Stock calls for 23 May 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/23/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.41	2.71	Buy
05/23/19	CIMB	ISDN	0.215	0.32	Add	PER10x CY20
05/23/19	DMG & Partners	Japan Foods	0.44	0.4	Hold
05/23/19	Lim & Tan	Stamford Land	0.49	0	Hold

President Xi has hardened his stance in the US-China trade war.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3011186/xi-jinping-calls-new-long-march-dramatic-sign-china-preparing

President Xi has hardened his stance by rallying his nation for the new long march.  This is a dramatic sign that China won't relent in the US-China trade war and won't sign any humiliating trade deal.  This is significantly different from the previous meek stance put up by the Chinese.

Thus, the US can forget about bulldozing its way into China now.  The US-China trade talk has broken down officially now.

Will SIA seek compensation from Boeing?

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/air-china-asks-boeing-compensation-041331381.html

Does SIA dare to seek compensation from Boeing for its business losses?

It will reflect badly on SIA as a public listed company when other airliners can seek compensations from Boeing.

Hutchison Port - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/13/19	OCBC	Hutchison Port	0.26	0.22	Sell
02/13/19	DBS Vickers	Hutchison Port	0.26	0.26	Hold	DCF
02/25/19	OCBC	Hutchison Port	0.235	0.22	Hold
04/30/19	OCBC	Hutchison Port	0.24	0.22	Hold
04/30/19	DBS Vickers	Hutchison Port	0.24	0.26	Hold

HRnetGroup - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	HRnetGroup	0.8	1.18	Buy	DCF
02/25/19	DMG & Partners	HRnetGroup	0.795	1.06	Buy	DCF
02/26/19	DBS Vickers	HRnetGroup	0.8	1.05	Buy	PER15x FY19, ex-cash
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	HRnetGroup	0.79	1.06	Buy
03/26/19	CIMB	HRnetGroup	0.765	1.03	Add
05/07/19	DMG & Partners	HRnetGroup	0.77	1.06	Buy	DCF
05/13/19	DMG & Partners	HRnetGroup	0.77	0.94	Buy	DCF
05/14/19	DBS Vickers	HRnetGroup	0.76	0.85	Hold	PER16x FY19, ex-cash

Hotel Properties (HPL) - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/27/19	Lim & Tan	Hotel Properties	3.76	0	Hold
04/17/19	OCBC	Hotel Properties	3.88	4.74	Buy

Stock calls for 22 May 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/22/19	phillip	Banyan Tree	0.535	0.76	Accumulate	Sum of parts, PB0.7x FY19
05/22/19	phillip	CNMC	0.2	0.31	Buy	DCF
05/22/19	CIMB	DBS	25.74	27.64	Hold
05/22/19	Kim Eng	DBS	25.74	29.46	Buy
05/22/19	Amfrasers	Japan Foods	0.44	0.55	Neutral	DCF
05/22/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.09	11.07	Hold
05/22/19	DMG & Partners	ST Engineering	3.96	4.45	Buy	DCF & PER20.5x FY20 & PB5.5x FY20 & EV/Ebitda11x FY20
05/22/19	Kim Eng	UOB	24.83	28.97	Buy

China mother and daughter created a raucous at Bangkok airport

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7031753/Air-passenger-prevents-plane-leaving-wait-shopaholic-daughter.html

There is a reason for a social credit standing in China even though it is very invasive on the Chinese.  It is a good way for the communist government to control its citizens' unruly behaviours onshore and offshore.  We cannot blame the Chinese government for the pervasive public surveillance by using the social credit record system.  It will ban any unpleasant and undesirable citizens from taking public transportations such as HSR and Airliners in China to obtaining banking services.

These 2 ladies' behaviours will definitely lower their social credit ratings in China and will have difficulties flying overseas again after such a big hoo-ha.

Japan trade surplus fell 90% because of China.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/japans-exports-fall-for-fifth-straight-month-2019-05-21

Japan trade surplus fell 90% with just a 6.3% drop in China shipments.  This shows that Japan is highly dependent on China's growth.

Tommy Koh wanted SG to be dependent on Japan instead of China.  Does this make any sense at all?

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/tommy-koh-has-anti-china-mindset-and.html

Why does SG need to depend on Japan when SG can go directly to China?

Anti-US sentiment is simmering in China now.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-social-media-users-rallying-032803080.html

If the anti-US sentiment is left unchecked, it will bite the US products and services really hard.

I must say that the communist government's campaign is working effectively.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/china-is-stirring-up-anti-us-sentiment.html

China will ban rare earth exports to US if US continues to bully China.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-20/xi-s-trip-to-rare-earths-plant-stokes-talk-of-trade-retaliation

Currently, China produces more than 90% of the rare earth supply and this gives China the monopolistic power.

Rare earth materials are used in many electronic applications, batteries and military weapons.  Without rare earths, the US modern industries including defense contractors will suffer greatly.

The US will have to bow to China if China is to ban rare earth exports to the US.  It is not easy to find replacements for rare earth suppliers because the production process is highly toxic.

Hongkong Land - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/17/19	DBS Vickers	Hongkong Land	6.92	7.86	Buy
03/01/19	DBS Vickers	Hongkong Land	6.77	8.02	Buy	RNAV (40% discount)
05/10/19	DBS Vickers	Hongkong Land	6.97	8.02	Buy

Hong Leong Finance - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/28/19	Lim & Tan	Hong Leong Finance	2.71	0	Buy
04/26/19	Lim & Tan	Hong Leong Finance	2.8	0	Buy

Ho Bee - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/26/19	Lim & Tan	Ho Bee	2.51	0	Buy
03/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Ho Bee	2.5	2.79	Buy	RNAV (30% discount)
04/01/19	Lim & Tan	Ho Bee	2.52	0	Buy

Stock calls for 21 May 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/21/19	phillip	China Everbright	0.385	0.5	Buy	PER9x
05/21/19	Amfrasers	CSE Global	0.49	0.58	Buy	Sum of parts, PER12.5x FY19, PB2.1x FY19
05/21/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.4	2.6	Buy
05/21/19	phillip	Penguin	0.44	0.61	Buy	PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)
05/21/19	phillip	SATS	5.08	5.47	Accumulate	DCF, PER24x FY19
05/21/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	5.08	5.05	Hold
05/21/19	DBS Vickers	SATS	5.08	5.44	Buy	DCF & PER22x FY20
05/21/19	phillip	SHS	0.174	0	Cease coverage
05/21/19	OCBC	SIA	9.3	11.02	Buy
05/21/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.3	9.6	Hold
05/21/19	DBS Vickers	SIA	9.3	10.8	Buy	PB0.95x FY20
05/21/19	CIMB	UMS	0.62	0.55	Reduce

US companies petition to Trump to stop the tariffs.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/20/nike-adidas-sign-letter-to-trump-urging-against-tariffs-on-footwear.html

The US says that China will be hurt more because of the tariffs and the US will win the trade war.

If this is true, why are the US companies complaining on behalf of China?

Are these US companies being paid by China government?

Singapore is slowing down rapidly.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-first-quarter-gdp-1-2-2019-growth-000244709--business.html

Singapore 1st QTR GDP growth is almost at a decade low.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/singapore-nodx-fell-at-double-digit.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/why-did-sg-have-change-of-heart-real.html

When our government suddenly spoke for China, I knew something was amiss.  I expected the weak GDP number to surface soon after our FM's speech.

Do not subscribe to Luckin coffee ipo! Why? - Part 2

Luckin has fallen below its Ipo price of $17 in a few days.

We told you guys not to subscribe and we're proven right.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/do-not-subscribe-to-luckin-coffee-ipo.html

Inverse relationship between China A50 and RMB. - Part 2

Blue line: China A50
Black line: USD/CNY (RMB)

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/inverse-relationship-between-china-a50.html

As stated previously, China A50 and RMB have an inverse relationship.

Why?

The rationale is very simple.  When RMB depreciates, it will result in investors' forex losses and this will prompt investors to pull money out of China A50.  When the investors sell China A50, they will convert the RMB back into their local currencies and result in weakening RMB.

Therefore, if investors can predict the future RMB trajectory, they can predict the future movement of China A50.

RMB is expected to depreciate in a US-China trade war.  Therefore, the decline in China A50 is a known consequence.

The western semiconductor shares are falling.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/chips-down-huawei-u-blacklisting-knocks-eu-semiconductor-090003209--finance.html

The western semiconductor shares are falling because of Trump.

These western chip-makers are losing the Chinese market permanently and no other market can make up for the losses.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/huawei-will-replace-us21b-chip-orders.html

The western chip-maker share prices are highly overvalued without Chinese market revenues.