Stock calls for 28 July 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/28/20	Lim & Tan	GL Ltd	0.59	0.7	Hold
07/28/20	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.965	1.08	Buy	DDM
07/28/20	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.39	0.482	Hold
07/28/20	DMG & Partners	Raffles Medical	0.92	0.91	Neutral	DCF
07/28/20	UOB Kay Hian	Raffles Medical	0.92	1.07	Buy	DCF
07/28/20	CIMB	Raffles Medical	0.92	0.96	Hold
07/28/20	Kim Eng	Raffles Medical	0.92	0.99	Hold	DCF
07/28/20	OCBC	Raffles Medical	0.92	0.96	Hold
07/28/20	DBS Vickers	Raffles Medical	0.92	0.95	Hold
07/28/20	Lim & Tan	Raffles Medical	0.92	0	Hold
07/28/20	UOB Kay Hian	Singtel	2.5	2.8	Buy	DCF
07/28/20	Phillip	UG Healthcare	1.75	2.7	Buy	PER15x FY21

The USD is depreciating just as we've predicted.

The USD index chart is at a 2-year low!

The USD is depreciating just as we've predicted and everything has played out according to our analyses.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/weve-correctly-predicted-end-of-good-us.html

What were our previous analyses?

1. We projected in August 2019 that there would be a US recession after March 2020.  It happened.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/a-billion-dollar-question-will-us-enter.html

2. Then, we predicted the subsequent US actions.  They were:
a) Credit rating downgrades
b) FED was short of USD
c) US treasury was flushed with USD

All the predictions came true.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/weve-correctly-predicted-end-of-good-us_11.html

The PM-Designate Heng doesn't have a strong mandate from Singaporeans. - Part 2

https://sg.yahoo.com/news/comment-cabinet-changes-show-singapores-political-succession-is-faltering-081150311.html

Look like we hit the nail on its head.

PM Lee seems to have doubts about PM-Designate Heng now because of the election result.  If not, he would have said that his next successor would still be Heng.

We had stated previously that Heng didn't have a strong mandate from Singaporeans.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/the-pm-designate-heng-doesnt-have.html

Geo Energy - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/04/19	phillip	Geo Energy	0.155	0.15	Neutral
08/29/19	Amfrasers	Geo Energy	0.15	0.14	Neutral	DCF
09/24/19	Amfrasers	Geo Energy	0.148	0.14	Neutral	DCF

Genting - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/05/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.9	0.97	Neutral	EV/Ebitda7x FY19
08/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	0.9	1.11	Buy
08/06/19	Kim Eng	Genting	0.885	0.99	Hold
08/06/19	Citibank	Genting	0.885	1.07	Buy
08/06/19	CIMB	Genting	0.885	1	Add	EV/Ebitda8x CY20
08/06/19	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.885	1.2	Buy
08/06/19	Lim & Tan	Genting	0.885	0	Hold
10/01/19	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.88	1.2	Buy
10/11/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.9	0.97	Neutral
10/25/19	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	0.925	1.11	Buy
11/08/19	Kim Eng	Genting	0.96	0.99	Hold	EV/Ebitda7x FY20
11/08/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.96	0.97	Neutral	EV/Ebitda7x FY20
11/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	0.96	1.11	Buy
12/11/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.915	0.97	Neutral
01/14/20	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.92	1.2	Buy
02/10/20	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.86	1.2	Buy
02/11/20	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	0.85	0.95	Buy
02/13/20	Kim Eng	Genting	0.875	0.99	Buy	EV/Ebitda7x FY20
02/13/20	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.875	0.85	Neutral	EV/Ebitda7x FY20
02/13/20	CIMB	Genting	0.875	1	Add	EV/Ebitda8x CY21
02/13/20	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.875	1.1	Buy	DCF
03/18/20	CIMB	Genting	0.62	0.76	Add	EV/Ebitda7x FY21
03/18/20	Kim Eng	Genting	0.62	0.84	Buy
03/20/20	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.51	0.64	Buy	EV/Ebitda6x FY20/21
03/20/20	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.51	0.8	Buy	DCF & EV/Ebita6x FY20
04/06/20	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.65	0.81	Buy
04/06/20	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	0.65	0.8	Buy	EV/Ebitda8.9x FY20
05/04/20	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.785	0.75	Hold	Sum of parts
05/14/20	Lim & Tan	Genting	0.765	0	Sell
05/14/20	Kim Eng	Genting	0.765	0.81	Buy	DCF
05/14/20	CIMB	Genting	0.765	0.76	Add	EV/Ebitda7x FY21
05/15/20	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.73	0.64	Take Profit	EV/Ebitda6x FY21
06/29/20	Lim & Tan	Genting	0.76	0	Hold
07/01/20	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.76	0.73	Neutral	EV/Ebitda6x FY21
07/02/20	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	0.765	0.8	Hold	Buy @ $0.68
07/07/20	CIMB	Genting	0.78	0.84	Add
07/23/20	Kim Eng	Genting	0.77	0.8	Hold	DCF

Fu Yu - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/09/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.215	0.24	Buy	DCF
07/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.215	0.29	Buy
08/14/19	Lim & Tan	Fu Yu	0.215	0	Buy
08/14/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.215	0.24	Buy	DCF
08/14/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.215	0.285	Buy
09/11/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.215	0.24	Buy
09/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.23	0.285	Buy	EV/Ebitda5.7x FY19
10/02/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.22	0.24	Buy	DCF
10/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.225	0.285	Buy
11/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.225	0.285	Buy
11/14/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.225	0.24	Buy	DCF
11/14/19	Lim & Tan	Fu Yu	0.225	0	Buy
11/29/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.235	0.295	Buy
12/10/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.25	0.27	Buy	DCF
12/13/19	Lim & Tan	Fu Yu	0.25	0	Buy
01/08/20	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.255	0.27	Buy
01/15/20	DBS Vickers	Fu Yu	0.25	0.35	Buy	PER16x FY20
01/15/20	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.25	0.29	Buy	DCF
02/26/20	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.26	0.3	Buy
02/26/20	DBS Vickers	Fu Yu	0.26	0.35	Buy	PER11.8x FY20
02/27/20	Lim & Tan	Fu Yu	0.25	0	Hold
02/28/20	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.25	0.32	Buy	DCF
03/16/20	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.2	0.32	Buy	DCF
04/01/20	DBS Vickers	Fu Yu	0.198	0.21	Hold
04/06/20	CIMB	Fu Yu	0.196	0.21	Add
04/07/20	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.199	0.32	Buy
04/13/20	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.215	0.28	Buy	DCF
05/13/20	DBS Vickers	Fu Yu	0.22	0.21	Hold	PER13.6x FY20
05/13/20	Lim & Tan	Fu Yu	0.22	0	Buy on weakness
05/14/20	CIMB	Fu Yu	0.22	0.21	Hold
05/15/20	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.22	0.25	Buy	PER12.4x FY20
06/16/20	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.23	0.28	Buy	DCF
06/24/20	Lim & Tan	Fu Yu	0.24	0	Buy
07/03/20	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.235	0.28	Buy

Stock calls for 27 July 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/27/20	Phillip	A-Reit	3.48	3.63	Accumlate	DDM
07/27/20	Kim Eng	AEM	3.51	4.04	Buy	PB4.8x FY20/21
07/27/20	DMG & Partners	Bumitama	0.495	0.6	Buy	PER13x FY21
07/27/20	Phillip	CapitaCommercial	1.72	1.909	Accumlate	DDM
07/27/20	UOB Kay Hian	Elite ComReit	0.695	0.88	Buy	DDM
07/27/20	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.39	1.45	Neutral	PER14x FY21
07/27/20	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.39	2.69	Accumlate	DDM
07/27/20	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.39	2.9	Buy	DDM
07/27/20	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.39	2.16	Neutral	DDM
07/27/20	CIMB	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.39	2.78	Add
07/27/20	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.39	2.45	Hold
07/27/20	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	5.71	0	Buy on weakness
07/27/20	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Commercial	1.88	2.35	Buy
07/27/20	Kim Eng	Mapletree Industrial	3.16	3.3	Buy
07/27/20	Lim & Tan	OUE Commercial	0.395	0	Buy on weakness
07/27/20	OCBC	Suntec Reit	1.39	1.57	Buy

Another constellation is aligning and a big financial crisis is brewing this time. - Part 6

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/25/us/hanna-storm-texas.html

The US typhoon season has started and will last till November 2020.  We did this to ourselves because we created global warming which changed the climate.  Serious floodings have occurred in China, Japan, India, Nepal. South Korea and Russia.  I expect the US to suffer the same fate too.  All these will cause high food inflation as farms are being destroyed.

We did warn you that the financial crisis constellation is aligning below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/another-constellation-is-aligning-and_75.html

With a stronger US typhoon season this year and the COVID outbreak, the financial tsunami will become inevitable due to the double whammy.  It is a matter of when and not if now.

Sit tight and brace yourself this time!  Remember that we warned you much earlier than others.

Baltic dry index - 1317

Today, Friday, July 24 2020, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 71 points, reaching 1317 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

======================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 946

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Frencken - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.66	0.8	Buy
08/13/19	CIMB	Frencken	0.66	0.9	Add
08/13/19	DMG & Partners	Frencken	0.66	0.82	Buy	DCF
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.66	0.8	Buy	PER8.5x
08/22/19	CIMB	Frencken	0.73	0.95	Add
08/22/19	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.73	0.81	Neutral	PER10x FY20
09/11/19	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.675	0.81	outperform	PER10x FY20
10/08/19	DMG & Partners	Frencken	0.675	0.82	Buy
11/07/19	CIMB	Frencken	0.72	0.94	Add	PER10x FY20
11/07/19	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.72	0.93	outperform	PER10x FY20
11/07/19	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.72	0.95	Buy	PER9x FY20
11/11/19	DMG & Partners	Frencken	0.76	0.82	Buy	DCF
11/18/19	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.92	0.93	Neutral	PER10x FY20
11/29/19	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.905	1.06	Buy	PER10x FY20
12/02/19	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.89	0.93	outperform	PER10x FY20
12/10/19	DMG & Partners	Frencken	0.94	0.92	Neutral	DCF
01/24/20	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.91	1.06	Buy	PER10x FY20
02/28/20	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.865	1.06	Buy	PER10x FY20
02/28/20	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.865	1.01	outperform
03/02/20	CIMB	Frencken	0.83	1.06	Add
03/09/20	DMG & Partners	Frencken	0.83	1.05	Buy	DCF
03/10/20	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.75	1.01	outperform	PER10x FY20
04/02/20	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.565	0.74	Buy
04/15/20	DMG & Partners	Frencken	0.71	0.9	Buy	DCF
05/15/20	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.82	0.92	Buy	PER10.4x FY20
06/02/20	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.81	1.01	outperform	PER10x FY20
06/22/20	UOB Kay Hian	Frencken	0.86	1.15	Buy
07/01/20	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.88	1.02	Buy	PER10.4x FY21
07/03/20	DMG & Partners	Frencken	0.91	0.9	Buy
07/13/20	Kim Eng	Frencken	0.915	1.2	Buy	Roe-g/Coe-g, PB1.6x FY20

Frasers Property - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
11/18/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.82	2.05	Buy	RNAV (40% discount)
05/14/20	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.19	1.7	Buy	RNAV (50% discount)
05/14/20	CIMB	Frasers Property	1.19	1.7	Add	RNAV (45% discount)

Frasers Logistics - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/04/19	OCBC	Frasers Logistics	1.23	1.2	Hold
07/04/19	Lim & Tan	Frasers Logistics	1.23	0	Hold
07/04/19	CIMB	Frasers Logistics	1.23	1.25	Hold
08/21/19	CIMB	Frasers Logistics	1.2	1.27	Add
08/21/19	OCBC	Frasers Logistics	1.2	1.22	Hold
11/06/19	Lim & Tan	Frasers Logistics	1.25	0	Hold
11/07/19	OCBC	Frasers Logistics	1.26	1.28	Hold
11/07/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Logistics	1.26	1.4	Buy	DCF
11/07/19	CIMB	Frasers Logistics	1.26	1.31	Add
12/03/19	CIMB	Frasers Logistics	1.24	1.31	Add
02/10/20	OCBC	Frasers Logistics	1.27	1.37	Hold
02/10/20	CIMB	Frasers Logistics	1.27	1.32	Add
05/04/20	CIMB	Frasers Logistics	1.06	1.3	Add
06/02/20	DBS Vickers	Frasers Logistics	1.15	1.4	Buy
07/03/20	DBS Vickers	Frasers Logistics	1.21	1.4	Buy
07/14/20	CIMB	Frasers Logistics	1.23	1.43	Add	DDM

Stock calls for 24 July 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/24/20	CIMB	A-Reit	3.43	3.12	Hold
07/24/20	Jefferies	A-Reit	3.43	3.8	Buy
07/24/20	DBS Vickers	A-Reit	3.43	4	Buy	DCF
07/24/20	Kim Eng	A-Reit	3.43	3.7	Buy	DDM
07/24/20	OCBC	A-Reit	3.43	3.92	Buy
07/24/20	UOB Kay Hian	A-Reit	3.43	3.65	Buy
07/24/20	Amfrasers	AEM	3.68	4.24	Outperform
07/24/20	DBS Vickers	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.23	1.4	Buy	DCF
07/24/20	CIMB	CapitaCommercial	1.76	1.98	Add	DDM
07/24/20	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.76	1.66	Hold	Buy @ $1.50
07/24/20	Phillip	Capitamall Trust	2.03	2.33	Buy	DDM
07/24/20	Kim Eng	Capitamall Trust	2.03	2.35	Buy
07/24/20	CIMB	Elite ComReit	0.695	0.761	Add	DDM
07/24/20	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	1.74	2.35	Buy	DDM
07/24/20	DMG & Partners	Keppel Pacific	0.715	0.8	Buy	DDM

The latest US unemployment data is a fudge. - Part 3

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/covid-19-us-jobless-claims-rise-to-1-42-million-amid-surge-12958166

We had stated in June 2020 that the US unemployment figure was fudged by the US government and this jobless claim had proven us right.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/06/the-latest-us-unemployment-data-is.html

What’s my take on the possible US-China military confrontation?

Trump has increased the US-China tension recently by expelling China consulate in Houston after the US military exercise in South China Sea. Consequently, China will retaliate by expelling one US consulate in China too.

As for the US-China military confrontation, I think it is unlikely to happen after observing the recent US military exercise. Why? This was because the US military exercise excluded the military scenario of China using its DF missiles against the US. This should be a compulsory military scenario because the DF missiles can destroy a US carrier and also the military base in Guam.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dongfeng_(missile)

I anticipate that China will be using DF21D and DF17 to destroy the US aircraft carriers and destroyers to make the US stay away from South China Sea while DF26 will be used to destroy the military base in Guam. The latest US military exercise excluded all these scenarios because the US was still conducting the military exercise in South China Sea. The US military exercise only proved to be a farce without any real intention to have a military confrontation with China. Trump is truly a showman!

The latest Pentagon simulations also showed that the US would lose the war in South China Sea.

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/americas/1589788329-us-would-lose-all-out-war-against-china-in-the-pacific-pentagon-simulation-shows

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1181080/South-China-Sea-World-War-3-news-Beijing-US-naval-war-simulation-Kyle-Mizokami

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/

If the US insists on going to a war with China, this war will end once China sinks a US aircraft carrier because this will make the other aircraft carrier stay away from South China Sea. In a nutshell, China will try to end this war by sinking a US aircraft carrier rather than to destroy the military base in Guam so that the war won’t escalate further since both countries have nuclear weapons.

Frasers Hospitality Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/12/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.72	0.77	Hold	DCF
10/09/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.715	0.77	Hold
10/31/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.735	0.78	Hold	DCF
11/01/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.735	0.8	Buy	DDM
01/28/20	DBS Vickers	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.715	0.78	Hold	DCF
02/17/20	Kim Eng	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.69	0.8	Buy
04/21/20	DBS Vickers	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.5	0.65	Buy
05/12/20	DBS Vickers	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.475	0.65	Buy	PB0.9x
07/17/20	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.47	0.58	Buy	DDM

Frasers Commercial Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.68	1.65	Neutral
07/12/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.65	1.7	Hold	DCF
07/22/19	OCBC	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.64	1.7	Hold
10/04/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.6	1.7	Hold	DCF
10/23/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.64	1.65	Neutral	DDM
10/24/19	OCBC	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.65	1.76	Hold
10/24/19	CIMB	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.65	1.71	Add	DDM
12/03/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.71	1.68	Take Profit	PB1.05x
12/03/19	CIMB	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.71	1.71	Add