Stock calls for 1 April 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/01/20	Jefferies	DBS	18.57	20	Buy
04/01/20	Citibank	DBS	18.57	17.5	Sell
04/01/20	DBS Vickers	Fu Yu	0.198	0.21	Hold
04/01/20	DBS Vickers	OCBC	8.54	8.6	Hold
04/01/20	Jefferies	OCBC	8.54	10	Buy
04/01/20	Citibank	OCBC	8.54	8.85	Sell
04/01/20	CIMB	Singtel	2.54	3.4	Add	Sum of parts
04/01/20	DMG & Partners	Talkmed	0.43	0.53	Buy	DCF
04/01/20	DBS Vickers	UOB	19.45	19	Hold
04/01/20	Jefferies	UOB	19.45	19.5	Hold
04/01/20	Citibank	UOB	19.45	19.3	Sell
04/01/20	UOB Kay Hian	Venture	13.57	15.5	Buy

Red alert: The US economy is going to contract sharply in Q2.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/majority-of-americans-cut-back-on-spending-because-of-coronavirus-concerns-140044412.html

Since 70% of the US economy is supported by consumer spending, any cutback in local consumption is going to affect the US GDP greatly.

More than half (52%) have started the cutback and more will follow as the infections and death toll rise.

The US death toll has exceed China's.

The US is the real sick man of the west.  The top 3 most infected countries are all western countries.

What's next after covid-19 outbreak? - Part 2

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/trump-calls-for-2-trillion-infrastructure-bill-to-create-jobs-1.1415223

Trump has already pumped US$2.2T into the financial market to salvage the economic situation.  He is upping his ante with another US$2T infrastructure bill.  This brings the total stimulus package to US$4.2T.

Trump cannot keep throwing trillions at the covid-19 crisis, hoping to get rid of it with money.  There will be serious repercussions (Hyperinflation) in the US and the world when Trump uses excessive monetary and fiscal policies.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/whats-next-after-covid-19-outbreak.html

I'm getting worried now!

Yanlord - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/01/19	OCBC	Yanlord	1.39	1.75	Buy	PER5x
04/12/19	OCBC	Yanlord	1.47	1.75	Buy	PER5x FY19
05/16/19	OCBC	Yanlord	1.44	1.68	Buy	PER5x FY19/20
05/17/19	DBS Vickers	Yanlord	1.44	1.47	Hold	PER6x FY19/20
07/15/19	OCBC	Yanlord	1.32	1.68	Buy
08/14/19	OCBC	Yanlord	1.13	1.68	Buy	PER5x FY19/20
03/02/20	DBS Vickers	Yanlord	1.16	1.1	Hold	PER4.5x FY20

Yangzijiang - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/04/19	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.42	1.82	Buy
03/01/19	CIMB	Yangzijiang	1.43	1.61	Add	Sum of parts
03/04/19	OCBC	Yangzijiang	1.44	1.44	Hold
03/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	Yangzijiang	1.44	1.39	Hold	PB0.9x FY19, Buy @ $1.25
03/04/19	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.44	1.82	buy	Sum of parts, PB1.1x
05/02/19	CIMB	Yangzijiang	1.57	1.61	Hold	Sum of parts
05/02/19	OCBC	Yangzijiang	1.57	1.45	Hold	Sum of parts
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.57	1.82	Buy	Sum of parts
06/11/19	OCBC	Yangzijiang	1.4	1.45	Hold
07/18/19	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.5	1.82	Buy
08/07/19	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.37	1.82	Buy	Sum of parts
08/13/19	CIMB	Yangzijiang	1.04	1.61	Hold	Sum of parts
09/10/19	UOB Kay Hian	Yangzijiang	0.98	1.46	Buy	PB0.84x
10/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	Yangzijiang	0.95	1.46	Buy
11/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	Yangzijiang	0.98	1.46	Buy	PB0.9x
11/18/19	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1	1.68	Buy	Sum of parts
11/25/19	CIMB	Yangzijiang	1.02	1.45	Add
12/11/19	UOB Kay Hian	Yangzijiang	1.09	1.46	Buy	PB0.84x
12/23/19	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.07	1.68	Buy
12/27/19	CIMB	Yangzijiang	1.13	1.45	Add
12/27/19	OCBC	Yangzijiang	1.13	1.39	Buy	Sum of parts
01/14/20	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.16	1.68	Buy
01/20/20	UOB Kay Hian	Yangzijiang	1.16	1.46	Buy
02/01/20	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	0.97	1.68	Buy
03/02/20	OCBC	Yangzijiang	0.945	1.2	Buy	Sum of parts
03/02/20	UOB Kay Hian	Yangzijiang	0.945	1.4	Buy
03/02/20	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	0.945	1.5	Buy	Sum of parts, PB0.9x
03/17/20	UOB Kay Hian	Yangzijiang	0.8	1.25	Buy	PB0.72x

Y Venture - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/28/19	DBS Vickers	Y Venture	0.13	0.11	Cease Coverage	EV/Ebitda14x FY19
01/28/19	CIMB	Y Venture	0.13	0.1	Reduce	PB1.7x FY20
03/08/19	Phillip	Y Venture	0.078	0.16	Buy	PER30x
03/25/19	CIMB	Y Venture	0.06	0.15	Add
04/17/19	Phillip	Y Venture	0.156	0.16	Cease Coverage

Stock calls for 31 March 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/31/20	CIMB	Capitamall Trust	1.75	2.75	Add
03/31/20	DBS Vickers	Comfortdelgro	1.48	1.55	Hold	PER15x FY20
03/31/20	CIMB	Comfortdelgro	1.48	1.55	Hold
03/31/20	CIMB	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.18	3.1	Add
03/31/20	DMG & Partners	OCBC	8.52	9.6	Neutral

Prominent economists El Erian and Janet Yellen got their predictions wrong. Hahaha!

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/a-billion-dollar-question-will-us-enter.html

Both prominent economists (El Erian and Janet Yellen) got their predictions wrong.  They projected no recession in 2020 but the IMF had declared a global recession in 2020.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/imf-declares-global-recession.html

Lady's luck was not on their sides but on our side. Hahaha!

The 2 achilles' heels of the US economy. - Part 3

https://www.ccn.com/did-the-fed-just-accidentally-trigger-a-housing-market-crash/

The US housing market is starting to crumble because of the MBS.

Furthermore, St. Louis FED is projecting about 50m unemployment in Q2 with an employment rate of 32%.

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2020/march/back-envelope-estimates-next-quarters-unemployment-rate

This high unemployment rate is bad news for the housing market too.

Just as we had expected, the US corporate and mortgage debts are starting to blow up.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-2-achilles-heels-of-us-economy-part.html

What will happen when the credit ratings for oil & gas companies get downgraded? - Part 2

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/29/oil-rich-wealth-funds-seen-shedding-upto-225-billion-in-stocks.html

Our prediction has come true again!

The oil wealth funds have started selling their assets just as we've projected.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/what-will-happen-when-credit-ratings.html

What's next after covid-19 outbreak?

I've been asked by my readers in email for my opinion about some risk after covid-19.

I cannot answer all of the questions.  Therefore, I will pick the question that arouses my interest.

My biggest concern after covid-19 will be hyperinflation because of the excessive monetary and fiscal policies implemented to salvage the economic situation.  Yes, EXCESSIVE is not good!

I'm afraid that hyperinflation will cause the central banks to up their interest rates so fast that it will cause liquidity issues and crumble the financial industry, and this will cause another financial crisis before we can even recover from the covid-19 fallout.

Let's just see how this will unfold before I comment further.

Wing Tai - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/14/19	OCBC	Wing Tai	2.03	2.41	Buy
04/17/19	OCBC	Wing Tai	2.06	2.41	Buy
05/14/19	OCBC	Wing Tai	2.01	2.41	Buy
06/27/19	OCBC	Wing Tai	2.05	2.41	Buy
07/15/19	OCBC	Wing Tai	2.07	2.41	Buy
10/15/19	OCBC	Wing Tai	2.07	2.27	Buy
02/13/20	UOB Kay Hian	Wing Tai	1.97	2.54	Buy