HSBC is in trouble now because of HK protests.

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3022219/hsbcs-greater-china-head-helen-wong-quits-bank-loses

There was a rumour in the banking industry that a HSBC account was used to fund the HK protests.  China has found the opportunity to punish HSBC now after it set Huawei up.

The top honchos of HSBC have been forced to leave now.  If not, China will come down hard on HSBC.

The US-China trade war is escalating! - Part 2

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-ex-central-bankers-warn-052125447.html

China ex-central bankers are warning that the current US-China trade war will deteriorate into full-blown currency and financial wars.

We've already stated the 4 stages of the escalation below.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-us-china-trade-war-is-escalating.html

Trade war -----> Currency war -----> Financial war ------> Economic war

This warning means that the Chinese don't expect to engage in an economic war with the US since there is no mention of the economic war and the worst outcome will be a financial war.

What is a financial war?

A financial war will mean that both sides do not allow each other to use its own financial clearing and paying systems.  Currently, the world is mostly using the US financial clearing and paying systems such as telegraphic transfers (SWIFT), credit card systems (visa, master, amex), etc.  Therefore, China will be at the losing end because its financial clearing and paying systems (alipay, wechat pay, union pay) are not well established yet and the US doesn't use it except in China.  I foresee that China will enforce all payments be settled in RMB during the financial war so that it can bypass the US systems and USD.

Let's see how this will pan out first before we discuss this further.

Why did the US and Taiwan engineer the Hong Kong protests?

It is easy to comprehend Taiwan's motive for supporting HK protests because it wants to gain independence and reject the 1 country 2 systems structure.

However, the US has a more sinister motive in engineering the HK protests.

The US embassy has about 1,000 staffs in HK.  Why does the US put so many of its own people in a small country like HK?  HK has about 7m people and this means that 1 US staff can monitor 700 Hongkongers.

The US is using HK to gather a lot of intelligence because China has decimated its spying network in the mainland.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-truth-behind-hk-protests.html

Therefore, the US will reject HK's extradition bill at all costs because it wants to protect its own citizens from any crime especially from espionage.  Although the bill is dead, the US still continues to engineer more protests because it feels that it can make more demands.

The outcome of this whole event will be very bad and the Hongkongers will be the ones paying a huge price.

IMF defended China after the US called it a currency manipulator.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/imf-says-china-may-more-201233307.html

The US called China a currency manipulator after China's refusal to support its RMB.  Basically, the US wants China to manipulate its RMB.  When China refuses to do so, the US labels China as a manipulator.  Does this sound right?

The IMF has come out to defend China now because it is really ridiculous to label China as a manipulator when China stops intervening its RMB.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-us-has-labelled-china-as-currency.html

The US is making itself a laughing stock in the whole world.

Baltic dry index - 1748

Today, Friday, August 09 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 28 points, reaching 1748 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

=======================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 934

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

The US-China trade war is escalating!

https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-holds-off-huawei-licenses-210704605.html

Timeline of escalation:

The US would impose 10% additional China tariffs on 1 September 2019.

China retaliated by suspending US agricultural purchases and also stopped its support for RMB-US $7 level.

The US withheld Huawei licences.

========================

We can see that the trade war has metastasized.  The escalation pattern is usually depicted in the following 4 stages.

Trade war -----> Currency war -----> Financial war ------> Economic war

We are currently at the beginning of stage 2 (currency war).

GSS Energy - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/07/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.097	0.19	Buy
03/04/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.112	0.17	Buy	DCF
05/14/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.081	0.08	Neutral	DCF
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.069	0.08	Neutral

Grand Venture - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/04/19	CIMB	Grand Venture	0.25	0.34	Add	PER10x FY20

Golden Energy - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/13/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.245	0.36	Buy
03/07/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.235	0.3	Buy	PER10x
04/26/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.215	0.3	Buy
05/24/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.198	0.24	Accumulate	PER10x
06/03/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.198	0.24	Accumulate
07/04/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.225	0.24	Accumulate

Stock calls for 8 August 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/08/19	Phillip	APAC Realty	0.515	0.58	Buy	DCF
08/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	BRC Asia	1.31	1.75	Buy	PER11.5x FY20
08/08/19	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.23	1.6	Buy
08/08/19	phillip	China Sunsine	1.08	1.43	Buy	FCFE
08/08/19	phillip	EC World Reit	0.735	0.87	Buy	DDM
08/08/19	DMG & Partners	EC World Reit	0.735	0.82	Buy	DDM
08/08/19	DMG & Partners	Jumbo	0.375	0.47	Buy	DCF
08/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Jumbo	0.375	0.37	Hold
08/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.71	0.95	Buy
08/08/19	DBS Vickers	Koufu	0.71	0.88	Buy	PER17x FY20
08/08/19	DBS Vickers	Sasseur	0.8	0.97	Buy	DCF
08/08/19	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.37	0.48	Buy	DCF
08/08/19	Kim Eng	Singtel	3.29	3.44	Hold	Sum of parts

Golden Agri - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	Golden Agri	0.245	0.2	Sell
01/28/19	DMG & Partners	Golden Agri	0.27	0.23	Sell	Sum of parts, PER10x, cut from $0.39
02/20/19	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.255	0.24	Hold
02/27/19	DMG & Partners	Golden Agri	0.28	0.23	Sell	Sum of parts
02/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Golden Agri	0.28	0.21	Sell
03/01/19	CIMB	Golden Agri	0.275	0.23	Reduce	Sum of parts (10% discount)
03/01/19	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.275	0.27	Hold
04/09/19	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.315	0.29	Hold	PB0.65x
04/09/19	CIMB	Golden Agri	0.315	0.23	Reduce
04/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	Golden Agri	0.295	0.21	Sell
05/14/19	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.275	0.29	Hold
05/15/19	DMG & Partners	Golden Agri	0.275	0.23	Sell	Sum of parts
05/27/19	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.265	0.27	Hold
05/28/19	CIMB	Golden Agri	0.26	0.23	Reduce	Sum of parts (10% discount)
05/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Golden Agri	0.26	0.21	Sell

GL Ltd - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/07/19	Lim & Tan	GL Ltd	0.735	1.76	Buy	Sum of parts

Geo Energy - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/19	phillip	Geo Energy	0.176	0.245	Buy
02/13/19	phillip	Geo Energy	0.198	0.245	Buy
03/18/19	phillip	Geo Energy	0.183	0.245	Buy
03/25/19	phillip	Geo Energy	0.186	0.215	Accumulate	PER10x
03/26/19	Amfrasers	Geo Energy	0.182	0.19	Hold	DCF
04/26/19	phillip	Geo Energy	0.176	0.215	Accumulate
05/29/19	phillip	Geo Energy	0.148	0.15	Neutral	PER10x
06/03/19	phillip	Geo Energy	0.149	0.15	Neutral
07/04/19	phillip	Geo Energy	0.155	0.15	Neutral

Stock calls for 7 August 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/07/19	OCBC	Capitaland	3.48	4.04	Buy
08/07/19	DBS Vickers	Jumbo	0.38	0.47	Buy	PER23x FY20
08/07/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.865	0.94	Buy	DDM
08/07/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.865	0.95	Buy	DCF
08/07/19	phillip	Penguin	0.495	0.61	Buy	PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)
08/07/19	OCBC	Singapore Post	0.945	1	Hold
08/07/19	DBS Vickers	Singtel	3.52	3.4	Hold	Sum of parts
08/07/19	Phillip	Starhub	1.48	1.58	Accumlate	EV/Ebitda6x
08/07/19	DMG & Partners	Starhub	1.48	1.52	Neutral	DCF
08/07/19	OCBC	Starhub	1.48	1.52	Hold
08/07/19	UOB Kay Hian	Starhub	1.48	1.45	Sell
08/07/19	DBS Vickers	Starhub	1.48	1.55	Hold	EV/Ebitda 6.6x FY19
08/07/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sunningdale	1.28	1.01	Sell
08/07/19	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.37	1.82	Buy	Sum of parts

Many analysts don't understand economics at all.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-could-unleash-this-weapon-on-the-financial-markets-to-wallop-the-us-152709274.html

The analysts who suggested that China could be selling its US treasuries to punish the US were either stupid or didn't understand economics at all.

We've stated before that China would not sell its US treasuries to punish the US but only to support its RMB.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries.html

We left out the US treasuries in our post below because we knew that the US treasuries would not be one of the cards that China would hand out.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/how-many-cards-can-china-use-against-us.html

Genting - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.975	1.23	Buy	DCF
01/15/19	Kim Eng	Genting	1.03	1.26	Buy	EV/Ebitda9x FY19
01/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	1.06	1.38	Buy	EV/Ebitda10x FY19
02/15/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	1.1	1.23	Buy	DCF
02/22/19	CIMB	Genting	1.11	1.28	Add	EV/Ebitda9x CY20
02/22/19	OCBC	Genting	1.11	1.31	Buy	FCFE
02/22/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	1.11	1.22	Buy	DCF
02/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	1.11	1.32	Buy
02/22/19	Kim Eng	Genting	1.11	1.26	Buy	EV/Ebitda9x FY19
02/25/19	DBS Vickers	Genting	1.07	1.54	Buy	EV/Ebitda12x
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	1.02	1.22	Buy
03/26/19	CIMB	Genting	1.03	1.28	Add
04/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	1.07	1.26	Buy	EV/Ebitda 9x
04/04/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	1.07	1.08	Neutral	DCF
04/04/19	CIMB	Genting	1.07	1.11	Add	EV/Ebitda8x
04/04/19	OCBC	Genting	1.07	1.31	Buy
04/04/19	DBS Vickers	Genting	1.07	1.54	Buy	EV/Ebitda 12x
04/04/19	Kim Eng	Genting	1.07	1.12	Hold	EV/Ebitda 8x FY19
04/04/19	Citibank	Genting	1.07	1.28	Buy
05/10/19	Kim Eng	Genting	0.95	1.04	Hold
05/10/19	OCBC	Genting	0.95	1.23	Buy
05/10/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.95	1.02	Neutral	DCF
05/10/19	CIMB	Genting	0.95	1.06	Add	EV/Ebitda8x CY20
05/10/19	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	0.95	1.26	Buy
05/10/19	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.95	1.2	Buy	DCF
05/10/19	Citibank	Genting	0.95	1.16	Buy
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.86	1.02	Neutral
06/24/19	CIMB	Genting	0.93	1.06	Add
08/05/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.9	0.97	Neutral	EV/Ebitda7x FY19
08/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	0.9	1.11	Buy
08/06/19	Kim Eng	Genting	0.885	0.99	Hold
08/06/19	Citibank	Genting	0.885	1.07	Buy
08/06/19	CIMB	Genting	0.885	1	Add	EV/Ebitda8x CY20
08/06/19	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.885	1.2	Buy
08/06/19	Lim & Tan	Genting	0.885	0	Hold

Fu Yu - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.19	0.23	Buy	DCF
01/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.186	0.27	Buy	EV/Ebitda 5.3x FY19
01/15/19	CIMB	Fu Yu	0.2	0.2	Hold	PB0.9x
02/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.205	0.27	Buy
02/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.21	0.285	Buy
02/27/19	Lim & Tan	Fu Yu	0.21	0	Buy
02/28/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.215	0.24	Buy	DCF
02/28/19	CIMB	Fu Yu	0.215	0.2	Hold
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.205	0.24	Buy
03/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.2	0.285	Buy
04/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.205	0.285	Buy	EV/Ebitda5.5x
05/07/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.21	0.24	Buy	DCF
05/10/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.205	0.285	Buy
05/10/19	Lim & Tan	Fu Yu	0.205	0	Buy
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.19	0.24	Buy
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.2	0.29	Buy
07/09/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.215	0.24	Buy	DCF
07/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.215	0.29	Buy

Frencken - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/12/19	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.51	0.67	Buy	PER10x FY19
04/15/19	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.6	0.75	Buy	PER8.5x FY19/20
04/17/19	CIMB	Frencken	0.635	0.9	Add	PER10x FY20
05/09/19	DMG & Partners	Frencken	0.615	0.82	Buy	DCF
05/10/19	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.615	0.75	Buy	PER8.5x FY19/20
05/10/19	Lim & Tan	Frencken	0.615	0	Buy
05/10/19	CIMB	Frencken	0.615	0.9	Add
05/14/19	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.595	0.67	Buy	PER10x FY19
06/12/19	DMG & Partners	Frencken	0.625	0.82	Buy	DCF

Stock calls for 6 August 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/06/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.525	0.65	Buy	DCF
08/06/19	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.525	0.48	Hold	PER10x FY20
08/06/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.53	1.6	Hold
08/06/19	Kim Eng	Genting	0.885	0.99	Hold
08/06/19	Citibank	Genting	0.885	1.07	Buy
08/06/19	CIMB	Genting	0.885	1	Add	EV/Ebitda8x CY20
08/06/19	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.885	1.2	Buy
08/06/19	Lim & Tan	Genting	0.885	0	Hold
08/06/19	CIMB	Hongkong Land	5.74	7.4	Add
08/06/19	Citibank	Hongkong Land	5.74	5.85	Sell
08/06/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	1.2	1.45	Buy
08/06/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.88	0.92	Buy	DCF
08/06/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.88	0.93	Accumulate	DCF
08/06/19	CIMB	OCBC	11.08	12.59	Hold	GGM, PB1.3x
08/06/19	Macquarie	Sembcorp Marine	1.28	1.4	Neutral	PB
08/06/19	Amfrasers	Sheng Siong	1.16	1.27	Outperform
08/06/19	OCBC	Starhill	0.775	0.81	Buy
08/06/19	CIMB	UOB	25.91	29.58	Add	GGM, PB1.3x