Food Empire - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/04/19	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.58	0.69	Buy
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.56	0.69	Buy

First Sponsor - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/22/19	DBS Vickers	First Sponsor	1.27	1.62	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)

First Resources - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.56	1.6	Hold
02/20/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.72	1.85	Hold	PER13x FY19, Buy @ $1.65
02/21/19	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.69	2.1	Buy
03/01/19	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.71	2.03	Buy	PER17x
03/04/19	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.72	1.6	Neutral	PER13x FY19
03/04/19	DBS Vickers	First Resources	1.72	1.97	Buy	DCF
03/05/19	CIMB	First Resources	1.7	2.12	Add
03/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.69	1.85	Hold	Buy @ $1.65
04/09/19	CIMB	First Resources	1.79	2.12	Add
04/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.85	1.85	Hold
05/06/19	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.82	2.03	Buy	PER17x FY19
05/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.79	1.85	Hold	PER13x FY19, Buy @ $1.65

Stock calls for 9 May 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/09/19	Kim Eng	AEM	1.05	1.4	Buy
05/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	CSE Global	0.485	0.62	Buy
05/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.79	1.85	Hold	PER13x FY19, Buy @ $1.65
05/09/19	DMG & Partners	Frencken	0.615	0.82	Buy	DCF
05/09/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.245	0.23	Neutral	DCF
05/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.75	0.95	Buy
05/09/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.82	0.87	Buy
05/09/19	OCBC	Roxy-Pacific	0.405	0.41	Hold
05/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Post	0.99	1.06	Hold	Buy @ $0.95
05/09/19	DBS Vickers	Singtel	3.11	3.55	Buy
05/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sunningdale	1.32	1.22	Hold	PER11x FY20, Buy @ $1.10
05/09/19	CIMB	Sunningdale	1.32	1.38	Hold	PB0.69x FY19

Bonitas Research: Best World is a fraud! - Part 2

REBUTTAL TO BEST WORLD’S CLARIFICATION ANNOUNCEMENT

On April 24, 2018 we published our investment opinion (the “Report”) on Best World International Ltd. (BB: BEST __ SGX: CGN) (“Best World” or the “Company”). On May 8, 2019, two weeks later, Best World issued a clarification announcement (the “Response”). Best World’s response is reminiscent of many companies we have identified in the past. They have chosen to hide behind their auditors for its reported financial performance and their lawyers for convoluted and misleading legal descriptions of its Chinese operations. Despite its length, Best World's Response fails to address the key issues raised in our Report.  We think its Response is littered with lies in an attempt to discredit our findings, which has only strengthened our belief that the Dora’s will not voluntarily disclose the truth. In our Rebuttal, we present additional evidence which corroborates our findings that Best World fabricated its 2017 reported sales to Changsha Best. Considering the abundance of factual, independently verifiable evidence including testimonials from Member Reps about Best World’s Direct-Selling China sales model, the Company blatantly lied in its response that it does not conduct direct selling in China.  The Company even surmises that the sudden influx of reviews on DR’s Secret online sales channels immediately after the Singapore Business Times article was because of “simply raised awareness” of its product and its brand to consumers.  Best World expects investors to believe that consumers became more aware of its DR’s Secret skin care products because the Singapore Business Times article was critical of its China operations. How does that make any sense? The Company continues to claim that its growth in China sales were “driven by underlying demand of the skin care products.” Another lie. How can any investor trust Best World after being told so many blatant lies? We stand by our opinion and the evidence presented in our Report that Best World is a fraud, that it fabricated its reported 2017 sales to Changsha Best, and that it currently operates a direct selling sales model in China. We have not been contacted by anyone yet, but in the event that we are mentioned in a defamation claim, we are ready with an exhaustive list of of internal discovery document requests for Best World which we expect will only corroborate publicly available findings. We encourage investors and regulators to replicate and confirm our findings to expedite the truth-gathering process. We remain short Best World’s stock. https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/bonitas-research-best-world-is-fraud.html The latest news is Best World is suing Bonitas Research now.

China's CPI has risen to 6-month high.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-factory-gate-inflation-hits-four-month-high-025321639--business.html

China CPI is at 2.5% in April, a 6-month high.

This is not unexpected as we've expected CPI to rise in China in our previous post.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/global-inflation-or-deflation.html

US-China trade tariffs will also contribute to higher CPI in the 2nd half of 2019 in the US & China.

We need to understand the chain of events in a real economy, starting with the CPI below.

CPI/PPI ----->> M1-M2 spread/3m-10y yield spread ----->> PMI ----->> GDP

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-has-flipped-and-fissures.html

First Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/16/19	phillip	First Reit	1.04	0.88	Neutral	DDM
01/17/19	Lim & Tan	First Reit	1.03	0	Neutral
01/18/19	OCBC	First Reit	1.01	0.97	Hold
01/18/19	CIMB	First Reit	1.01	1.2	Add	DDM
02/11/19	OCBC	First Reit	1.14	0.97	Sell
04/11/19	CIMB	First Reit	0.99	1.2	Add	DDM

Far East Hospitality - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/16/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.625	0.675	Buy
02/07/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.66	0.675	Buy
02/13/19	Lim & Tan	Far East Hospitality	0.64	0	Buy
02/14/19	DBS Vickers	Far East Hospitality	0.635	0.7	Buy	DCF
02/14/19	CIMB	Far East Hospitality	0.635	0.68	Add	DDM
02/14/19	Kim Eng	Far East Hospitality	0.635	0.75	Buy	DDM
02/14/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.635	0.68	Buy
04/15/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.685	0.68	Hold
04/26/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.66	0.67	Hold
04/26/19	DBS Vickers	Far East Hospitality	0.66	0.7	Buy
04/29/19	CIMB	Far East Hospitality	0.665	0.71	Add
04/29/19	Kim Eng	Far East Hospitality	0.665	0.8	Buy

Ezion - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/07/19	DBS Vickers	Ezion	0.05	0.06	Hold	PB0.3x FY19
03/11/19	DBS Vickers	Ezion	0.043	0.05	Hold	PER10x F20
04/05/19	DBS Vickers	Ezion	0.043	0.05	Hold	PB1.4x

Stock calls for 8 May 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/08/19	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	0.825	0.81	Neutral	Sum of parts
05/08/19	CIMB	Comfortdelgro	2.61	2.88	Add	DCF
05/08/19	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.72	8.41	Add	Sum of parts
05/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Overseas Edu	0.3	0.46	Buy	EV/Ebitda10.4x
05/08/19	Lim & Tan	Overseas Edu	0.3	0	Buy
05/08/19	OCBC	Singapore Post	1.01	1	Hold
05/08/19	CIMB	Singapore Post	1.01	1.17	Add	DCF
05/08/19	DBS Vickers	Singapore Post	1.01	0.96	Hold	DCF

ESR-Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/18/19	Lim & Tan	ESR-Reit	0.53	0	Hold
01/21/19	CIMB	ESR-Reit	0.53	0.62	Add	DDM
01/21/19	OCBC	ESR-Reit	0.53	0.575	Buy
01/22/19	DBS Vickers	ESR-Reit	0.53	0.59	Buy
02/12/19	DMG & Partners	ESR-Reit	0.515	0.61	Buy	DDM
03/07/19	CIMB	ESR-Reit	0.53	0.62	Add
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	ESR-Reit	0.53	0.61	Buy
04/10/19	OCBC	ESR-Reit	0.54	0.55	Hold
04/25/19	CIMB	ESR-Reit	0.51	0.6	Add	DDM
04/25/19	OCBC	ESR-Reit	0.51	0.565	Buy

EC World Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/09/19	DMG & Partners	EC World Reit	0.7	0.81	Buy
02/15/19	phillip	EC World Reit	0.745	0.82	Buy
02/22/19	DBS Vickers	EC World Reit	0.745	0.86	Buy	DCF
02/25/19	DMG & Partners	EC World Reit	0.755	0.84	Buy	DDM
03/04/19	phillip	EC World Reit	0.76	0.85	Buy	DDM, PB0.84x FY19
03/18/19	DMG & Partners	EC World Reit	0.77	0.84	Buy
05/07/19	DMG & Partners	EC World Reit	0.77	0.84	Buy

Duty Free - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/10/19	Lim & Tan	Duty Free	0.192	0	Accumulate

Stock calls for 7 May 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/07/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.555	0.72	Buy
05/07/19	DBS Vickers	Breadtalk	0.835	0.92	Hold
05/07/19	DMG & Partners	CSE Global	0.475	0.61	Buy	DCF, PER13.7x FY19
05/07/19	Lim & Tan	CSE Global	0.475	0	Buy
05/07/19	OCBC	DBS	26.53	27.5	Hold
05/07/19	DMG & Partners	Delfi	1.3	1.68	Buy	DCF, PER28x FY19
05/07/19	DMG & Partners	EC World Reit	0.77	0.84	Buy
05/07/19	CIMB	Frasers Property	1.85	2.08	Add
05/07/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.21	0.24	Buy	DCF
05/07/19	DMG & Partners	HRnetGroup	0.77	1.06	Buy	DCF
05/07/19	DBS Vickers	Koufu	0.77	0.8	Hold	PER17x FY19
05/07/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.825	0.92	Buy	DCF
05/07/19	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.61	0.65	Buy	DCF
05/07/19	DMG & Partners	Starhill	0.74	0.78	Buy	DDM
05/07/19	Lim & Tan	Sunningdale	1.35	0	Hold
05/07/19	DMG & Partners	UG Healthcare	0.18	0.32	Buy	PER10x FY20
05/07/19	OCBC	UOB	25.85	27.3	Hold

Do not subscribe to Luckin coffee ipo! Why?

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/consumer/gic-backed-luckin-coffee-seeks-to-raise-up-to-us510m-in-us-ipo

I've heard too many news about this coffee startup.

Do you know where does this startup source its coffee beans?
It sources its coffee beans from Taiwan which is not a coffee producing country and the coffee beans are not of good quality.  A real coffee company will source its coffee beans from coffee producing countries and not from Taiwan.  Why is this company sourcing coffee beans from Taiwan? I leave it to your imagination.

This coffee startup is burning cash like hell, just like the bike sharing business.  It has to offer discounts and deals just to sell its coffee.  Without these discounts and deals, it cannot sell at all.

The short-sellers will target and publish SELL reports on this coffee startup in the future because it has weak fundamentals and a flawed business concept.

Hopefully, GIC is able to get out of this company soon before it suffers from a great burnout.

How the China RRR cut will impact its economy?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-steers-credit-small-firms-034303771.html

The China RRR cut will release RMB$280b into the economy.

Let me offer a simple explanation of RRR.

The RRR is imposed on banks by the central bank to prevent liquidity and bankruptcy issues such as bank run.

When a bank takes a deposit of $100, it is a debt owed to the bank customer and the bank will pay the bank customer a deposit interest.  The bank will use the debt (deposit) for bank lending to earn a higher loan interest so that the bank can cover the deposit interest and earn a profit.  However, the central bank will not allow the bank to make a full loan of the deposit ($100) because it will create a liquidity risk.  Therefore, the central bank imposes a required reserve ratio (RRR) on the bank and limits the bank lending on its deposit.

For example:

If the RRR is 20%, the bank can only make a loan of $80 out of every $100 deposit.

If the bank pays a $2 interest on every $100 deposit, its cost of debt (deposit) is 2%.

When the RRR is 20% and the bank still pays a $2 interest, its cost of debt is 2.5% (2/80).  Therefore, the cost of debt for the bank increases with higher RRR.

When the RRR is lowered, the cost of debt is lowered too and the bank can earn a profit more easily with lower loan interest.

In conclusion, a lower RRR is meant to boost monetary supply and local consumption in the economy.  In other words, this is a QE policy.

France has done the right thing for its pedestrians.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/france-ban-e-scooters-pavements-september-090821006.html

Well done! France is doing the right thing.

E-scooters put pedestrians in danger on the pavements.

They ride recklessly at high speeds and don't give way to pedestrians on the pavements.  They are a nuisance as they expect pedestrians to give way to them by honking.

DISA - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/19/19	Amfrasers	DISA	0.003	0	Cease Coverage

Delfi - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Delfi	1.32	1.59	Buy
03/01/19	DMG & Partners	Delfi	1.45	1.68	Buy	DCF, PER28x FY19
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Delfi	1.3	1.68	Buy

DBS - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	DBS	23.69	29.8	Buy	GGM, PB1.54x FY19
01/03/19	CIMB	DBS	23.49	27	Hold	PER10.7x FY20
01/03/19	JP Morgan	DBS	23.49	29	Overweight
01/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	23.75	28.5	Buy
01/08/19	Jefferies	DBS	23.75	28.5	Buy
01/29/19	CIMB	DBS	24.22	29	Add	GGM, PB1.4x CY19
01/31/19	Kim Eng	DBS	23.94	30.18	Buy	DDM
02/01/19	phillip	DBS	23.92	29.02	Buy
02/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	24.33	28.5	Buy
02/12/19	Kim Eng	DBS	24.36	30.18	Buy
02/18/19	DMG & Partners	DBS	24.74	29.8	Buy
02/18/19	Lim & Tan	DBS	24.74	0	Buy
02/19/19	Jefferies	DBS	25.2	28.5	Buy
02/19/19	OCBC	DBS	25.2	29.31	Buy
02/19/19	DMG & Partners	DBS	25.2	28.8	Buy	GGM, PB1.5x FY19
02/19/19	phillip	DBS	25.2	29	Buy	GGM, PB1.5x FY19
02/19/19	Kim Eng	DBS	25.2	29.56	Buy	DDM
02/19/19	CIMB	DBS	25.2	29	Add	GGM
02/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	25.2	28.4	Buy
02/20/19	Macquarie	DBS	25.1	27	Neutral	PB
02/26/19	Amfrasers	DBS	25.18	27.7	Buy	RIM
03/04/19	phillip	DBS	25.08	29	Buy
03/07/19	Kim Eng	DBS	25.36	29.56	Buy
03/11/19	CIMB	DBS	25.06	29	Add
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	DBS	25.3	28.8	Buy	GGM, PB1.5x FY19
03/26/19	OCBC	DBS	25.12	29.31	Buy
04/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	25.23	28.4	Buy
04/02/19	phillip	DBS	25.59	29	Buy
04/10/19	DMG & Partners	DBS	27	29.6	Buy	PB1.43x FY20
04/11/19	CIMB	DBS	26.97	29	Add
04/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	27.4	30.3	Buy	GGM, PB1.57x FY19
04/22/19	Kim Eng	DBS	27.4	29.56	Buy
04/29/19	Lim & Tan	DBS	27.41	0	Buy
04/30/19	Macquarie	DBS	28.4	27	Neutral
04/30/19	phillip	DBS	28.4	29	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.5x FY19
04/30/19	OCBC	DBS	28.4	29.18	Hold	Buy @ $27.50 or lower
04/30/19	CIMB	DBS	28.4	30	Add	GGM, PB1.54x
04/30/19	DMG & Partners	DBS	28.4	30.8	Buy	PB1.5x FY20
04/30/19	Lim & Tan	DBS	28.4	30	Hold
05/02/19	Amfrasers	DBS	28.25	27.7	Hold
05/02/19	Jefferies	DBS	28.25	31.5	Buy	PER13.1x FY20