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Tuesday, October 24, 2017

China is really a high technology country.

Just take a look at how the traffic police do its work compared to SG.

No wonder the China people are laughing at SG for being so outdated and low-tech.

Monday, October 23, 2017

Italy is on the verge of breaking up after Spain.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-politics-referendum/italian-regions-vote-in-favor-of-autonomy-in-shadow-of-catalonia-crisis-idUSKBN1CR0EY

The domino effect is happening.  Some parts of Italy also want to gain independence after Catalan's independence vote.

If Europe allows Catalan's independence, there won't be any reason to stop others from following suit.  Catalan will be kicked out of Europe after independence and has to pay high taxes for its goods and services.  No FTA for Catalan!

Singapore stock calls for 23 October 2017


Abe won the Japan election on Sunday.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-apos-leader-just-won-042200543.html

He won because his opposition was too weak but Abe's support was just as weak as before.  Nothing much changes because abenomics policies don't work anymore.  Abe prefers to focus on the pacifist constitution reforms instead of the economic reforms.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-election/japans-abe-to-push-pacifist-constitution-reform-after-strong-election-win-idUSKBN1CS0C3

Abe wants to have the prerogative to start a war!

Noble will report a loss of $1.2B in Q3.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/noble-group-sell-oil-liquids-business-vitol-580-001536214--finance.html

Q2 2017 = $1.75B loss
Q3 2017 = $1.2B loss

How long do you think Noble can last after losing close to $3B in just 2 quarters?

The cash proceeds from this sale will be $580M which are still much lesser than its debt of more than $3B.

Noble is burning cash pretty fast!

Sunday, October 22, 2017

The truth behind Li Ka Shing's divestment in China.

Why did Li Ka Shing cash out of China?

Li Ka Shing was trying to avoid being persecuted by Xi Jinping for bribery in China and had no choice but to cash out of China.  Li Ka Shing's divestment was not due to any loss of confidence in China economic growth as China was still growing pretty well and the property market was still on an upward trend after his divestment.

Li Ka Shing started to do very well in the property developments in China after getting to know Jiang Zemin whilst Jiang was still in power.  Li Ka Shing transferred one of his subsidiaries' shares to Jiang's son in exchange for a property development in China and that exchange was the first major pot of gold for Jiang.  Thereafter, there were many exchanges of favours and monetary rewards between them including the expeditious capture of the Li son's kidnapper in China.

However, things began to change after Xi's ascension to power.  Xi embarked on his corruption-fighting campaign after becoming the leader and also wrestled with Jiang because Xi discovered Jiang's intention to get rid of Xi.  Jiang regretted his decision to support Xi because Xi was more upright than he thought.

Therefore, Li Ka Shing quickly cashed out of China and moved his HQ to London from HK.  As we all know, HK is part of China and Li Ka Shing doesn't want to take the risk.

Jiang Zemin lost the political battle to Xi Jinping.

A picture really tells a thousand words.

Despite Jiang's flailing condition, he had to attend Xi's presentation in the 19th Communist Party Congress to give the face to Xi.  In fact, Jiang could have excused himself from the Party Congress based on his poor health.

We still could tell that Jiang and Xi had an acrimonious relationship because Xi didn't bother to help Jiang to be seated.  Xi just stood there like a statue without displaying any kind gesture.

It's pretty obvious who won the political battle in China.

There is a rumour circulating that Jiang and Xi have reached a settlement in secrecy.  Xi will not persecute Jiang for corruption and also spare his 2 sons in exchange for the support in Xi's leadership continuation.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/07/political-battles-are-playing-out-in.html


Saturday, October 21, 2017

US fiscal deficit in 2017 - USD$666B

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-ends-fiscal-2017-with-666-billion-budget-deficit-2017-10-20


The US fiscal deficit in 2017 is already USD$666b.  Trump tax plan will add more to its current deficit.  However, the Senate only managed to pass the deficit of USD$1.5T in the next decade.  Therefore, Trump couldn't get his $5T tax plan fully implemented.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/09/trump-us5t-tax-plan-wont-get-passed.html

Baltic dry index - 1578

Today, Friday, October 20 2017, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 4 points, reaching 1578 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan Ocean.

US rig count - 913

HOUSTON (AP) - The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. declined by 15 this week to 913.
That's up from the 553 rigs that were active a year ago.
Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes said Friday that 736 rigs sought oil and 177 explored for natural gas this week.
Among major oil- and gas-producing states, Texas lost eight rigs, Alaska and Wyoming each declined by two and New Mexico and Utah each lost one.
Arkansas, California, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and West Virginia were unchanged.
The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May of 2016 at 404.
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Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco

Friday, October 20, 2017

UK has no prerogative to meddle in HK's affairs.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/oct/18/uk-summons-chinese-ambassador-after-british-activist-barred-benedict-rogers-barred-hong-kong#img-1

HK is part of China and UK has no prerogative to meddle in HK's affairs.  HK's autonomy is not defined by the UK.

How would UK feel if China demands the UK to give Scotland independence?

China GDP grew at 6.8% in Q3.

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/10/19/china-q3-gdp-grows-6pt8pct-on-year-in-line-with-forecasts/

This was quite close to what was estimated at 7%.

Let's hope that China can continue the momentum till the end of the year.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/10/chinas-economy-is-powering-ahead-with.html

Singapore stock calls for 20 October 2017


UOB has just marked down its O&G loans by 70-80%.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/uob-burdened-toxic-loans-o-044300079.html

This showed that our banks had been too optimistic about the recovery in the O&G industry in the past.

Let's see what DBS & OCBC will do.

We did warn about such optimism and the banks were not forthcoming with O&G loan exposures.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/08/singapore-banks-are-facing-strong.html

Thursday, October 19, 2017

ECB will start QE tapering in Jan 2018.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/ecb-gently-trim-asset-buys-delicate-messaging-act-063209193--business.html

ECB will start reducing bond purchases by $20B euros in Jan 2018.  The bond purchases will reduce from $60b to $40b in Jan 2018 and will continue to reduce gradually over time.

Spain to suspend Catalan autonomy.

https://in.news.yahoo.com/spain-moves-suspend-catalan-autonomy-094803353.html

https://qz.com/1106478/catalonia-independence-crisis-spain-plans-to-invoke-article-155-and-impose-direct-rule/?utm_source=YPL&yptr=yahoo

The Spanish move will definitely spark more instabilities in Catalan and the Spain stock market.

Singapore stock calls for 19 October 2017


HNA to delist CWT from SGX after Nov 2.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/cwt-to-be-delisted-after-nov-2-as-hnas-control-crosses-90

Goodbye CWT!

Another client has left SGX. Sigh!

SGX doesn't understand the capital market!

Why do I say that?

Just look at the flopped collaborative agreements in the past.

SGX-CLOB failed!
SGX-ASX failed!
SGX-TWSE failed!
SGX-ASEAN failed!

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/asean-trading-linkage-quietly-shuts-down

The SGX has just signed another collaborative agreement with Nasdaq.  Needless to say, it will flop too because no company will want to list on SGX when it can list on Nasdaq.  This win-lose collaboration will benefit Nasdaq more than SGX.

https://www.thestreet.com/story/14347895/1/nasdaq-singapore-s-sgx-announce-agreement.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo

SGX just doesn't understand the capital market and stock trading exchange well enough.  It removed and reinstated the lunch break, kept changing the bid/sell spreads, etc.  No wonder SGX is losing its listed clients more than it is attracting the IPOs.