Will US attack Iran? Yes!

From my understanding of the US unilateralism culture, the US will launch some precision types of attacks against Iran.  In other words, the US will engage Iran in some restricted battles and not launch a full-scale war against Iran if history is a prologue.

Why?

The US will always engage wars with oil-rich countries and Iran happens to be an oil-producing nation.  The US sanctions against Iran will not yield the desired outcome that the US wanted.  Please see the example below.  Therefore, the US has decided to take some further action.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3010478/iranian-fuel-oil-shipped-violation-us-sanctions-unloaded-china

The US has a plan to deploy 120,000 military personnel and aircraft carrier strike force to the Middle East and this is not a show of force to deter Iran from carrying some threats against US targets in the region.  This is the usual US modus operandi (Intelligence fabrication and battle preparation).

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/14/politics/us-troops-middle-east-iran/index.html

https://www.apnews.com/c13d7c2ce4a1429bad83d5482f9193f3

The large deployment is similar to the force size deployed to attack Iraq in the past.  However, Iran is much larger than Iraq and the US will not fight the war with Iran on the ground but will launch air attacks to decimate the nuclear facilities and key installations.

The US will be able to tighten the sea surveillance and make things difficult for Iran to ship its oil with the large deployment.  However, Iran can still sell its oil through Turkey and Pakistan.  We must not forget that Pakistan has an oil pipeline that connects to China and China will continue to buy oil from Iran.  Furthermore, it is difficult for the US to stop Iran oil trading by land because Pakistan and Turkey are at loggerheads with the US.

In order to remove the threat by Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz, the US will definitely attack Iran to eliminate the threat permanently.  Although Iran and the US declared that they didn't want to fight with each other, both nations were just engaging in deceptions to distract each other but were, in fact, preparing for the ultimate battles.  After the restricted battles, the US will demand Iran to come to the negotiation table to avoid any further escalation.

I hope I'm wrong in my military analysis because I do not want to see this outcome since ordinary Iranians will suffer greatly in this "war".

China has started to sell US treasuries. - Part 3

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-markets-yuan-pboc/chinas-central-bank-wont-let-yuan-weaken-past-7-to-the-dollar-sources-idUSKCN1SN0NT

China's central bank has announced that it will defend the RMB at 7.  Technically speaking, the central bank will intervene at the 6.95-6.99 range.  What will the central bank do?

The central bank will continue to sell and stop buying the US treasuries to support the RMB.  The explanation had already been provided in our previous post.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries_17.html

Baltic dry index - 1040

Today, Friday, May 17 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 8 points, reaching 1040 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

====================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 987

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Hong Kong pro-democracy activists are a bunch of ungrateful people!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/us-secretary-state-mike-pompeo-005842713.html

Why did I say that?

When HK was under UK's administration for 99 years, all the HK governors were appointed by the UK and the Hongkongers had no voting right for 99 years.  After the 1997 handover, these HK pro-democracy activists started to appear and clamour for voting right to select the HK governor.  Why?  It is pretty obvious that the western countries are behind this and these activists have sold their souls to the western paymasters.  These people are truly ungrateful.

Furthermore, the UK government emptied the HK's coffer before the handover in 1997.  After the 1997 handover, the asian financial crisis happened a few months later and HK was defenseless as it had no money to fight off the speculators in the currency and stock markets.  China's GDP in 1997 was below US$1t and its foreign reserve was around US$150b.

During that time, China infused HKMA with more than US$80b without hesitation to fight off the currency and stock predators.  HK would become a 3rd world province if not for China's generous help especially when China didn't have a huge coffer (only US$150b) in 1997.

After crossing the hardest time in 1997, the HK activists started to disown China. What kind of moral values the HK activists are trying to inculcate to the next generation? Is it right to burn the bridge after crossing it?  Can we disown our parents after getting help from them?

HMI - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/23/19	phillip	HMI	0.540	0.77	Buy
02/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	HMI	0.535	0.73	Buy	DCF
02/14/19	phillip	HMI	0.550	0.77	Buy	DCF
05/14/19	Kim Eng	HMI	0.540	0.68	Buy	DCF, PER27x FY20
05/15/19	phillip	HMI	0.530	0.73	Buy	DCF
05/15/19	CIMB	HMI	0.530	0.68	Add	DCF
05/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	HMI	0.530	0.73	Buy	DCF
05/16/19	Kim Eng	HMI	0.545	0.66	Buy	DCF

Hi-P - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/08/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	0.965	0.68	Sell	PB0.8x
02/22/19	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	1.05	1.12	Hold	PER10x FY19
02/25/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	1.14	1.22	Hold	PB1.5x
03/13/19	Lim & Tan	Hi-P	1.75	0	Avoid	overvalued
04/09/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	1.63	1.22	Sell	PB1.5x FY19
05/06/19	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	1.44	1.41	Hold	PER12x FY19
05/06/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	1.44	1.22	Sell	PB1.5x FY19

Haw Par - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/28/19	Lim & Tan	Haw Par	12.39	0	Buy

Stock calls for 17 May 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/17/19	DMG & Partners	Bumitama	0.7	0.62	Neutral
05/17/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaCommercial	1.93	2.1	Buy	DCF, PB1.15x
05/17/19	phillip	City Developments	8.63	11.82	Buy	RNAV (30% discount)
05/17/19	phillip	Comfortdelgro	2.54	2.72	Accumulate	DCF, PER16.8x FY19
05/17/19	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.45	2.61	Buy
05/17/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.45	2.25	Neutral
05/17/19	CIMB	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.45	2.55	Add	DDM
05/17/19	DMG & Partners	Mindchamps	0.66	0.83	Buy	DCF
05/17/19	OCBC	SATS	5.22	5.35	Hold
05/17/19	phillip	Sembcorp Industries	2.55	3.75	Buy	Sum of parts
05/17/19	CIMB	SIA	9.4	10.14	Hold	PB0.9x CY19
05/17/19	Phillip	Singtel	3.14	3.31	Accumulate	Sum of parts, EV/Ebitda7x FY20
05/17/19	Amfrasers	Uni-Asia	1.13	1.86	Buy	Sum of parts, PB0.6x FY19, PER9.5x FY19
05/17/19	DBS Vickers	Yanlord	1.44	1.47	Hold	PER6x FY19/20
05/17/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.169	0.33	Add

Huawei will replace the US$21b chip orders with its own chips eventually.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/huaweis-hisilicon-says-long-preparing-u-ban-scenario-053715518--finance.html

The US chip makers will lose US$21b orders from Huawei eventually because of the US sanctions.  The other Chinese telecom and mobile phone makers will also replace foreign chips with China made chips and the US will lose the entire China market eventually.

We've stated before that the global semiconductor slowdown was permanent in 2018.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-global-semiconductor-slowdown-is.html

Singapore Nodx fell at a double digit pace again in April 2019.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/05/17/singapore-april-exports-slump-10-year-on-year/

Year on year changes (YOY):

April 2019: -10%

March 2019: -11.7%

February 2019: 4.9%

January 2019: -10.1%

December 2018: -8.5%

November 2018: -2.6%

October 2018: 8.3%

September 2018: 8.3%

August 2018: 5%

July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)

June 2018: 1.1%

May 2018: 15.5%

April 2018: 11.8%

March 2018: -2.7%

February 2018: -5.9%

January 2018: 13%

December 2017: 3.1%

November 2017: 9.1%

October 2017: 20.9%

September 2017: -1.1%

August 2017: 16.7%

July 2017: 8.5%

June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/singapore-nodx-contracted-117-in-march.html

No wonder SG is trying to get cozy with China now because the bad number will be reflected in the GDP data soon.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/why-did-sg-have-change-of-heart-real.html

China is stirring up anti-US sentiment in its citizens.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-trade-war-only-us-022837025.html

China is prepping its citizens for a long economic war with the US by stirring up anti-US sentiment so that its citizens will reduce or stop buying and using US products and services.

This is definitely not a piece of good news because the Chinese are a bunch of nationalistic people.

Once the US firms lose China market share, it will be very difficult to gain back.

China has started to sell US treasuries. - Part 2

Let me accentuate this again.  The selloff of the US treasuries by China is not a retaliatory move!

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries.html

Coincidentally, we had already provided the explanation in 2018.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-more-us-tries-to-hurt-china-more-it.html

US economic update!

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/15/atlanta-fed-forecast-for-gdp-growth-sliding-rate-cut-chances-surging.html

Atlanta Fed is one of the Fed banks which is tasked to provide the US GDP analysis and forecast.  For your information, every Fed bank is tasked to do something for the government.

Atlanta Fed is forecasting a weak economic growth and has cut the GDP growth from 3.2% to 1.1%.  This 2/3 cut has vindicated our previous analysis about the 1st QTR GDP below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-is-going-downhill.html

We had already predicted weak GDP growth in the 2nd QTR in our PMI post on 2 May 2019 because we were skeptical about the putative 1st QTR GDP number.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/us-ism-manufacturing-pmi-fell-in-april.html

The 1st QTR GDP growth of 3.2% was propped up by a sharp decline in imports and an increase in inventory buildup which was caused by weak retail sales and weak durable goods orders.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-has-flipped-and-fissures.html

Why did SG have a change of heart? A real change or a deception?

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/wow-singapore-is-trying-to-get-into.html

Will the Chinese believe in SG?

This change of heart comes too late.

SG government knows that our future is bleak because of the US-China trade war which won't be a short one.  Furthermore, we have an anti-SG neighbour (Malaysia) and it is always creating troubles for SG.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/singapore-is-heading-towards-political.html

Therefore, circumstances force our government to have a change of heart but the Chinese won't believe SG.  Why not?

As long as our military defence is dependent on US-based systems, we will always stand together with the US in times of crises.  The Chinese have seen through SG many times before unless we diversify our military defence.

SG knows that it has to rely on China now.  Hopefully, the Chinese will give SG another chance because being late is better than never.  Singapore also has to prove to the Chinese that we mean what we've said by diversifying our defence to gain China's trust.  If not, the Chinese won't trust SG at all.

Let's work together for a brighter future and world peace!

GSS Energy - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/07/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.097	0.19	Buy
03/04/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.112	0.17	Buy	DCF
05/14/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.081	0.08	Neutral	DCF

Grand Venture - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/04/19	CIMB	Grand Venture	0.25	0.34	Add	PER10x FY20

Golden Energy - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/13/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.245	0.36	Buy
03/07/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.235	0.3	Buy	PER10x
04/26/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.215	0.3	Buy

Stock calls for 16 May 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.4	1.5	Buy	DCF
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.525	0.58	Hold	PER10x
05/16/19	Phillip	APTV	0.178	0.16	Reduce	EV/Ebitda11x
05/16/19	DMG & Partners	City Developments	8.54	9.2	Neutral	RNAV (40% discount)
05/16/19	OCBC	City Developments	8.54	10.68	Buy
05/16/19	CIMB	City Developments	8.54	10.66	Add
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	Comfortdelgro	2.52	2.59	Hold	DCF, PER17.7x, Buy @ $2.40
05/16/19	Kim Eng	Comfortdelgro	2.52	2.4	Hold
05/16/19	Amfrasers	Comfortdelgro	2.52	2.77	Buy
05/16/19	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.7	1.53	Neutral	PER13x FY20
05/16/19	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.7	1.93	Buy	PER17x
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	First Resources	1.7	1.95	Buy	DCF, PER16.5x FY19
05/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.7	1.7	Hold	Buy @ $1.50
05/16/19	Kim Eng	HMI	0.545	0.66	Buy	DCF
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	Jumbo	0.405	0.51	Buy	PER23x FY19
05/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Jumbo	0.405	0.41	Hold	Buy @ $0.37
05/16/19	CIMB	Jumbo	0.405	0.52	Add
05/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Propnex	0.505	0.6	Buy
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	Riverstone	0.975	1.03	Hold	PER16.8x FY19/20
05/16/19	OCBC	Sembcorp Industries	2.54	3.13	Buy	Sum of parts
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	2.54	3.9	Buy
05/16/19	CIMB	Sembcorp Industries	2.54	3.41	Add
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	Silverlake	0.52	0.63	Buy	PER21x FY19
05/16/19	CIMB	Silverlake	0.52	0.58	Add
05/16/19	DMG & Partners	Singtel	3.13	3.35	Neutral	Sum of parts
05/16/19	OCBC	Singtel	3.13	3.59	Buy
05/16/19	CIMB	Singtel	3.13	3.4	Add	Sum of parts
05/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singtel	3.13	3.58	Buy
05/16/19	Kim Eng	Singtel	3.13	3.37	Hold	Sum of parts
05/16/19	OCBC	ST Engineering	3.9	4.22	Buy
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	ST Engineering	3.9	4.5	Buy
05/16/19	CIMB	ST Engineering	3.9	4.43	Add	PER22x FY20
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	UMS	0.64	0.45	Fully Valued	PER8x FY19/20
05/16/19	CIMB	UOB	25.1	29.58	Add	GGM
05/16/19	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	3.5	3.94	Buy	Sum of parts
05/16/19	OCBC	Wilmar	3.5	3.66	Hold	PB0.95x
05/16/19	CIMB	Wilmar	3.5	3.96	Add	Sum of parts
05/16/19	OCBC	Yanlord	1.44	1.68	Buy	PER5x

China has started to sell US treasuries.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-treasury-securities/china-sells-most-us-treasuries-in-nearly-two-and-a-half-years-idUSKCN1SL2U4

This is indeed an unusual move as it is the biggest selloff in nearly 2 and a half years.

However, this move might be misinterpreted by many because it could be that China was trying to stop its RMB from sliding further.

Like I said before, China is a consuming nation now and further slides in RMB will cause inflation in China to spike and slow down local consumption.  A rapid deterioration in RMB will impact imports and this will be bad for other export-oriented countries.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/china-is-consuming-economy-not.html