Baltic dry index - 1767

Today, Friday, October 04 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 10 points, reaching 1767 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 855

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

HK protestors must understand the consequences of rioting.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/hong-kong-metro-system-remain-010856466.html

There will be consequences of rioting.  Just look at France's yellow vest protests.

More than 24 yellow vests lost their eyes.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/14/europe/france-bastille-day-injured-yellow-vests-intl/index.html

11 were killed during the yellow vest protests.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/france-yellow-vest-protests-complete-5-months/1455001

Thousands got injured too.

The US government is fudging its employment data again.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/04/heres-where-the-jobs-are-for-September-2019-in-one-chart.html

The US unemployment rate drops to 3.5%.  Can you believe that?

Let's suss out the devil!

The PMI employment index contracted in August.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy-in.html

The PMI employment index contracted in September again.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/10/ism-pmi-declined-to-478-in-september.html

The latest ADP private payrolls were slowing down.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/02/adp-jobs-report-private-payrolls-grow-but-hiring-slows.html

I really cannot find anything positive to support these euphoric employment data.

What's the point of publishing overly optimistic figures but these figures will be revised down by a few hundred thousands later?

The US is always using this dirty trick to prop up the stock markets.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-us-was-caught-red-handed-for.html

Hong Kong anti-mask ban will be in effect on 5 October 2019.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/hong-kong-protests-ban-face-mask-law-carrie-lam-police-11969660

The HK anti-mask ban will be in effect on 5 October 2019.  This is an effective government action as shown in the yellow vest protest in France which had implemented this ban.  However, the HK rioters will be repulsive against this ban.

APAC Realty - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/12/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.5	0.72	Buy
02/12/19	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.5	0.56	Hold
03/01/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.57	0.72	Buy	DCF
03/01/19	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.57	0.7	Buy	PER12x
04/04/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.615	0.72	Buy	RNAV
05/07/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.555	0.72	Buy
05/14/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.545	0.67	Buy	DCF
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.525	0.58	Hold	PER10x
06/03/19	Phillip	APAC Realty	0.5	0.65	Buy	DCF
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.5	0.67	Buy
06/07/19	CIMB	APAC Realty	0.51	0.67	Add
07/15/19	Phillip	APAC Realty	0.545	0.65	Buy	DCF
08/06/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.525	0.65	Buy	DCF
08/06/19	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.525	0.48	Hold	PER10x FY20
08/08/19	Phillip	APAC Realty	0.515	0.58	Buy	DCF
08/13/19	CIMB	APAC Realty	0.51	0.6	Add	PER10x FY20
09/12/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.495	0.65	Buy

Amara - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/05/19	DMG & Partners	Amara	0.46	0.88	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)

AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/25/19	Kim Eng	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.42	1.5	Buy	DDM
04/25/19	DBS Vickers	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.42	1.5	Buy	DCF
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.4	1.5	Buy	DCF
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.46	1.5	Buy	DCF
07/25/19	Lim & Tan	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.47	0	Hold
07/26/19	Kim Eng	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.47	1.6	Buy	DDM

Stock calls for 4 October 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
10/04/19	Lim & Tan	A-Reit	3.08	0	Hold
10/04/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaCommercial	2.04	2.3	Buy
10/04/19	CIMB	China Sunsine	1.1	1.1	Hold
10/04/19	phillip	DBS	24.57	27.6	Accumulate
10/04/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.6	1.7	Hold
10/04/19	phillip	OCBC	10.71	12.32	Accumulate
10/04/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.54	0.59	Buy
10/04/19	DBS Vickers	Suntec Reit	1.9	2.15	Buy
10/04/19	phillip	UOB	25.33	28.6	Accumulate

AEM - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/30/19	Kim Eng	AEM	0.905	1.21	Buy	PB2.9x FY19/20, EV/Ebitda5.2x FY20
02/26/19	Kim Eng	AEM	1.05	1.24	Buy	PB2.8x FY19/20
02/26/19	CIMB	AEM	1.05	1.11	Hold	PER10x FY20
04/26/19	CIMB	AEM	1.16	1.21	Hold	PER10x FY20
05/09/19	Kim Eng	AEM	1.05	1.4	Buy	PB3.1x FY19/20
06/11/19	Kim Eng	AEM	0.945	1.4	Buy	PB3.1x FY19/20
07/18/19	CIMB	AEM	1.04	1.23	Add	PER10x FY20
07/29/19	Kim Eng	AEM	1.22	1.4	Buy	PB3x FY19/20
08/14/19	Kim Eng	AEM	1.09	1.4	Buy	Roe-g/Coe-g
09/16/19	Kim Eng	AEM	1.19	1.5	Buy	Roe-g/Coe-g
10/03/19	Kim Eng	AEM	1.12	1.5	Buy	Roe-g/Coe-g

Accordia Golf Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/15/19	Amfrasers	Accordia Golf Trust	0.55	0.61	Hold
02/19/19	Amfrasers	Accordia Golf Trust	0.565	0.61	Buy
04/04/19	Amfrasers	Accordia Golf Trust	0.59	0.72	Buy
05/31/19	Amfrasers	Accordia Golf Trust	0.585	0.7	Buy
08/16/19	Amfrasers	Accordia Golf Trust	0.535	0.67	Outperform	DDM

Ascendas Reit (A-Reit) - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	A-Reit	2.57	2.9	Buy
01/04/19	Phillip	A-Reit	2.57	2.78	Accumulate
01/17/19	Kim Eng	A-Reit	2.74	2.95	Buy	DDM
01/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	A-Reit	2.71	3.01	Buy
01/31/19	Phillip	A-Reit	2.72	2.88	Accumulate	DDM, PB1.34x FY19
01/31/19	CIMB	A-Reit	2.72	2.83	Add	DDM
01/31/19	OCBC	A-Reit	2.72	2.64	Hold
01/31/19	DBS Vickers	A-Reit	2.72	2.95	Buy
02/15/19	Phillip	A-Reit	2.75	2.88	Accumulate
02/28/19	Kim Eng	A-Reit	2.81	2.95	Buy
03/07/19	DMG & Partners	A-Reit	2.83	2.9	Neutral	DDM
03/07/19	CIMB	A-Reit	2.83	2.83	Add
04/04/19	Kim Eng	A-Reit	2.93	3.1	Buy
04/30/19	Kim Eng	A-Reit	3.01	3.2	Buy	DDM
04/30/19	OCBC	A-Reit	3.01	2.74	Hold
04/30/19	DMG & Partners	A-Reit	3.01	2.9	Neutral	DDM
05/02/19	Phillip	A-Reit	3	2.88	Neutral	DDM
05/02/19	CIMB	A-Reit	3	2.87	Hold	DDM
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	A-Reit	3	3.2	Buy	DCF
06/19/19	Phillip	A-Reit	2.98	2.88	Neutral
06/25/19	Kim Eng	A-Reit	3.01	3.2	Buy
06/27/19	DBS Vickers	A-Reit	3.05	3.21	Buy
07/03/19	Kim Eng	A-Reit	3.13	3.3	Buy	DDM
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	A-Reit	3.15	2.9	Neutral
07/22/19	Phillip	A-Reit	3.03	2.88	Neutral
07/30/19	DBS Vickers	A-Reit	3.05	3.4	Buy	DCF
07/30/19	OCBC	A-Reit	3.05	2.98	Hold
07/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	A-Reit	3.03	3.01	Hold	Buy @ $2.78
08/02/19	Phillip	A-Reit	3.04	3.31	Accumulate	DDM
09/11/19	UOB Kay Hian	A-Reit	3.14	3.25	Hold	DDM, Buy @ $2.98
09/19/19	Kim Eng	A-Reit	3.11	3.3	Buy
09/24/19	Phillip	A-Reit	3.12	3.31	Accumulate

Stock calls for 3 October 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
10/03/19	Kim Eng	AEM	1.12	1.5	Buy	Roe-g/Coe-g
10/03/19	CIMB	Thai Beverage	0.88	1	Add	Sum of parts
10/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	Thai Beverage	0.88	0.87	Hold

800Super - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Code	Company	Last	Target	Call	Percent	Valuation
02/13/19	Phillip	5TG	800Super	0.685	0	Cease Coverage	-100.00	DCF
06/10/19	Novus	5TG	800Super	0.89	0.9	Accept offer	1.12	offer $0.90

Yongnam - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.183	0.4	Add	PB0.8x FY19
01/07/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.183	0.41	Add	PB0.8x FY19
03/01/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.173	0.33	Add	PB0.7x FY19
04/05/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.186	0.33	Add	PB0.7x FY19
05/17/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.169	0.33	Add	PB0.7x FY19
08/15/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.171	0.28	Add

Yoma - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/12/19	DBS Vickers	Yoma	0.345	0.4	Buy
04/11/19	DMG & Partners	Yoma	0.32	0.57	Add	Sum of parts (20% discount)
06/03/19	DBS Vickers	Yoma	0.33	0.4	Buy	RNAV (60% discount)

Stock calls for 2 October 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
10/02/19	Amfrasers	ARA Hospitality	0.87	0.96	Outperform	DDM
10/02/19	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.63	1.79	Buy
10/02/19	Kim Eng	Comfortdelgro	2.41	2.76	Buy	DCF
10/02/19	DMG & Partners	CSE Global	0.46	0.69	Buy
10/02/19	Amfrasers	Eagle Hospitality Trust	0.68	0.84	outperform	DDM
10/02/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.7	2.95	Buy
10/02/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.22	0.24	Buy
10/02/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	1.26	1.45	Buy
10/02/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	1.26	1.23	Neutral	DDM
10/02/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.895	1	Buy
10/02/19	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.32	0.43	Buy
10/02/19	phillip	SGX	8.5	8.6	Accumulate	PER22x
10/02/19	OCBC	SGX	8.5	7.6	Hold
10/02/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.13	1.32	Buy
10/02/19	DMG & Partners	ST Engineering	3.85	4.7	Buy
10/02/19	DMG & Partners	Suntec Reit	1.91	2.08	Buy
10/02/19	DMG & Partners	UOB	25.9	29.5	Buy

ISM PMI declined to 47.8 in September 2019.

Many economists and analysts were wrong in their ISM PMI forecasts for September.  They predicted ISM PMI to rebound strongly in September and they were proven wrong.  Not only the ISM PMI didn't improve, but it also deteriorated further.

How did this happen? Well, many people studied economics but didn't understand economics.  Thus, they misinterpreted the economic data and reached the wrong conclusion.  This is exactly the reason why I support the use of AI for economics and finance to reduce human misinterpretations and improve prediction accuracy.

https://www.investing.com/analysis/ism-manufacturing-pmi-to-rebound-in-september-200469451

As usual, let's look at the ISM PMI in detail.

The ISM PMI flow chart:

The ISM PMI had deteriorated further from 49.1 to 47.8 and this was the 6th consecutive month of decline.  The prices increased to 49.7 because of the US-China tariffs as producers imported more raw materials from overseas instead of using more local raw materials.

The production reduction caused the supplier's deliveries, employment and inventories to decrease because the producers only manufactured to fulfill existing orders (backlog of order) and local orders due to frontloading by consumers before the impending new tariffs.

Needless to say, the upcoming US GDP and employment numbers will be extremely bad.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy-in.html

This HK rioter got shot in the chest by the police because he attacked the police.

This HK rioter deserved to be shot because he attacked the police.  The police officer had a right to protect his own life too when he was faced with a life-threatening situation.  The police should have taken a tough stance like this much earlier because we could see that other rioters ran off immediately after the man collapsed on the ground.

The HK police gave him first-aid treatment immediately after shooting him.  Well done!

Yanlord - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/01/19	OCBC	Yanlord	1.39	1.75	Buy	PER5x
04/12/19	OCBC	Yanlord	1.47	1.75	Buy	PER5x FY19
05/16/19	OCBC	Yanlord	1.44	1.68	Buy	PER5x FY19/20
05/17/19	DBS Vickers	Yanlord	1.44	1.47	Hold	PER6x FY19/20
07/15/19	OCBC	Yanlord	1.32	1.68	Buy
08/14/19	OCBC	Yanlord	1.13	1.68	Buy	PER5x FY19/20