DBS Vickers First Resources 1.83 2.1 Buy DCF
01/20/20 DMG & Partners First Resources 1.77 2.3 Buy PER18x FY20

First Reit - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/16/19 phillip First Reit 1.04 0.88 Neutral DDM
01/17/19 Lim & Tan First Reit 1.03 0 Neutral
01/18/19 OCBC First Reit 1.01 0.97 Hold
01/18/19 CIMB First Reit 1.01 1.2 Add DDM
02/11/19 OCBC First Reit 1.14 0.97 Sell
04/11/19 CIMB First Reit 0.99 1.2 Add DDM
08/13/19 CIMB First Reit 1.06 1.23 Add
11/07/19 CIMB First Reit 1.05 1.2 Add DDM

Far East Hospitality - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 CIMB Far East Hospitality 0.605 0.68 Add
01/16/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.625 0.675 Buy
02/07/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.66 0.675 Buy
02/13/19 Lim & Tan Far East Hospitality 0.64 0 Buy
02/14/19 DBS Vickers Far East Hospitality 0.635 0.7 Buy DCF
02/14/19 CIMB Far East Hospitality 0.635 0.68 Add DDM
02/14/19 Kim Eng Far East Hospitality 0.635 0.75 Buy DDM
02/14/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.635 0.68 Buy
04/15/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.685 0.68 Hold
04/26/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.66 0.67 Hold
04/26/19 DBS Vickers Far East Hospitality 0.66 0.7 Buy
04/29/19 CIMB Far East Hospitality 0.665 0.71 Add
04/29/19 Kim Eng Far East Hospitality 0.665 0.8 Buy
06/12/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.645 0.67 Hold
06/25/19 Kim Eng Far East Hospitality 0.675 0.8 Buy
07/22/19 UOB Kay Hian Far East Hospitality 0.685 0.82 Buy DDM
07/31/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.685 0.67 Hold
07/31/19 CIMB Far East Hospitality 0.685 0.68 Hold
08/01/19 DBS Vickers Far East Hospitality 0.68 0.7 Hold DCF
08/27/19 UOB Kay Hian Far East Hospitality 0.65 0.82 Buy
09/19/19 Kim Eng Far East Hospitality 0.675 0.8 Buy
10/09/19 DBS Vickers Far East Hospitality 0.69 0.7 Hold
10/30/19 Lim & Tan Far East Hospitality 0.7 0 Hold
10/31/19 UOB Kay Hian Far East Hospitality 0.71 0.86 Buy DCF
10/31/19 DBS Vickers Far East Hospitality 0.71 0.8 Buy
11/01/19 Kim Eng Far East Hospitality 0.73 0.8 Buy DDM
11/04/19 CIMB Far East Hospitality 0.735 0.7 Hold
11/04/19 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.735 0.68 Hold
11/21/19 Kim Eng Far East Hospitality 0.72 0.8 Buy
12/19/19 DBS Vickers Far East Hospitality 0.72 0.8 Buy
01/14/20 DBS Vickers Far East Hospitality 0.755 0.8 Buy

Stock calls for 28 January 2020

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/28/20 Lim & Tan BRC Asia 1.69 0 Buy on weakness
01/28/20 DBS Vickers Cache Logistics 0.725 0.75 Hold DCF
01/28/20 OCBC ESR-Reit 0.56 0.6 Buy
01/28/20 DBS Vickers Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.715 0.78 Hold DCF
01/28/20 Lim & Tan Hong Leong Asia 0.625 0 Buy on weakness
01/28/20 DMG & Partners ISOTeam 0.23 0.31 Buy DCF
01/28/20 DBS Vickers Keppel Corp 6.75 7.5 Buy Sum of parts
01/28/20 Lim & Tan KSH 0.415 0 Buy on weakness
01/28/20 Lim & Tan PanUnited 0.375 0 Buy on weakness
01/28/20 OCBC Soilbuild Reit 0.515 0.52 Hold
01/28/20 OCBC Suntec Reit 1.86 2.05 Buy

Saturday, January 25, 2020

Baltic dry index - 557

Today, Friday, January 24 2020, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 19 points, reaching 557 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 794


Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Friday, January 24, 2020

Ezion - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/07/19 DBS Vickers Ezion 0.05 0.06 Hold PB0.3x FY19
03/11/19 DBS Vickers Ezion 0.043 0.05 Hold PER10x F20
04/05/19 DBS Vickers Ezion 0.043 0.05 Hold PB1.4x

ESR-Reit - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/18/19 Lim & Tan ESR-Reit 0.53 0 Hold
01/21/19 CIMB ESR-Reit 0.53 0.62 Add DDM
01/21/19 OCBC ESR-Reit 0.53 0.575 Buy
01/22/19 DBS Vickers ESR-Reit 0.53 0.59 Buy
02/12/19 DMG & Partners ESR-Reit 0.515 0.61 Buy DDM
03/07/19 CIMB ESR-Reit 0.53 0.62 Add
03/13/19 DMG & Partners ESR-Reit 0.53 0.61 Buy
04/10/19 OCBC ESR-Reit 0.54 0.55 Hold
04/25/19 CIMB ESR-Reit 0.51 0.6 Add DDM
04/25/19 OCBC ESR-Reit 0.51 0.565 Buy
06/18/19 CIMB ESR-Reit 0.565 0.6 Add DDM
06/19/19 OCBC ESR-Reit 0.53 0.56 Buy
07/24/19 OCBC ESR-Reit 0.535 0.58 Buy
07/24/19 CIMB ESR-Reit 0.535 0.61 Add DDM
08/21/19 Citibank ESR-Reit 0.51 0.57 Buy
10/25/19 OCBC ESR-Reit 0.54 0.58 Buy
10/29/19 DMG & Partners ESR-Reit 0.53 0.6 Buy DDM
12/10/19 DMG & Partners ESR-Reit 0.545 0.6 Buy
01/07/20 DMG & Partners ESR-Reit 0.545 0.6 Buy DDM
01/24/20 DBS Vickers ESR-Reit 0.56 0.59 Buy DCF

EC World Reit - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/09/19 DMG & Partners EC World Reit 0.7 0.81 Buy
02/15/19 phillip EC World Reit 0.745 0.82 Buy
02/22/19 DBS Vickers EC World Reit 0.745 0.86 Buy DCF
02/25/19 DMG & Partners EC World Reit 0.755 0.84 Buy DDM
03/04/19 phillip EC World Reit 0.76 0.85 Buy DDM, PB0.84x FY19
03/18/19 DMG & Partners EC World Reit 0.77 0.84 Buy
05/07/19 DMG & Partners EC World Reit 0.77 0.84 Buy
05/14/19 DMG & Partners EC World Reit 0.79 0.85 Buy DDM
05/14/19 DBS Vickers EC World Reit 0.79 0.86 Buy
05/15/19 phillip EC World Reit 0.785 0.87 Buy DDM, PB0.93x
06/19/19 phillip EC World Reit 0.775 0.87 Buy
07/04/19 DMG & Partners EC World Reit 0.78 0.85 Buy
07/22/19 phillip EC World Reit 0.755 0.87 Buy
08/08/19 phillip EC World Reit 0.735 0.87 Buy DDM
08/08/19 DMG & Partners EC World Reit 0.735 0.82 Buy DDM
09/24/19 phillip EC World Reit 0.735 0.87 Buy
10/18/19 phillip EC World Reit 0.735 0.87 Buy
11/12/19 phillip EC World Reit 0.74 0.84 Buy DDM
11/12/19 DBS Vickers EC World Reit 0.74 0.86 Buy DCF
11/26/19 Amfrasers EC World Reit 0.74 0.84 outperform DDM
12/02/19 Amfrasers EC World Reit 0.745 0.84 outperform DDM
12/10/19 DMG & Partners EC World Reit 0.765 0.82 Buy

Stock calls for 24 January 2020

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/24/20 DBS Vickers AEM 2.05 2.38 Buy PER12.1x FY20
01/24/20 Kim Eng Cache Logistics 0.725 0.8 Buy DDM
01/24/20 DBS Vickers CapitaCommercial 2.12 2.3 Buy
01/24/20 Phillip Capitamall Trust 2.57 2.7 Accumulate DDM
01/24/20 DBS Vickers Capitamall Trust 2.57 2.95 Buy
01/24/20 DBS Vickers ESR-Reit 0.56 0.59 Buy DCF
01/24/20 DBS Vickers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.86 2.95 Buy
01/24/20 DBS Vickers Frencken 0.91 1.06 Buy PER10x FY20
01/24/20 UOB Kay Hian Keppel Corp 6.74 7.75 Buy Sum of parts
01/24/20 DBS Vickers Keppel Pacific 0.785 0.9 Buy DCF
01/24/20 DBS Vickers Keppel Reit 1.27 1.45 Buy DCF
01/24/20 DBS Vickers Mapletree Commercial 2.43 2.6 Buy
01/24/20 Lim & Tan Mapletree Commercial 2.43 0 Hold
01/24/20 DBS Vickers SGX 8.82 9.6 Buy DDM, PER21x FY21
01/24/20 DBS Vickers Soilbuild Reit 0.52 0.55 Hold DCF
01/24/20 DBS Vickers Starhub 1.49 1.72 Buy DCF
01/24/20 Citibank Starhub 1.49 1.22 Sell
01/24/20 DBS Vickers Suntec Reit 1.85 2.15 Buy DCF
01/24/20 DBS Vickers UMS 0.98 1.16 Buy PER14.9x FY20

Thursday, January 23, 2020

Eagle Hospitality Trust - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
08/30/19 UOB Kay Hian Eagle Hospitality Trust 0.675 1.02 Buy DDM
10/02/19 Amfrasers Eagle Hospitality Trust 0.68 0.84 outperform DDM
10/25/19 UOB Kay Hian Eagle Hospitality Trust 0.645 1.02 Buy DDM
10/29/19 Amfrasers Eagle Hospitality Trust 0.545 0.72 outperform DDM
11/18/19 Amfrasers Eagle Hospitality Trust 0.535 0.61 Buy DDM
12/02/19 Amfrasers Eagle Hospitality Trust 0.525 0.61 outperform DDM

Duty Free - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/10/19 Lim & Tan Duty Free 0.192 0 Accumulate

Delfi - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Delfi 1.32 1.59 Buy
03/01/19 DMG & Partners Delfi 1.45 1.68 Buy DCF, PER28x FY19
04/05/19 DMG & Partners Delfi 1.3 1.68 Buy
05/07/19 DMG & Partners Delfi 1.3 1.68 Buy DCF, PER28x FY19
08/14/19 DMG & Partners Delfi 1.24 1.68 Buy DCF, PER28x FY19
10/31/19 DBS Vickers Delfi 0.995 1.49 Buy PER23.7x FY20
11/13/19 DMG & Partners Delfi 0.955 1.68 Buy DCF
11/14/19 DBS Vickers Delfi 0.96 1.51 Buy PER23.1x FY20
12/11/19 DMG & Partners Delfi 1 1.68 Buy
01/06/20 DBS Vickers Delfi 1 1.51 Buy

Stock calls for 23 January 2020

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/23/20 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 2.13 2.3 Buy
01/23/20 UOB Kay Hian Capitamall Trust 2.59 2.88 Buy
01/23/20 Kim Eng Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.8 2.85 Hold DDM
01/23/20 Lim & Tan Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.8 0 Hold
01/23/20 UOB Kay Hian Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.8 3.05 Buy
01/23/20 DBS Vickers Keppel DC Reit 2.22 2.4 Buy DCF
01/23/20 Kim Eng Mapletree Commercial 2.44 2.45 Hold DDM
01/23/20 UOB Kay Hian Mapletree Industrial 2.77 2.9 Buy
01/23/20 DBS Vickers Sheng Siong 1.26 1.41 Buy PER25x FY20

The recession constellation is aligning in the US! - Part 3

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/01/the-recession-constellation-is-aligning.html

1. Tltro II will expire in March 2020.
2. ISM PMI reported its first contraction for August (Below 50) in September. The US recession may happen at the earliest 6 months later which is in March 2020.
3. The Republicans want to remove its President by March 2020. Nancy Pelosi just needs to get some Republicans to deflect to impeach Trump.
4. The opec+ will end the oil production cut in March 2020.  This will affect the US shale oil industry because the US has been gaining the oil market share at the expense of opec+.
5. Iran's retaliation against the US for the latest airstrike.
6. Wuhan virus.

CNY is approaching and there will be massive festive travellers in China.  If there is an outbreak during the CNY, the global economy will suffer soon.  Just look at the SARS outbreak and its economic impacts and you will know where the global economies are heading.

Canada and the US are trying to twist and turn the charge against Huawei Meng.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-prosecutor-set-defend-u-111334522.html

Yes, bank fraud is a criminal charge in the US and Canada.  However, the so-called "bank fraud" was committed in HK and HSBC never reported the bank fraud in HK.  Therefore, the US and Canada have no legitimate reason to put Meng under arrest.

If Meng is extradited to the US based on bank fraud committed in HK, then all the bank frauds in the world can be extradited to the US.  Meng was first arrested because she violated US sanction against Iran but Canada didn't have Iran sanction at that moment.  Thus, there was no double criminality issue at all in the US & Canada.

The US and Canada have a weak case over Meng.  If these 2 countries continue with their antics, they will lose their credibilities.

Many analysts are casting doubts on the viability of the phase 1 deal between the US and China.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3047018/chinas-trade-war-deal-may-be-doomed-start-scepticism-mounts

We had stated much earlier (April 2019) that the US-China trade deal wouldn't work.  It would be impossible for China to fulfill the terms in phase 1 deal since it had to be done based on market principles.  In other words, many US products are not competitive enough for China to import more.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/01/the-phase-1-us-china-trade-deal-can-be.html

Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Del Monte - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/21/19 Lim & Tan Del Monte 0.12 0 Buy