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Thursday, January 23, 2020

The recession constellation is aligning in the US! - Part 3

1. Tltro II will expire in March 2020.
2. ISM PMI reported its first contraction for August (Below 50) in September. The US recession may happen at the earliest 6 months later which is in March 2020.
3. The Republicans want to remove its President by March 2020. Nancy Pelosi just needs to get some Republicans to deflect to impeach Trump.
4. The opec+ will end the oil production cut in March 2020.  This will affect the US shale oil industry because the US has been gaining the oil market share at the expense of opec+.
5. Iran's retaliation against the US for the latest airstrike.
6. Wuhan virus.

CNY is approaching and there will be massive festive travellers in China.  If there is an outbreak during the CNY, the global economy will suffer soon.  Just look at the SARS outbreak and its economic impacts and you will know where the global economies are heading.

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