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Tuesday, April 12, 2022

What's the real impact on the US economy if the US FED were to reduce its assets by US$95B every month?

The US FED had indicated that it might reduce its assets by US$95B on a monthly basis which would amount to US$1.1T per year to contain its sky-high inflation.

How would this impact the real US economy?

We will need to understand how the liquidity of money will affect the economic activities in the US first.  The M2 money supply will be reduced when the US FED is selling its assets because it is draining money out of the US financial market.  When the M2 money supply is reduced, it will also cause a reduction in economic activities in the real economy.  Therefore, we will have to look at the M2 money supply multiplier effect to determine the real impact (see the chart below).


The M2/Monetary Base chart is showing that for every dollar being injected into the monetary base, it will cause the M2 money supply to increase by 3.6x and vice versa.

If the FED is reducing its assets by $1.1T per year, it is causing M2 to reduce by US$3.96T per year which is 18% (3.96/22) of the US GDP.  Consequently, the US economic activities will be greatly reduced because of a liquidity squeeze.

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