Stock calls for 5 March 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/05/19	DMG & Partners	Amara	0.46	0.88	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
03/05/19	OCBC	ART	1.14	1.25	Buy
03/05/19	phillip	China Aviation Oil	1.3	1.67	Buy	PER11.5x FY19
03/05/19	Amfrasers	CSE Global	0.505	0.58	Buy
03/05/19	CIMB	First Resources	1.7	2.12	Add
03/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	Japfa	0.705	0.98	Buy	Sum of parts, PER10.7x FY19
03/05/19	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.705	0.8	Buy
03/05/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.077	0.11	Buy	DCF
03/05/19	Amfrasers	Sheng Siong	1.09	1.24	Buy
03/05/19	CIMB	Sunningdale	1.4	1.38	Reduce	PB0.69x FY19

India pays a high price to get cozy with the USA.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-plans-end-indias-preferential-trade-treatment-000258315--finance.html

This is not the first time that the USA backstabbed India and it won't be the last.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/03/india-has-to-pay-much-higher-price-to.html

Let's see how much the India will tolerate before it realizes the USA is a non-trustworthy partner.

China ups its ante against Canada.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-blocks-canola-shipments-canadas-richardson-customs-document-071841479--finance.html

Let's get the record straight in the first place.

Huawei Cfo was arrested in Canada during transit to Mexico.  She was accused of infringing USA's sanction against Iran via banking fraud.  However, the USA sanction is not a UN sanction.

First of all, if the banking fraud did occur, it happened in HK HSBC bank.  Therefore, Huawei Cfo contravened HK banking rules but not US banking rules.  Furthermore, Huawei Cfo is not an American citizen and does not possess a US green card. Thus, she cannot and shouldn't be subjected to US laws in another country.

Huawei Cfo's arrest is no doubt a political issue and never a legal issue.  The US is just abusing its might against a weaker country.

Therefore, I support China this time!

Mindchamps - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/05/18	Amfrasers	Mindchamps	0.74	0.86	Buy	DCF, PER23.2x FY18
04/23/18	DMG & Partners	Mindchamps	0.815	0.95	Buy	EV/Ebitda19x & DCF
04/27/18	DMG & Partners	Mindchamps	0.815	1	Buy	EV/Ebitda19x & DCF
05/09/18	DMG & Partners	Mindchamps	0.795	1	Buy	EV/Ebitda19x & DCF
05/15/18	Amfrasers	Mindchamps	0.78	0.86	Buy	PER23.2x FY18
08/07/18	DMG & Partners	Mindchamps	0.67	1	Buy
08/14/18	Amfrasers	Mindchamps	0.705	0.86	Buy	DCF, PER22.6x FY18
08/21/18	DMG & Partners	Mindchamps	0.7	0.94	Buy
10/11/18	DMG & Partners	Mindchamps	0.62	0.94	Buy
11/12/18	DMG & Partners	Mindchamps	0.625	0.87	Buy	DCF & EV/Ebitda17x FY19

Micro-Mechanics - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/31/18	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	2.35	2.5	Accumulate
05/02/18	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.82	2.3	Buy	PER17x FY18
07/16/18	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.82	2.3	Buy
08/29/18	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.83	2.3	Buy	PER17x
11/01/18	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.8	2.05	Buy	PER16x FY19
01/30/19	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.67	1.7	Accumulate	PER15x FY19

Metro - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/25/18	Lim & Tan	Metro	1.17	0	Hold

Stock calls for 4 March 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/04/19	phillip	China Sunsine	1.26	1.55	Buy	FCFE
03/04/19	Kim Eng	Comfortdelgro	2.43	2.45	Hold	DCF
03/04/19	DMG & Partners	Dairy Farm	8.57	8.64	Neutral	DCF
03/04/19	DBS Vickers	Dairy Farm	8.57	8.44	Hold	Sum of parts
03/04/19	phillip	DBS	25.08	29	Buy
03/04/19	phillip	EC World Reit	0.76	0.85	Buy	DDM, PB0.84x FY19
03/04/19	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.72	1.6	Neutral	PER13x FY19
03/04/19	DBS Vickers	First Resources	1.72	1.97	Buy
03/04/19	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.58	0.69	Buy
03/04/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.112	0.17	Buy	DCF
03/04/19	Lim & Tan	Nera Telecom	0.285	0	Buy
03/04/19	phillip	OCBC	11.1	13.7	Buy
03/04/19	Lim & Tan	Pacific Century	0.385	0	Buy
03/04/19	phillip	Sheng Siong	1.09	1.3	Accumulate	PER25x
03/04/19	phillip	UOB	25	32.5	Buy
03/04/19	OCBC	Yangzijiang	1.44	1.44	Hold
03/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	Yangzijiang	1.44	1.39	Hold	Buy @ $1.25
03/04/19	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.44	1.82	buy	Sum of parts, PB1.1x

Newscasters will face retrenchments soon!

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/technology/china-xinhua-ai-robot-lifelike-female-news-anchor-11307696

The news broadcasting industry is being disrupted by AI robots now and China is the first to use AI robot for news broadcasts.

USA is gearing up for USD depreciation. - Part 2

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/trump-says-strong-dollar-hurting-u-competitiveness-184008692--business.html

Trump has stated publicly that he wants USD to depreciate.

We had already anticipated this USD depreciation in our previous post below.  We've nailed it!

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/02/usa-is-gearing-up-for-usd-depreciation.html

CNY vs HKD has an anomaly today.

HKD vs CNY

CNY vs HKD

The charts above show some anomaly which denotes an intervention in the FX market for HKD/CNY.  Maybe the China Central Bank is trying to remove the arbitrage opportunity by manipulating the currency.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/hong-kong-dollar-has-been-depreciating.html

Hong Kong Dollar has been depreciating! Why?

The HKD is depreciating and is approaching the limit of HKD$7.85 (intervention level).  This is stressing the HKMA to up its interest rates to stabilize the HKD and prevent capital outflow.

The one-month Hibor-Libor spread is widening to 151 basis points and also giving HKMA the stress to up its interest rates because HKD is pegged to USD.  This causes HKD to depreciate unless HKMA ups its interest rates.  However, the dovish FED stance is giving HKMA some breathing space not to hike its interest rates because the HK interest rates will affect the property sector tremendously.

The 1-month HKD Hibor is at 1.33% and the 1-month CNY Hibor is at 2.72% (see chart below).  This creates a huge arbitrage opportunity for investors to sell HKD for CNY to net a risk-free return of 1.39%.  How cool is that?  This is the primary reason for HKD depreciation.

Baltic dry index - 658

Today, Thursday, February 28 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 7 points, reaching 658 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

===================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean

US rig count - 1038

The rig count in the Permian Basin fell by seven this week, the latest count Friday by Baker Hughes shows, with 466 rigs active in the region. A year ago, 434 rigs were active in the region.

Nationally, the oil and gas rig count is down nine from last week at 1,038 rigs. A year ago, 981 rigs were active. The count shows that 843 rigs sought oil, down ten from the previous week, and 195 explored for natural gas, up one from the previous week.

The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May of 2016 at 404.

========================

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco

What is the main determinant cause of Singapore success? Water?

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/mahathir-believes-singapore-rapidly-developed-030901104.html

Mahathir believes that the main determinant cause of Singapore success is water.

However, Malaysia has more water than Singapore.  How come Malaysia is not as successful as Singapore when it has more water resources?  The exchange rate for MY:SG should be 1:3, not 3:1 if Mahathir is right about SG's success.

Mermaid Maritime - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Valuation
01/12/18	CIMB	Mermaid Maritime	0.139	0.14	PB0.43x CY18
01/23/18	DBS Vickers	Mermaid Maritime	0.155	0.14
03/01/18	CIMB	Mermaid Maritime	0.152	0.16	PB0.48x CY18
03/13/18	DBS Vickers	Mermaid Maritime	0.15	0.14	Sum of parts
05/18/18	DBS Vickers	Mermaid Maritime	0.138	0.13	PB0.6x
08/17/18	DBS Vickers	Mermaid Maritime	0.106	0.13	Sum of parts
08/20/18	CIMB	Mermaid Maritime	0.106	0.13
11/15/18	DBS Vickers	Mermaid Maritime	0.094	0.1	PB0.5x

Memtech - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Valuation
01/10/18	CIMB	Memtech	1.15	1.33	PER10x FY19
01/24/18	CLSA	Memtech	1.28	2	PEG0.45x, PER15x CY18
02/09/18	UOB Kay Hian	Memtech	1.29	1.43	PER11.6x FY18
03/05/18	Lim & Tan	Memtech	1.52	0
03/07/18	CIMB	Memtech	1.54	1.76	PER12x FY19
04/06/18	UOB Kay Hian	Memtech	1.58	1.5	PER12x FY18, Buy @ $1.35
04/26/18	Lim & Tan	Memtech	1.37	0
04/27/18	CIMB	Memtech	1.29	1.47	PER10x FY19
04/27/18	UOB Kay Hian	Memtech	1.29	1.32	PER10.6x FY18, Buy @ $1.18
06/26/18	CIMB	Memtech	1.13	1.47
08/14/18	CIMB	Memtech	1.12	1.43	PER10x FY19
08/14/18	UOB Kay Hian	Memtech	1.12	1.08
10/12/18	UOB Kay Hian	Memtech	0.85	0.95	PER9.8x FY18, Buy @ $0.75
11/09/18	CIMB	Memtech	0.745	1.1	PER8x FY19
11/09/18	Lim & Tan	Memtech	0.745	0
11/27/18	UOB Kay Hian	Memtech	0.79	0.91	PER9.8x FY18
12/24/18	Lim & Tan	Memtech	0.8	0
02/28/19	Lim & Tan	Memtech	1.03	0
02/28/19	CIMB	Memtech	1.03	1.08	PER8.5x FY20
03/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Memtech	0.985	1.33	PER11x FY19

Megachem - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Percent	Valuation
04/30/18	NRA	Megachem	0.385	0.51	32.47	DCF, PER14.7x FY18
06/26/18	SAC	Megachem	0.32	0.5	56.25	PER14.9x FY19
08/17/18	NRA	Megachem	0.32	0.51	59.38

Stock calls for 1 March 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/01/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.57	0.72	Buy	DCF
03/01/19	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.57	0.7	Buy	PER12x
03/01/19	Phillip	APTV	0.13	0.14	Accumulate
03/01/19	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.37	1.5	Neutral
03/01/19	DBS Vickers	China Aviation Oil	1.37	1.85	Buy	PER12x FY19
03/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	China Aviation Oil	1.37	1.25	Hold	PER8.4x FY19
03/01/19	phillip	CNMC	0.225	0.31	Buy	DCF
03/01/19	DMG & Partners	Delfi	1.45	1.68	Buy	DCF
03/01/19	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.71	2.03	Buy	PER17x
03/01/19	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.29	2.5	Buy
03/01/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.29	2.4	Buy	DCF
03/01/19	CIMB	Golden Agri	0.275	0.23	Reduce	Sum of parts (10% discount)
03/01/19	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.275	0.27	Hold
03/01/19	DBS Vickers	Hongkong Land	6.77	8.02	Buy
03/01/19	Kim Eng	IHH Healthcare	1.85	2.29	Buy	Sum of parts, Ringgit $6.90 target
03/01/19	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.2	0.19	Hold
03/01/19	CIMB	Japfa	0.765	0.9	Add	Sum of parts
03/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Memtech	0.985	1.33	Buy	PER11x FY19
03/01/19	CIMB	Silverlake	0.57	0.62	Add	Sum of parts, PER19x CY20
03/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sunningdale	1.56	1.3	Hold	PER11x FY19, Buy @ $1.20
03/01/19	Lim & Tan	Sunningdale	1.56	0	Hold
03/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sunpower	0.585	0.88	Buy	Sum of parts
03/01/19	CIMB	Yangzijiang	1.43	1.61	Add	Sum of parts
03/01/19	OCBC	Yanlord	1.39	1.75	Buy	PER5x
03/01/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.173	0.33	Add	PB0.7x FY19

Mahathir is bashing Singapore again!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/speak-against-singapore-water-agreement-102137041.html

How many times must we say this?

The water agreement is not a simple commercial agreement.  It was part of the separation agreement for MY-SG and was lodged with the UN.  Therefore, nobody can just change the water pact.

Under the water pact, Johor (JB) doesn't need to buy back the processed water but it is buying the full maximum quantity allowed by the water pact? Why? Why? Why?

This is because JB knows that SG is selling the processed water at a huge loss to JB.

Hot news! NTUC, Sheng Siong and Prime have signed 3-year contracts with Kaohsiung Mayor.

Kaohsiung mayor Han has just visited Singapore to promote Kaohsiung farm and fishery products.

He has just signed a 3-year contract with 3 supermarkets such as NTUC, Sheng Siong and Prime.  This guy is a potential Taiwan presidential candidate in 2020.  If he becomes the Taiwan president in 2020, Taiwan and Singapore relationship will get much closer.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/01/hot-news-ntuc-fairprice-will-sign-3.html