Stock calls for 13 August 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/13/19	CIMB	APAC Realty	0.51	0.6	Add	PER10x FY20
08/13/19	CIMB	CEI	0.985	0.9	Hold	PER10x FY20
08/13/19	phillip	China Aviation Oil	1.18	1.52	Buy	PER10.5x FY20
08/13/19	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.18	1.5	Buy	Sum of parts
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	China Aviation Oil	1.18	1.85	Buy
08/13/19	OCBC	City Developments	9.04	10.68	Buy
08/13/19	DMG & Partners	City Developments	9.04	9.2	Neutral	RNAV (40% discount)
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	City Developments	9.04	11	Buy	RNAV (30% discount)
08/13/19	CIMB	Dairy Farm	6.98	7.29	Hold
08/13/19	CIMB	First Reit	1.06	1.23	Add
08/13/19	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.525	0.73	Buy	PER13x FY19
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.66	0.8	Buy
08/13/19	CIMB	Frencken	0.66	0.9	Add
08/13/19	DMG & Partners	Frencken	0.66	0.82	Buy	DCF
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.66	0.8	Buy	PER8.5x
08/13/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.235	0.23	Neutral	DCF
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	Riverstone	0.9	1.16	Buy	PER14.5x FY20
08/13/19	CIMB	Sasseur	0.805	0.94	Add	DDM
08/13/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.18	0.96	Sell	DCF
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	SIIC	0.235	0.265	Hold
08/13/19	Phillip	Singtel	3.26	3.45	Accumulate	Sum of parts
08/13/19	DMG & Partners	Singtel	3.26	3.4	Neutral	Sum of parts
08/13/19	CIMB	Singtel	3.26	3.6	Add	Sum of parts
08/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singtel	3.26	3.32	Hold
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	Singtel	3.26	3.25	Hold	EV/Ebitda6.3x
08/13/19	CIMB	Starhub	1.45	1.65	Hold	DCF
08/13/19	OCBC	UOL	7.2	8.5	Buy
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	UOL	7.2	8.53	Buy	PB0.8x
08/13/19	Lim & Tan	UOL	7.2	0	Buy on weakness
08/13/19	Kim Eng	Venture	14.76	18.88	Buy	Roe-g/Coe-g, PB2.2x FY19
08/13/19	DMG & Partners	Venture	14.76	16.3	Buy	PER13x FY19
08/13/19	CIMB	Venture	14.76	16.28	Add	PER12,5x
08/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Venture	14.76	17.7	Buy
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	Venture	14.76	18.6	Buy	PER13.7x FY20
08/13/19	Lim & Tan	Venture	14.76	0	Hold
08/13/19	CIMB	Yangzijiang	1.04	1.61	Hold	Sum of parts

The US police are doing violent crackdowns on US protestors!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/portland-oregon-braces-far-rally-050932238.html

Hey! Where's the human rights group?

Where is democracy in the US?

A violent crackdown on US protestors is unacceptable and is the work of a thuggish regime!

Mahathir skins SG again after attending our National Day Parade.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/malaysia-develop-480-mln-oil-072309235.html

Mahathir wants to destroy our oil trading hub.

Let's recap what he's done insofar.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/mahathir-is-skinning-singapore-again.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/here-we-go-again-mahathir-is-at-it-again.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/01/singapore-ah-bengs-ranting-about.html

Singapore government has revised down SG GDP growth by close to 100%.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-cuts-growth-outlook-trade-war-bites-052350837--finance.html

Omg! SG government revises down our GDP growth tremendously (a complete wipeout).  Financially speaking, it will be a total loss.

How did SG end up having to cut its forecast by such a big margin? This was because our government had underestimated the US-China trade war since PM Lee thought that China would lose and bend over.  However, we disagreed with PM Lee in our post below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/pm-lee-has-made-judgment-error-on-china.html

Omg! Argentina is going into bankruptcy again!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/markets-set-sell-off-argentina-030759260.html

The investors who bought the Argentinian 100-year bonds are going to suffer heavy losses.

https://qz.com/1686230/argentinas-100-year-bonds-dive-on-primary-election-shock/?utm_source=YPL&yptr=yahoo

What are the world crises now?

US-China trade war
Brexit
Japan-Korea trade war
India-Pakistan (Kashmir) military war
Iran sanction
Venezuela sanction
HK protests
North Korea

Hong Kong protestors are back at the airport and hospital.

Passengers are stuck at the airport because their flights are cancelled today.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/hong-kong-airport-reopens-flights-cancelled-protests-11803916

The protestors also occupy the hospital now.

Anti-protestors are emerging in Hong Kong.

We've stated the black-tee protestors would be at the receiving end in the end.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/hong-kong-stops-all-air-flights-today.html

HSBC is a rogue bank!

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/hsbc-is-in-trouble-now-because-of-hk.html

Hong Kong stops all air flights today!

HK protestors occupy HK airport again.  All flights are being cancelled today.

These protestors will be at the receiving end when public wrath starts to rear its head.  When will this happen? When HK economy plunges into a great recession and huge retrenchments begin, these retrenched Hongkongers will vent their frustrations by attacking the black-tee protestors.

The day of reckoning will come.......it's just a matter of when.

The US diplomat that met the protestors in HK.

https://www.rt.com/news/466078-hong-kong-us-joshua-wong/

Julie Eadeh was the diplomat that met the HK protestors.

If you tell me that the US is not involved in the HK protests, I don't believe it because I don't see diplomats from other countries meeting with the HK protestors.

HSBC is in trouble now because of HK protests.

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3022219/hsbcs-greater-china-head-helen-wong-quits-bank-loses

There was a rumour in the banking industry that a HSBC account was used to fund the HK protests.  China has found the opportunity to punish HSBC now after it set Huawei up.

The top honchos of HSBC have been forced to leave now.  If not, China will come down hard on HSBC.

The US-China trade war is escalating! - Part 2

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-ex-central-bankers-warn-052125447.html

China ex-central bankers are warning that the current US-China trade war will deteriorate into full-blown currency and financial wars.

We've already stated the 4 stages of the escalation below.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-us-china-trade-war-is-escalating.html

Trade war -----> Currency war -----> Financial war ------> Economic war

This warning means that the Chinese don't expect to engage in an economic war with the US since there is no mention of the economic war and the worst outcome will be a financial war.

What is a financial war?

A financial war will mean that both sides do not allow each other to use its own financial clearing and paying systems.  Currently, the world is mostly using the US financial clearing and paying systems such as telegraphic transfers (SWIFT), credit card systems (visa, master, amex), etc.  Therefore, China will be at the losing end because its financial clearing and paying systems (alipay, wechat pay, union pay) are not well established yet and the US doesn't use it except in China.  I foresee that China will enforce all payments be settled in RMB during the financial war so that it can bypass the US systems and USD.

Let's see how this will pan out first before we discuss this further.

Why did the US and Taiwan engineer the Hong Kong protests?

It is easy to comprehend Taiwan's motive for supporting HK protests because it wants to gain independence and reject the 1 country 2 systems structure.

However, the US has a more sinister motive in engineering the HK protests.

The US embassy has about 1,000 staffs in HK.  Why does the US put so many of its own people in a small country like HK?  HK has about 7m people and this means that 1 US staff can monitor 700 Hongkongers.

The US is using HK to gather a lot of intelligence because China has decimated its spying network in the mainland.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-truth-behind-hk-protests.html

Therefore, the US will reject HK's extradition bill at all costs because it wants to protect its own citizens from any crime especially from espionage.  Although the bill is dead, the US still continues to engineer more protests because it feels that it can make more demands.

The outcome of this whole event will be very bad and the Hongkongers will be the ones paying a huge price.

IMF defended China after the US called it a currency manipulator.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/imf-says-china-may-more-201233307.html

The US called China a currency manipulator after China's refusal to support its RMB.  Basically, the US wants China to manipulate its RMB.  When China refuses to do so, the US labels China as a manipulator.  Does this sound right?

The IMF has come out to defend China now because it is really ridiculous to label China as a manipulator when China stops intervening its RMB.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-us-has-labelled-china-as-currency.html

The US is making itself a laughing stock in the whole world.

Baltic dry index - 1748

Today, Friday, August 09 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 28 points, reaching 1748 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 934

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

The US-China trade war is escalating!

https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-holds-off-huawei-licenses-210704605.html

Timeline of escalation:

The US would impose 10% additional China tariffs on 1 September 2019.

China retaliated by suspending US agricultural purchases and also stopped its support for RMB-US $7 level.

The US withheld Huawei licences.

========================

We can see that the trade war has metastasized.  The escalation pattern is usually depicted in the following 4 stages.

Trade war -----> Currency war -----> Financial war ------> Economic war

We are currently at the beginning of stage 2 (currency war).

GSS Energy - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/07/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.097	0.19	Buy
03/04/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.112	0.17	Buy	DCF
05/14/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.081	0.08	Neutral	DCF
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.069	0.08	Neutral

Grand Venture - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/04/19	CIMB	Grand Venture	0.25	0.34	Add	PER10x FY20

Golden Energy - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/13/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.245	0.36	Buy
03/07/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.235	0.3	Buy	PER10x
04/26/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.215	0.3	Buy
05/24/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.198	0.24	Accumulate	PER10x
06/03/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.198	0.24	Accumulate
07/04/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.225	0.24	Accumulate