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Sunday, May 19, 2019

Will US attack Iran? Yes!

From my understanding of the US unilateralism culture, the US will launch some precision types of attacks against Iran.  In other words, the US will engage Iran in some restricted battles and not launch a full-scale war against Iran if history is a prologue.

Why?

The US will always engage wars with oil-rich countries and Iran happens to be an oil-producing nation.  The US sanctions against Iran will not yield the desired outcome that the US wanted.  Please see the example below.  Therefore, the US has decided to take some further action.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3010478/iranian-fuel-oil-shipped-violation-us-sanctions-unloaded-china

The US has a plan to deploy 120,000 military personnel and aircraft carrier strike force to the Middle East and this is not a show of force to deter Iran from carrying some threats against US targets in the region.  This is the usual US modus operandi (Intelligence fabrication and battle preparation).

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/14/politics/us-troops-middle-east-iran/index.html

https://www.apnews.com/c13d7c2ce4a1429bad83d5482f9193f3

The large deployment is similar to the force size deployed to attack Iraq in the past.  However, Iran is much larger than Iraq and the US will not fight the war with Iran on the ground but will launch air attacks to decimate the nuclear facilities and key installations.

The US will be able to tighten the sea surveillance and make things difficult for Iran to ship its oil with the large deployment.  However, Iran can still sell its oil through Turkey and Pakistan.  We must not forget that Pakistan has an oil pipeline that connects to China and China will continue to buy oil from Iran.  Furthermore, it is difficult for the US to stop Iran oil trading by land because Pakistan and Turkey are at loggerheads with the US.

In order to remove the threat by Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz, the US will definitely attack Iran to eliminate the threat permanently.  Although Iran and the US declared that they didn't want to fight with each other, both nations were just engaging in deceptions to distract each other but were, in fact, preparing for the ultimate battles.  After the restricted battles, the US will demand Iran to come to the negotiation table to avoid any further escalation.

I hope I'm wrong in my military analysis because I do not want to see this outcome since ordinary Iranians will suffer greatly in this "war".

2 comments:

Eric Ho said...

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/latest-iraq-says-exxon-mobil-104847121.html

Bahrain also shared the same analysis as us.

Eric Ho said...

But his son has a different mindset!