MM2 Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/22/21	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.083	0.089	Hold	Sum of parts
04/28/21	UOB Kay Hian	MM2 Asia	0.073	0.098	Buy	Sum of parts
05/31/21	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.062	0.067	Hold	Sum of parts, PER10x FY22
06/07/21	UOB Kay Hian	MM2 Asia	0.068	0.095	Buy	Sum of parts
08/31/21	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.057	0.067	Buy	Sum of parts, PER10x FY22
02/14/22	UOB Kay Hian	MM2 Asia	0.05	0.115	Buy	Sum of parts

Stock calls for 18 April 2022

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/18/22	Kim Eng	DBS	33.48	41.82	Buy
04/18/22	Lim & Tan	Frencken	1.56	2.16	Buy
04/18/22	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.83	14.04	Hold
04/18/22	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	2.9	3.59	Buy	PER13.6x
04/18/22	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	5.46	4.8	Hold
04/18/22	UOB Kay Hian	Suntec Reit	1.79	1.88	Buy	DDM
04/18/22	Kim Eng	UOB	30.76	36.69	Buy

Singapore Nodx increased by 7.7% (yoy) in March 2022.

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/singapore-economy/singapores-march-nodx-eases-further-77-growth

Year on year changes (YOY):

March 2022: 7.7%

February 2022: 9.5%

January 2022: 17.6%

December 2021: 18.4%

November 2021: 24.2%

October 2021: 17.9%

September 2021: 12.3%

August 2021: 2.7%

July 2021: 12.7%

June 2021: 15.9%

May 2021: 8.8%

April 2021: 6%

March 2021: 12.1%

February 2021: 4.2%

January 2021: 12.8%

December 2020: 6.8%

November 2020: -4.9%

October 2020: -3.1%

September 2020: 5.9%

August 2020: 7.7%

July 2020: 6%

June 2020: 16.1% (Revised to 13.9%)

May 2020: -4.6%

April 2020: 9.7%

March 2020: 17.6%

February 2020: 3% (Revised to 3.1%)

January 2020: - 3.3%

December 2019: 2.4%

November 2019: - 5.9%

October 2019: - 12.3%

September 2019: -8.1%

August 2019: - 8.9%

July 2019: -11.2%

June 2019: -17.3%

May 2019: -15.9%

April 2019: -10%

March 2019: -11.7%

February 2019: 4.9%

January 2019: -10.1%

December 2018: -8.5%

November 2018: -2.6%

October 2018: 8.3%

September 2018: 8.3%

August 2018: 5%

July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)

June 2018: 1.1%

May 2018: 15.5%

April 2018: 11.8%

March 2018: -2.7%

February 2018: -5.9%

January 2018: 13%

December 2017: 3.1%

November 2017: 9.1%

October 2017: 20.9%

September 2017: -1.1%

August 2017: 16.7%

July 2017: 8.5%

June 2017: 8.2%

May 2017: -1.2%

Apr 2017: -0.7%

Mar 2017: 16.5%

Feb 2017: 21.1%

Baltic dry index - 2137

 

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count (weekly) - 693

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

President Biden will lose his mid-term election if it is held now!

 The latest Biden's approval rating had dropped to 38%!

President Biden will lose his mid-term election in November 2022 if his approval rating doesn't improve by then.

What are the top issues for the average American?

The top issue is the cost of living which means Biden has to rein in the current sky-high US inflation in order to salvage his low approval rating.  Therefore, Biden has to get the US Fed to take tough actions to reduce the elevated inflation but he has to sacrifice the US economy for the trade-off.  Consequently, the stock market will suffer because of the declining economy due to the FED's QT (quantitative tapering).

Former treasury secretary (Larry Summer) is warning about US recession again!

 
This is the 2nd time that Larry Summer is warning about the US recession in such a short period and this shows the great concern he has for the US economy.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2022/04/did-we-spook-us-heres-our-explanation.html

Larry Summer warned about the US recession on 6 April 2022.

Let's look at some main street statistics to verify his concern.

Sectorial growth:

Some sectors in the US are starting to show diminishing and negative growth.  For example, the recent US bank earnings results had plunged.  However, the most important sector is transportation, particularly truckers, because the truckers are primarily used to transport physical goods in the US.

The above chart is showing truck and auto sales which means there is no new demand because the US economy is weak.

The US FED had indicated that it would sell its FED assets to reduce excessive liquidity in the financial market.  The chart below is showing that liquidity affects shipping and freight activities.

 a

We had explained the FED's impact on the real economy (liquidity) below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2022/04/whats-real-impact-on-us-economy-if-us.html

US retail sales plunged again!

 US retail sales (month-on-month): 0.5%

US retail sales (year-on-year): 6.9%

Although the US retail sales had plunged from the previous month (Feb), it was still growing on a monthly basis.  However, this monthly growth was just a feint because of the nominal calculation.

Let me illustrate this with a simple calculation.

Retail sales = Price x Volume

Retail sales = $1 x 1000 = $1000

Let's assume the price increases 20% because of inflation and the sales volume drops 10%.

Retail sales = $1.20 x 900 = $1080

We can see from the aforesaid example that the retail sales figure increases to $1080 (8% increment) despite the sales volume dropping 10%.  In conclusion, if the price increase is much higher than the decline in sales volume, the retail sales figure will still grow.  We believe this is what is happening in the US now because the PMI is showing a significant decline in new orders.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2022/04/us-ism-mpi-decreased-to-571-in-march.html

Micro-Mechanics - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/01/21	Lim & Tan	Micro-Mechanics	3.64	0	Hold
02/02/21	UOB Kay Hian	Micro-Mechanics	3.75	2.87	Sell
02/08/21	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	3.58	3.35	Neutral	PER21x FY21, Ex-cash
05/03/21	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	3.33	3.02	Neutral	PER21x FY21, Ex-cash
09/30/21	Lim & Tan	Micro-Mechanics	3.19	0	High-Risk
11/01/21	Lim & Tan	Micro-Mechanics	3.31	0	Hold
12/07/21	DBS Vickers	Micro-Mechanics	3.17	4.05	Buy

Mermaid - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/07/22	Amfrasers	Mermaid	0.091	0.084	Buy

Metro - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/25/21	Lim & Tan	Metro	0.74	0	Accumulate