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Wednesday, July 4, 2018

The US-China trade war is spreading to more industries.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/micron-chip-sales-banned-china-161130942.html

The semiconductor industry is involved in the trade war now.  Micron Tech went belly up under the helm of Ho Ching and was sold off at a huge loss before Ho Ching went to become Chartered Semiconductor CEO.  Chartered Semiconductor also faced the same fate under Ho Ching.

Thereafter, Micron Tech was brought alive under the new management.  However, it is facing a dire situation now because of the trade war as China's market constitutes 50% of its sales.  Without China, Micron Tech will go belly up again.

The US is alienating itself in WTO.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/over-40-countries-object-wto-182120367.html

More than 40 countries are against US car tariffs and will take retaliatory actions which will put about US$300b of US goods in jeopardy.

US allies are slowly turning into foes in the trade war.

Tuesday, July 3, 2018

SharebikeSG shuts down in Singapore after oBike.

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/sharebikesg-exits-spore-3rd-bike-sharing-operator-shut-past-month

This is not surprising as this business model needs high riding volume to break even.  Please read our previous postings regarding the bike sharing model.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/06/another-bike-sharing-company-obike-has.html

Nam Cheong - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/01/17 DBS Vickers Nam Cheong 0.055 0.04 Fully Valued PB0.2x
07/20/17 Lim & Tan Nam Cheong 0.021 0 Avoid

Moya Asia - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
09/04/17 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.118 0.17 Buy DCF, PER13.8x FY18
11/14/17 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.101 0.17 Buy DCF
01/24/18 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.098 0.17 Buy
02/09/18 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.091 0.17 Buy DCF
03/02/18 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.091 0.15 Buy DCF, PER15x FY18
04/09/18 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.099 0.15 Buy DCF
05/02/18 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.1 0.15 Buy DCF
06/05/18 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.087 0.14 Buy DCF

MM2 Asia - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/11/17 DBS Vickers MM2 Asia 0.49 0.56 Buy
04/07/17 CIMB MM2 Asia 0.5 0.6 Add Sum of parts, PER22.6x FY18
04/13/17 DBS Vickers MM2 Asia 0.5 0.63 Buy Sum of parts
05/23/17 DBS Vickers MM2 Asia 0.575 0.63 Buy Sum of parts
05/24/17 DBS Vickers MM2 Asia 0.585 0.7 Buy Sum of parts
05/25/17 CIMB MM2 Asia 0.585 0.65 Add Sum of parts
06/14/17 CIMB MM2 Asia 0.62 0.72 Add Sum of parts
06/14/17 DBS Vickers MM2 Asia 0.62 0.7 Buy
07/20/17 DBS Vickers MM2 Asia 0.59 0.75 Buy Sum of parts
07/25/17 CIMB MM2 Asia 0.525 0.58 Hold Sum of parts
08/14/17 DBS Vickers MM2 Asia 0.465 0.6 Buy Sum of parts
08/17/17 CIMB MM2 Asia 0.475 0.58 Add Sum of parts
11/02/17 DBS Vickers MM2 Asia 0.58 0.73 Buy Sum of parts
11/06/17 CIMB MM2 Asia 0.55 0.76 Add Sum of parts
12/20/17 CIMB MM2 Asia 0.52 0.76 Add
01/05/18 DBS Vickers MM2 Asia 0.545 0.73 Buy
02/07/18 CIMB MM2 Asia 0.49 0.76 Add
02/08/18 DBS Vickers MM2 Asia 0.495 0.75 Buy Sum of parts
03/05/18 CIMB MM2 Asia 0.47 0.76 Add
03/15/18 CIMB MM2 Asia 0.505 0.74 Add Sum of parts
04/06/18 CIMB MM2 Asia 0.49 0.74 Add
04/23/18 Kim Eng MM2 Asia 0.495 0.56 Buy
05/30/18 DBS Vickers MM2 Asia 0.495 0.7 Buy Sum of parts
06/05/18 CIMB MM2 Asia 0.485 0.72 Add Sum of parts

Stock calls for 3 July 2018


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian A-Reit 2.61 3.05 Buy
07/03/18 DMG & Partners APAC Realty 0.785 1.35 Buy
07/03/18 DBS Vickers Bumitama 0.635 0.88 Buy DCF, PER13.7x FY19
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.63 2.11 Buy
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian Capitaland 3.14 4.3 Buy
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian Capitamall Trust 2.02 2.13 Hold
07/03/18 OCBC CapitaRetail China 1.51 1.64 Buy
07/03/18 DMG & Partners China Aviation Oil 1.5 1.8 Buy
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian City Developments 10.88 14.03 Buy
07/03/18 DMG & Partners City Developments 10.88 15 Buy
07/03/18 Amfrasers CNMC 0.27 0.38 Buy PER10x FY19
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian Comfortdelgro 2.26 2.43 Buy
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian DBS 26.38 30.15 Buy
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian DISA 0.009 0.013 Buy DCF
07/03/18 DBS Vickers First Resources 1.55 2 Buy DCF
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian Genting 1.21 1.38 Buy
07/03/18 DBS Vickers Genting 1.21 1.49 Buy
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.305 0.26 Sell
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian Hongkong Land 7.13 8.55 Not Rated
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian Hutchison Port 0.28 0.34 Not Rated
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian Jardine C&C 30.77 44.13 Not Rated
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian Jardine Matheson 63.2 65.72 Not Rated
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian Jardine Strategic 36.65 42.67 Not Rated
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian Keppel Corp 7.01 9 Buy
07/03/18 DBS Vickers Keppel Corp 7.01 10.2 Buy
07/03/18 DMG & Partners M1 1.59 1.63 Hold DCF
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.51 14.28 Buy
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian SATS 4.91 5.7 Buy
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Industries 2.72 3.6 Buy
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian SGX 7.14 8.14 Not Rated
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian SIA 10.42 11.9 Hold
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian Singtel 3.05 4.22 Buy
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian SPH 2.59 2.46 Hold
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian ST Engineering 3.27 4.1 Buy
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian Starhub 1.64 1.98 Hold
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian Thai Beverage 0.7 0.99 Buy
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian Venture 17.66 25 Buy
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian Wilmar 3.04 3.9 Buy
07/03/18 DBS Vickers Wilmar 3.04 3.5 Buy DCF
07/03/18 DBS Vickers Yangzijiang 0.885 1.82 Buy Sum of parts, PB1.25x
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian Yangzijiang 0.885 1.3 Buy

Monday, July 2, 2018

MIT - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
08/03/17 Kim Eng MIT 0.245 0.32 Not Rated PB1.6x
11/22/17 Lim & Tan MIT 0.245 0.32 Buy PER8x FY18
01/03/18 Lim & Tan MIT 0.26 0 Buy

Mindchamps - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/05/18 Amfrasers Mindchamps 0.74 0.86 Buy DCF, PER23.2x FY18
04/23/18 DMG & Partners Mindchamps 0.815 0.95 Buy EV/Ebitda19x & DCF
04/27/18 DMG & Partners Mindchamps 0.815 1 Buy EV/Ebitda19x & DCF
05/09/18 DMG & Partners Mindchamps 0.795 1 Buy EV/Ebitda19x & DCF
05/15/18 Amfrasers Mindchamps 0.78 0.86 Buy PER23.2x FY18

Midas - Stock calls


Date Analyst Code Company Last Target Call Percent Valuation
03/01/17 OCBC 5EN Midas 0.26 0.255 Hold -1.92 PB0.6x FY17
03/02/17 DBS Vickers 5EN Midas 0.245 0.36 Buy 46.94
04/10/17 DBS Vickers 5EN Midas 0.225 0.36 Buy 60.00
04/11/17 OCBC 5EN Midas 0.23 0.255 Hold 10.87
05/18/17 OCBC 5EN Midas 0.225 0.245 Hold 8.89 PB0.6x FY17
05/23/17 DBS Vickers 5EN Midas 0.225 0.36 Buy 60.00
08/16/17 OCBC 5EN Midas 0.215 0.225 Hold 4.65 PB0.5x FY17
08/16/17 DBS Vickers 5EN Midas 0.215 0.36 Buy 67.44 PB0.8x
11/14/17 OCBC 5EN Midas 0.215 0.225 Hold 4.65

Stock calls for 2 July 2018


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
07/02/18 Phillip CapitaCommercial 1.66 1.88 Accumulate DDM, PB0.97x
07/02/18 CIMB CapitaCommercial 1.66 1.9 Add DDM
07/02/18 OCBC CapitaCommercial 1.66 1.84 Hold
07/02/18 DBS Vickers CapitaCommercial 1.66 2.12 Buy
07/02/18 CIMB China Sunsine 1.55 1.87 Add PER9.8x CY19
07/02/18 phillip DBS 26.61 32.7 Accumulate
07/02/18 OCBC Frasers Commercial Trust 1.38 1.53 Buy
07/02/18 DBS Vickers Netlink 0.74 0.87 Buy DCF
07/02/18 phillip OCBC 11.64 14.9 Accumulate
07/02/18 Kim Eng Singapore Post 1.26 1.5 Buy DCF
07/02/18 phillip UOB 26.76 31.7 Accumulate

Sunday, July 1, 2018

Why did Mad Dog Mattis become so docile in China?

General Mattis is not called Mad Dog Mattis for no reason.  He was a very aggressive military man but he became very docile during his recent visit to China.

Why? What happened to him?

I would attribute his recent docile behaviour in China to a recent China missile exercise video which was released by China prior to his arrival.  As a military veteran, he knew and understood what he was watching.

This missile video was released by China prior to his arrival and I believed this video shocked him.

DF-10A has an effective range of 1500km and this can keep US aircraft carriers at bay which will render any encroachment on China ineffective.  A DF-10A can destroy a building completely in the video.  Moreover, DF-10A can carry a 500kg nuclear warhead.  DF-16 has an even longer range and can push any US carrier further away from China coastlines.

Saturday, June 30, 2018

Canada is the latest country to hit back at Trump.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/canada-hits-back-on-us-tariffs--mnuchin-denies-trump-wants-to-quit-wto-10485368

Trump is digging his own grave now.

Trump will be the first to blink in this trade was as he has to deal with a November election.

We just need to prolong the trade war and Trump will cave in.

Another bike sharing company, obike, has folded in Singapore.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/obike-closure-singapore-bike-sharing-operator-bad-business-idea-10482320

We had stated in 2017 that this bike sharing business concept was flawed but VCs continued to invest in such businesses.

This shows that VCs do not know how to evaluate businesses at all as there are precursory signs of such businesses will flop.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/06/bike-sharing-business-concept-is-not.html

Baltic dry index - 1385

Today, Friday, June 29 2018, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 56 points, reaching 1385 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan Ocean

US rig count - 1047

HOUSTON, June 29 (Xinhua) -- The number of active drilling rigs in the United States fell by five this week to 1,047, but still 107 more than that this time last year, showed weekly data collected by Baker Hughes released Friday.
The Houston-based oilfield services company Baker Hughes reported that the number of oil rigs operating in the United States fell by four while those seeking natural gas dropped by one, driving the overall rig count down to 1,047.
There are now 858 rigs drilling for oil with more than half of them - 474 - situated in the Permian Basin region of West Texas and New Mexico. There are exactly 187 gas-seeking rigs and two miscellaneous rigs.
Baker Hughes reported a fall of seven active rigs in the previous week.
Oil prices were sluggish for most of June, although the prices have shown an upswing starting last Friday as OPEC reached a deal for only modest oil production hikes.
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Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco

Friday, June 29, 2018

Micro-Mechanics - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
09/22/17 Phillip Micro-Mechanics 1.545 2 Buy PER15x FY18
10/31/17 Phillip Micro-Mechanics 2.03 2.5 Buy PER16x FY18
01/31/18 Phillip Micro-Mechanics 2.35 2.5 Accumulate
05/02/18 Phillip Micro-Mechanics 1.82 2.3 Buy PER17x FY18

Metro - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/30/17 Lim & Tan Metro 1.17 0 Hold
05/25/18 Lim & Tan Metro 1.17 0 Hold

Mermaid Maritime - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/03/17 CIMB Mermaid Maritime 0.15 0.24 Add PB0.65x CY17
01/09/17 DBS Vickers Mermaid Maritime 0.195 0.24 Buy PB0.7x FY17
03/02/17 CIMB Mermaid Maritime 0.2 0.28 Add PB0.77x FY17
03/02/17 DBS Vickers Mermaid Maritime 0.2 0.25 Buy DCF & PER0.7x
05/17/17 CIMB Mermaid Maritime 0.18 0.19 Hold PB0.56x FY17
05/17/17 DBS Vickers Mermaid Maritime 0.18 0.2 Hold Sum of parts
08/18/17 CIMB Mermaid Maritime 0.143 0.14 Reduce PB0.4x FY17
08/18/17 DBS Vickers Mermaid Maritime 0.143 0.14 Hold PB0.6x
09/14/17 CIMB Mermaid Maritime 0.126 0.14 Reduce
11/16/17 CIMB Mermaid Maritime 0.138 0.14 Reduce PB0.4x CY17
11/17/17 DBS Vickers Mermaid Maritime 0.138 0.14 Hold PB0.6x
01/12/18 CIMB Mermaid Maritime 0.139 0.14 Hold PB0.43x CY18
01/23/18 DBS Vickers Mermaid Maritime 0.155 0.14 Hold
03/01/18 CIMB Mermaid Maritime 0.152 0.16 Hold PB0.48x CY18
03/13/18 DBS Vickers Mermaid Maritime 0.15 0.14 Hold Sum of parts
05/18/18 DBS Vickers Mermaid Maritime 0.138 0.13 Hold PB0.6x

Stock calls for 29 June 2018


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/29/18 DMG & Partners DBS 26.49 30.3 Buy GGM, PB1.47x FY19
06/29/18 Lim & Tan Del Monte 0.18 0 Neutral
06/29/18 SAC HLH 0.163 0.51 Buy RNAV (40% discount), PB0.8x FY18
06/29/18 DMG & Partners Raffles Medical 1.01 1.02 Neutral DCF
06/29/18 DBS Vickers SPH Reit 0.99 1.07 Buy DCF
06/29/18 CIMB Yoma 0.365 0.62 Not Rated Bloomberg consensus
06/28/18 DBS Vickers Capitaland 3.13 4.35 Buy
06/28/18 DMG & Partners Capitaland 3.13 4.25 Buy RNAV (15% discount)
06/28/18 UOB Kay Hian Chip Eng Seng 0.84 1.38 Buy
06/28/18 OCBC Sheng Siong 1.05 1.12 Buy
06/28/18 DBS Vickers ST Engineering 3.29 4.1 Buy
06/28/18 NRA Trendlines 0.119 0.225 Overweight
06/28/18 DBS Vickers UOB 26.36 33.2 Buy
06/28/18 CIMB Y Venture 0.445 0.62 Add PER30x CY19