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Monday, October 14, 2019

Stock calls for 14 October 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
10/14/19 UOB Kay Hian Propnex 0.49 0.56 Buy PER12x FY20
10/14/19 Kim Eng Sheng Siong 1.15 0.96 Sell DCF
10/14/19 OCBC SPH Reit 1.13 1.05 Hold
10/14/19 CIMB ST Engineering 4.02 4.36 Add

Sunday, October 13, 2019

Baltic dry index - 1924

Today, Friday, October 11 2019,  the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 5 points, reaching 1924 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 856

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Saturday, October 12, 2019

Is the US going to abandon Hong Kong soon?

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-us-and-china-have-reached-hollow.html

The US and China had just reached a partial trade deal.

In order for this partial trade deal to materialize, the US and China will have to negotiate and put in writing the details.  However, if the US were to continue to create chaos in HK, this trade deal might not materialize.

Therefore, the US is highly likely to abandon HK to get the trade deal done.  The US will not hesitate to abandon HK because it has just abandoned its staunch Kurds.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-usa-has-abandoned-syrian-kurds-part.html

Do not take Boeing 737 because it is a flying coffin.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/aviation-experts-blast-faa-over-131707003.html

FAA is just trying to get Boeing 737 off the ground because it is in cahoots with Boeing.  FAA is ignoring passengers' safety now.

HK finance chief is really brainless.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/hong-kong-urges-property-developers-092703886.html

How can the HK finance chief ask the landlords and property developers to cut rents for retailers when the banks don't cut the mortgage instalments for these landlords and developers?  This is a back-to-back problem.

The HK finance chief is just trying to protect the banking sector by asking the property owners to sacrifice themselves for the greater good.

My observations of the HK protests. - Part 2

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/news/no-one-showed-hong-kongs-070141921.html

Our previous analysis had come to fruition.  The protest size has shrunk!

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/my-observations-of-hk-protests.html

Without getting paid, these so-called protestors are no longer interested to protest.

The US FED will start to purchase $60b T-bills per month in mid October 2019.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-fed-buy-60-bln-153937503.html

The overnight RRP had been in chaos since September 2019 and spiked above its set range.

Why is this happening?

First of all, overnight RRP is a short-term agreement to purchase securities in order to sell back the same securities the next day (overnight) at a profit (interest earned).

When the overnight RRP spikes, it means that the buyers/investors do not have faith in the securities being offered as collaterals or there are not enough buyers/investors around in the market.

Whatever is the case, this spike denotes a bad economic or financial situation that can spill over to other financial assets and destabilize the financial market.  Therefore, the US government has to step in to stabilize the short-term situation by purchasing the T-bills to show that the securities offered are not non-performing collateralized loans.

The US and China have reached a hollow partial trade deal.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/10/11/us-stocks-poised-big-bounce-expectations-grow-us-china-trade-deal/

Nothing concrete is being announced except that China will buy more US agricultural products and the US will hold back the 15 October tariff but all the existing tariffs will still be in effect.

Therefore, this US-China trade truce is just a hollow deal and it can change anytime since Trump likes to flip-flop a lot.

Let's see how this will pan out in the future.

Friday, October 11, 2019

CapitaCommercial - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/19 Phillip CapitaCommercial 1.75 1.9 Accumulate
01/14/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.82 2.11 Buy DDM
01/24/19 OCBC CapitaCommercial 1.83 1.68 Hold
01/25/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.85 2.16 Buy DDM
01/25/19 DMG & Partners CapitaCommercial 1.85 1.86 Neutral DDM
01/25/19 DBS Vickers CapitaCommercial 1.85 2 Buy DCF
01/25/19 Lim & Tan CapitaCommercial 1.85 0 Hold
01/28/19 OCBC CapitaCommercial 1.9 1.83 Hold
01/28/19 CIMB CapitaCommercial 1.9 1.94 Add
02/15/19 Phillip CapitaCommercial 1.86 1.93 Accumulate
03/18/19 DMG & Partners CapitaCommercial 1.98 1.86 Neutral
03/26/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.92 2.16 Buy
04/22/19 Phillip CapitaCommercial 1.93 1.93 Neutral DDM, PB1.05x
04/22/19 DMG & Partners CapitaCommercial 1.93 1.86 Neutral DDM
04/22/19 OCBC CapitaCommercial 1.93 1.88 Hold
04/22/19 CIMB CapitaCommercial 1.93 2.03 Add DDM
04/22/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.93 2.16 Buy
04/22/19 DBS Vickers CapitaCommercial 1.93 2.1 Buy DCF
04/22/19 Lim & Tan CapitaCommercial 1.93 0 Hold
05/13/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.9 2.16 Buy
05/17/19 DBS Vickers CapitaCommercial 1.93 2.1 Buy DCF, PB1.15x
05/30/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.95 2.16 Buy
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 2.05 2.16 Buy
06/19/19 Phillip CapitaCommercial 2.11 1.93 Neutral
06/24/19 OCBC CapitaCommercial 2.14 1.88 Sell
07/04/19 DMG & Partners CapitaCommercial 2.23 1.86 Neutral
07/17/19 OCBC CapitaCommercial 2.18 1.88 Sell
07/17/19 Lim & Tan CapitaCommercial 2.18 0 Hold
07/18/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 2.17 2.17 Hold DDM, Buy @ $1.98
07/18/19 DBS Vickers CapitaCommercial 2.17 2.4 Buy DCF
07/18/19 Kim Eng CapitaCommercial 2.17 1.8 Hold
07/18/19 OCBC CapitaCommercial 2.17 1.92 Sell
07/18/19 CIMB CapitaCommercial 2.17 2.25 Add
07/19/19 DMG & Partners CapitaCommercial 2.15 1.98 Neutral DDM
07/22/19 Phillip CapitaCommercial 2.15 2.18 Neutral DDM
08/26/19 Phillip CapitaCommercial 2.07 2.18 Neutral
08/27/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 2.08 2.04 Hold Buy @ $1.85
08/30/19 DBS Vickers CapitaCommercial 2.13 2.3 Buy DCF
09/24/19 Phillip CapitaCommercial 2.11 2.18 Neutral
10/04/19 DBS Vickers CapitaCommercial 2.04 2.3 Buy

Cache Logistics - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/28/19 phillip Cache Logistics 0.75 0.75 Neutral DDM, PB1.14x FY19
01/28/19 DBS Vickers Cache Logistics 0.75 0.75 Hold DCF
01/28/19 OCBC Cache Logistics 0.75 0.76 Hold
01/28/19 DMG & Partners Cache Logistics 0.75 0.81 Buy DDM
01/28/19 CIMB Cache Logistics 0.75 0.74 Hold
01/28/19 Kim Eng Cache Logistics 0.75 0.85 Buy
02/15/19 phillip Cache Logistics 0.71 0.75 Neutral
03/18/19 DMG & Partners Cache Logistics 0.72 0.81 Buy
04/18/19 OCBC Cache Logistics 0.72 0.7 Hold
04/26/19 OCBC Cache Logistics 0.745 0.74 Hold
04/26/19 Kim Eng Cache Logistics 0.745 0.88 Buy
04/26/19 DBS Vickers Cache Logistics 0.745 0.75 Hold DCF
04/26/19 CIMB Cache Logistics 0.745 0.74 Hold
06/17/19 DMG & Partners Cache Logistics 0.77 0.83 Buy DDM
06/17/19 CIMB Cache Logistics 0.77 0.78 Hold DDM
06/19/19 phillip Cache Logistics 0.79 0.75 Neutral
07/04/19 DMG & Partners Cache Logistics 0.785 0.83 Buy
07/19/19 DBS Vickers Cache Logistics 0.78 0.75 Hold DCF
07/22/19 phillip Cache Logistics 0.785 0.75 Neutral
07/26/19 Kim Eng Cache Logistics 0.765 0.9 Buy DDM
07/26/19 DMG & Partners Cache Logistics 0.765 0.8 Buy DDM
07/26/19 CIMB Cache Logistics 0.765 0.76 Hold DDM
08/26/19 phillip Cache Logistics 0.725 0.75 Neutral
09/24/19 phillip Cache Logistics 0.735 0.75 Neutral

Bumitama - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/03/19 UOB Kay Hian Bumitama 0.67 0.81 Buy
02/12/19 UOB Kay Hian Bumitama 0.685 0.81 Buy PER11x FY19
02/21/19 Kim Eng Bumitama 0.69 0.96 Buy
02/26/19 DMG & Partners Bumitama 0.67 0.67 Neutral PER11x FY19
02/27/19 Kim Eng Bumitama 0.675 0.97 Buy PER13x FY19
02/28/19 DBS Vickers Bumitama 0.665 0.85 Buy DCF, PER13.9x FY19
04/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Bumitama 0.725 0.81 Buy
05/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Bumitama 0.69 0.81 Buy
05/15/19 DBS Vickers Bumitama 0.69 0.8 Buy DCF, PER18x FY19
05/17/19 DMG & Partners Bumitama 0.7 0.62 Neutral
05/24/19 UOB Kay Hian Bumitama 0.69 0.81 Hold
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Bumitama 0.665 0.62 Neutral
06/27/19 UOB Kay Hian Bumitama 0.615 0.81 Buy
07/02/19 Kim Eng Bumitama 0.63 1.01 Buy
07/16/19 DBS Vickers Bumitama 0.605 0.75 Buy DCF
08/14/19 DMG & Partners Bumitama 0.6 0.54 Neutral PER14x FY20
08/15/19 DBS Vickers Bumitama 0.59 0.69 Buy DCF, PER18.5x FY19
08/28/19 Kim Eng Bumitama 0.575 0.8 Buy
09/30/19 DMG & Partners Bumitama 0.58 0.6 Neutral PER16x FY20

Stock calls for 11 October 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
10/11/19 CIMB A-Reit 3.15 3.12 Hold
10/11/19 Amfrasers AEM 1.16 1.34 Outperform PER11x FY20
10/11/19 Phillip ART 1.31 1.42 Accumulate
10/11/19 Phillip Capitaland 3.51 4.2 Buy
10/11/19 UOB Kay Hian CSE Global 0.465 0.65 Buy
10/11/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.9 0.97 Neutral
10/11/19 DBS Vickers Manulife US Reit 0.905 1.1 Buy DCF
10/11/19 Phillip Netlink 0.91 0.93 Accumulate
10/11/19 phillip Propnex 0.49 0.59 Buy
10/11/19 phillip Sheng Siong 1.16 1.3 Accumulate
10/11/19 Phillip Singtel 3.15 3.45 Accumulate
10/11/19 CIMB SPH Reit 1.11 1.09 Hold DDM
10/11/19 DBS Vickers SPH Reit 1.11 1.25 Buy DCF
10/11/19 Kim Eng SPH Reit 1.11 1.1 Hold DDM
10/11/19 UOB Kay Hian Valuetronics 0.615 0.8 Buy PER11x FY20
10/11/19 Phillip Venture 15.17 17.68 Buy

Thursday, October 10, 2019

Breadtalk - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/21/19 DBS Vickers Breadtalk 0.88 0.92 Hold Sum of parts
02/21/19 DMG & Partners Breadtalk 0.88 0.81 Neutral Sum of parts
04/05/19 DMG & Partners Breadtalk 0.87 0.81 Neutral
05/07/19 DBS Vickers Breadtalk 0.835 0.92 Hold
05/08/19 DMG & Partners Breadtalk 0.825 0.81 Neutral Sum of parts
07/02/19 DMG & Partners Breadtalk 0.75 0.81 Neutral
08/02/19 DBS Vickers Breadtalk 0.715 0.77 Hold Sum of parts
08/05/19 DMG & Partners Breadtalk 0.69 0.71 Neutral Sum of parts
09/03/19 DMG & Partners Breadtalk 0.665 0.71 Neutral
09/04/19 DMG & Partners Breadtalk 0.65 0.67 Neutral Sum of parts, EV/Ebitda7.64x
09/06/19 DBS Vickers Breadtalk 0.645 0.61 Hold Sum of parts

BRC Asia - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
07/31/19 UOB Kay Hian BRC Asia 1.37 1.75 Buy PER11.5x FY20
08/08/19 UOB Kay Hian BRC Asia 1.31 1.75 Buy PER11.5x FY20
10/01/19 UOB Kay Hian BRC Asia 1.34 1.75 Buy

Boustead - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
09/23/19 CIMB Boustead 0.735 1 Add Sum of parts

Stock calls for 10 October 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
10/10/19 DMG & Partners A-Reit 3.12 3 Neutral DDM
10/10/19 Amfrasers China Sunsine 1.12 1.4 Outperform DCF
10/10/19 Kim Eng Hi-P 1.19 1.21 Hold PB1.5x FY19
10/10/19 SAC Advisors Interra Resources 0.026 0.089 Buy EV/IP reserves 6.4x
10/10/19 UOB Kay Hian Mapletree Industrial 2.5 2.69 Buy
10/10/19 Kim Eng Singtel 3.14 3.44 Hold Sum of parts
10/10/19 DBS Vickers Singtel 3.14 3.12 Hold EV/Ebitda6x

PM Lee: Choosing between US and China will be painful.

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/choosing-between-us-or-china-will-be-painful-says-pm-lee-cnn-interview

It is not a difficult decision to know which side to choose.  Why?

The US is NEVER a trustworthy country.  Just look at the Kurds.  They fought and died for the US and were easily abandoned by the US after outliving their usefulness.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-usa-has-abandoned-syrian-kurds-part.html

Singaporeans, do you want to suffer the same fate as the Kurds?  The US will have no qualms to abandon SG because we have never fought side by side with the US before.  The US is only interested to sell their weapons to SG!

Furthermore, our neighbour (Malaysia) had chosen China and SG would be on a collision course with Malaysia if we were to side the US.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/singapore-is-heading-towards-political.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/a-pro-china-malaysia-is-threat-to.html

In conclusion, it is a no brainer decision but our government is just blindsided.  We need to know what's at stake here.  Malaysia is just next door but the US is so far away.

The US-China trade talk in Washington broke down again!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-u-china-made-no-231817051.html

This is expected because the US increased the tension prior to the trade talk.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-us-china-tension-is-rising-rapidly.html

What was the US thinking?

When will China reduce its interest rates? - Part 2

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3032210/china-relaxes-grip-mortgage-rates-and-shanghai-jumps-cut

China has introduced a new property measure by giving empowerment to provincial banks to decide their own mortgage rates.  This is an uncanny central government policy because this involves a big leap of faith in the provincial mayors to rein in their property markets.

Therefore, the central government has also implemented data authenticity accountability as a check and balance measure.  In other words, the provincial mayors and their employees will be punished for fudging their statistics.

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201910/09/WS5d9d17bea310cf3e3556f42c.html

We had stated previously that China would only cut its official interest rates after figuring out how to rein in its property prices.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/when-will-china-reduce-its-interest.html

I guess I am the only one who said what China must do first before cutting its official interest rates.

Nevertheless,  China has staged itself up for an upcoming interest rate cut because China cannot alienate itself from the global rate-cutting frenzy.