Singapore Nodx fell 5.9% in November 2019.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/12/17/singapore039s-nov-exports-slide-59-in-line-with-forecasts

Year on year changes (YOY):

November 2019: - 5.9%

October 2019: - 12.3%

September 2019: -8.1%

August 2019: - 8.9%

July 2019: -11.2%

June 2019: -17.3%

May 2019: -15.9%

April 2019: -10%

March 2019: -11.7%

February 2019: 4.9%

January 2019: -10.1%

December 2018: -8.5%

November 2018: -2.6%

October 2018: 8.3%

September 2018: 8.3%

August 2018: 5%

July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)

June 2018: 1.1%

May 2018: 15.5%

April 2018: 11.8%

March 2018: -2.7%

February 2018: -5.9%

January 2018: 13%

December 2017: 3.1%

November 2017: 9.1%

October 2017: 20.9%

September 2017: -1.1%

August 2017: 16.7%

July 2017: 8.5%

June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/11/singapore-nodx-fell-123-in-october.html

Singapore Post - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Post	0.965	1.04	Hold	Sum of parts
02/04/19	CIMB	Singapore Post	0.965	1.03	Hold	DCF
02/04/19	DBS Vickers	Singapore Post	0.965	0.92	Hold	DCF
02/04/19	Lim & Tan	Singapore Post	0.965	0	Hold
02/04/19	OCBC	Singapore Post	0.965	1.23	Buy
02/08/19	OCBC	Singapore Post	0.955	1	Hold
02/08/19	CLSA	Singapore Post	0.955	1.17	Buy
04/04/19	OCBC	Singapore Post	0.995	1	Hold
04/08/19	CIMB	Singapore Post	1.03	1.2	Add	DCF, PER18.2x FY21
05/08/19	OCBC	Singapore Post	1.01	1	Hold
05/08/19	CIMB	Singapore Post	1.01	1.17	Add	DCF
05/08/19	DBS Vickers	Singapore Post	1.01	0.96	Hold	DCF
05/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Post	0.99	1.06	Hold	Buy @ $0.95
07/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Post	0.965	1.04	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $0.88
08/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Post	0.965	1.04	Hold	Sum of parts
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	Singapore Post	0.965	0.96	Hold
08/05/19	Lim & Tan	Singapore Post	0.965	0	Hold
08/07/19	OCBC	Singapore Post	0.945	1	Hold
09/19/19	OCBC	Singapore Post	0.93	1	Hold
09/20/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Post	0.92	1.04	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $0.90
09/20/19	DBS Vickers	Singapore Post	0.92	0.96	Hold
10/31/19	DBS Vickers	Singapore Post	0.96	0.96	Hold
11/04/19	CIMB	Singapore Post	0.965	1.13	Add	DCF
11/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Post	0.955	1.04	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $0.88
11/05/19	DBS Vickers	Singapore Post	0.955	0.96	Hold	DCF
11/05/19	OCBC	Singapore Post	0.955	1.02	Hold

Singapore O&G - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/23/19	phillip	Singapore O&G	0.34	0.42	Buy
02/21/19	phillip	Singapore O&G	0.355	0	Cease Coverage

Singapore Medical - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.4	0.56	Buy
02/21/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Medical	0.47	0.65	Buy	PER23x FY19
02/21/19	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.47	0.54	Buy	DCF
05/10/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Medical	0.445	0.62	Buy	PER23x FY19
05/10/19	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.445	0.48	Neutral	DCF
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.385	0.48	Neutral	DCF
06/07/19	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.38	0.48	Buy	DCF
08/08/19	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.37	0.48	Buy	DCF
10/15/19	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.305	0.48	Buy
11/13/19	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.325	0.36	Neutral	DCF, PER13.4x

Stock calls for 16 December 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
12/16/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.505	0.6	Buy
12/16/19	DMG & Partners	City Developments	10.7	10.5	Neutral
12/16/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.67	3.11	Buy
12/16/19	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.35	0.43	Buy
12/16/19	Phillip	Singtel	3.39	3.53	Accumulate	Sum of parts
12/16/19	DBS Vickers	Sunpower	0.59	0.81	Buy	DCF

Baltic dry index - 1355

Today, Friday, December 13 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 33 points, reaching 1355 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

======================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean

US rig count - 799

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Silverlake - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.415	0.65	Buy	DCF
01/03/19	DBS Vickers	Silverlake	0.405	0.6	Buy	PER21x FY19
01/07/19	DBS Vickers	Silverlake	0.425	0.62	Buy	PER21x FY19
02/01/19	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.485	0.65	Buy	DCF
02/15/19	DBS Vickers	Silverlake	0.515	0.62	Buy	PER21x FY19
03/01/19	CIMB	Silverlake	0.57	0.62	Add	Sum of parts, PER19x CY20
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.555	0.65	Buy	DCF
05/07/19	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.61	0.65	Buy	DCF
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	Silverlake	0.52	0.63	Buy	PER21x FY19
05/16/19	CIMB	Silverlake	0.52	0.58	Add
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.53	0.65	Buy	DCF
08/01/19	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.52	0.65	Buy	DCF
08/26/19	CIMB	Silverlake	0.51	0.53	Hold
08/26/19	DBS Vickers	Silverlake	0.51	0.6	Buy	PER21x FY20
09/05/19	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.455	0.56	Buy	DCF
10/08/19	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.44	0.56	Buy
11/15/19	DBS Vickers	Silverlake	0.44	0.57	Buy	PER21x FY20
11/18/19	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.43	0.46	Neutral	DCF
12/10/19	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.41	0.46	Neutral

SIIC - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/21/19	DBS Vickers	SIIC	0.29	0.32	Hold	PER13x FY19
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	SIIC	0.235	0.265	Hold

SIA Engineering - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/07/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA Engineering	2.39	2.7	Buy	DCF
02/11/19	Kim Eng	SIA Engineering	2.52	2.85	Buy	DCF
02/11/19	OCBC	SIA Engineering	2.52	2.47	Hold
02/11/19	phillip	SIA Engineering	2.52	2.66	Neutral	DCF
02/11/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA Engineering	2.52	2.55	Hold
02/12/19	CIMB	SIA Engineering	2.39	3.11	Add	DCF
02/12/19	DBS Vickers	SIA Engineering	2.39	2.7	Hold	DCF & PER16x FY20 & Div Yield 4.5% & EV/Ebitda11x
04/15/19	Kim Eng	SIA Engineering	2.49	2.85	Buy
05/14/19	Kim Eng	SIA Engineering	2.43	2.85	Buy	DCF
05/14/19	OCBC	SIA Engineering	2.43	2.43	Hold
05/14/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA Engineering	2.43	2.55	Hold	Buy @ $2.30
05/14/19	DBS Vickers	SIA Engineering	2.43	2.6	Hold	Sum of parts
05/14/19	CIMB	SIA Engineering	2.43	3.11	Add
07/02/19	Kim Eng	SIA Engineering	2.51	2.85	Buy
07/05/19	DBS Vickers	SIA Engineering	2.72	3.01	Buy
07/08/19	CIMB	SIA Engineering	2.89	3.11	Add	DCF
07/29/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA Engineering	2.65	2.55	Hold	DCF, Buy @ $2.40
07/29/19	OCBC	SIA Engineering	2.65	2.43	Hold
07/30/19	Kim Eng	SIA Engineering	2.68	2.85	Hold
09/02/19	Kim Eng	SIA Engineering	2.43	2.85	Buy	DCF
11/04/19	Lim & Tan	SIA Engineering	2.65	0	Hold
11/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA Engineering	2.77	3.13	Buy
11/05/19	DBS Vickers	SIA Engineering	2.77	3.3	Buy	Sum of parts
11/05/19	OCBC	SIA Engineering	2.77	2.86	Hold
11/05/19	CIMB	SIA Engineering	2.77	3.3	Add	DCF
11/26/19	Kim Eng	SIA Engineering	2.85	3	Buy

Stock calls for 13 December 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
12/13/19	Lim & Tan	Fu Yu	0.25	0	Buy
12/13/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	1	1.1	Buy	DDM
12/13/19	Lim & Tan	Sunningdale	1.28	0	Buy
12/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Unusual	0.28	0.44	Buy

The 15 Dec tariffs between the US & China are halted.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-approves-us-china-trade-deal-to-halt-dec-15-tariffs-034516939.html

It is a piece of good news to halt the 15 Dec tariffs so that we all can enjoy our festive seasons like X'mas and New Year.

However, I'm not optimistic about the signing of the agreement because the US is forcing China to buy US$50B worth of farm products especially the soybeans.  This US$50B is double what China bought in the previous year and far exceeded China's demands.  China had already signed soybean purchase orders from Brazil, Argentina, Russia and also started to plant its own hybrid soybeans.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/10/trump-has-fallen-into-chinas-gambit.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/trump-is-in-trouble-because-china-is-no.html

Therefore, it will be impossible for China to purchase US$50B of farm products since there is no such demand and soybeans are perishable goods.  China also won't put its food supplies in the hands of the US because food is a strategic supply.  The bottom line is China doesn't want its people to go hungry during any US-China confrontation.

SIA - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/17/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.76	10.2	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $9
01/24/19	Kim Eng	SIA	9.5	11.2	Buy	PB0.94x
01/24/19	CIMB	SIA	9.5	10.25	Hold	PB0.9x CY19
02/15/19	CIMB	SIA	9.87	10.25	Hold	PB0.9x CY19
02/15/19	DBS Vickers	SIA	9.87	11	Buy	PB0.9x FY20
02/15/19	Lim & Tan	SIA	9.87	0	Hold
02/18/19	Kim Eng	SIA	9.76	11.2	Buy	PB0.94x
02/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.76	10.2	Hold	Buy @ $9.50
02/18/19	OCBC	SIA	9.76	10.71	Buy
03/19/19	CIMB	SIA	9.83	10.25	Hold
03/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.83	10.1	Hold	Buy @ $9
04/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.88	10.1	Hold	Sum of parts
04/16/19	OCBC	SIA	9.88	11.02	Buy
05/17/19	CIMB	SIA	9.4	10.14	Hold	PB0.9x CY19
05/21/19	OCBC	SIA	9.3	11.02	Buy
05/21/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.3	9.6	Hold	Buy @ $8.80
05/21/19	DBS Vickers	SIA	9.3	10.8	Buy	PB0.95x FY20
06/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.17	9.5	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $8.60
06/19/19	CIMB	SIA	9.17	10.04	Hold
08/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.67	9.5	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $9.10
08/01/19	DBS Vickers	SIA	9.67	10.8	Buy	PB0.95x FY20
08/01/19	Lim & Tan	SIA	9.67	0	Hold
08/02/19	CIMB	SIA	9.2	10.04	Hold	PB0.9x CY19
09/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.15	9.5	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $8.70
10/17/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.16	9.5	Hold	Buy @ $9
11/06/19	CIMB	SIA	9.43	10	Hold	PB0.9x CY19
11/06/19	Kim Eng	SIA	9.43	10.7	Buy	PB1x FY21
11/07/19	OCBC	SIA	9.18	10.46	Buy
11/07/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.18	9.4	Hold	Buy @ $8.70
11/07/19	DBS Vickers	SIA	9.18	10.4	Buy	PB0.95x FY20

SHS - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/29/19	phillip	SHS	0.197	0.24	Accumulate	PER10x FY19
03/08/19	phillip	SHS	0.191	0.194	Neutral	PB0.7x
05/21/19	phillip	SHS	0.174	0	Cease coverage

Sheng Siong - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.06	1.27	Buy
01/04/19	phillip	Sheng Siong	1.07	1.13	Accumulate
02/20/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sheng Siong	1.08	1.15	Hold
02/27/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.09	1.25	Buy	DCF
02/27/19	OCBC	Sheng Siong	1.09	1.19	Buy
02/27/19	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	1.09	1.25	Buy	PER25x FY19
02/27/19	CIMB	Sheng Siong	1.09	1.22	Add	PER22.2x FY20
02/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sheng Siong	1.09	1.11	Hold
03/04/19	phillip	Sheng Siong	1.09	1.3	Accumulate	PER25x
03/05/19	Amfrasers	Sheng Siong	1.09	1.24	Buy
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.08	1.25	Buy	DCF
03/19/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.08	0.95	Sell	DCF, PER19.5x FY19
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.25	Buy
04/16/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.06	0.95	Sell	DCF
04/29/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.11	Hold	Buy @ $1
04/29/19	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.25	Buy	PER5x FY19
04/30/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.23	Buy	DCF & PER21x
04/30/19	CIMB	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.1	Hold	PER20.5x CY20
04/30/19	Amfrasers	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.24	Buy	DCF
04/30/19	OCBC	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.19	Buy
05/02/19	phillip	Sheng Siong	1.03	1.3	Buy	PER25x
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.1	1.23	Buy
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	1.1	1.25	Buy
06/14/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.09	0.95	Sell	DCF
07/02/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.1	1.23	Buy
07/15/19	phillip	Sheng Siong	1.1	1.3	Buy	PER25x
07/16/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.09	0.95	Sell	DCF
07/30/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.11	1.32	Buy	DCF
07/30/19	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	1.11	1.32	Buy	PER25x FY20
07/31/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.15	0.96	Sell	DCF
07/31/19	OCBC	Sheng Siong	1.15	1.19	Buy
07/31/19	CIMB	Sheng Siong	1.15	1.25	Add
08/01/19	phillip	Sheng Siong	1.16	1.3	Accumulate	PER25x FY19
08/06/19	Amfrasers	Sheng Siong	1.16	1.27	Outperform
08/13/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.18	0.96	Sell	DCF
08/23/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.16	1.32	Buy
09/11/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.2	1.32	Buy
10/01/19	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	1.11	1.32	Buy	PER25x FY20
10/02/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.13	1.32	Buy	DCF
10/11/19	phillip	Sheng Siong	1.16	1.3	Accumulate
10/14/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.15	0.96	Sell	DCF
11/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sheng Siong	1.17	1.27	Hold	Buy @ $1.14
11/01/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.17	1.32	Buy
11/01/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.17	1	Sell	DCF
11/01/19	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	1.17	1.32	Buy
11/04/19	phillip	Sheng Siong	1.18	1.32	Accumulate	PER25x
11/04/19	Amfrasers	Sheng Siong	1.18	1.35	Outperform
11/04/19	CIMB	Sheng Siong	1.18	1.3	Add	PER22.5x CY20
11/04/19	OCBC	Sheng Siong	1.18	1.21	Hold
12/10/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.24	1.39	Buy	DCF

Stock calls for 12 December 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
12/12/19	DBS Vickers	Hongkong Land	5.47	6.64	Buy	RNAV (45% discount)
12/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	Rex	0.167	0.218	Buy	Sum of parts, PB1.1x FY20

Hong Kong financial hub will be undermined by upcoming Shenzhen and Macau.

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/china-focus/protest-free-macau-win-financial-policy-rewards-china

China is trying to make Macau another financial hub by giving it some favourable policies.  However, I think that Shenzhen has a better chance to displace HK than Macau.  When China doesn't support HK anymore, HK will definitely fall from its grace.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/11/hong-kong-is-financial-hub-because-of.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/omg-china-has-displaced-hong-kong-with.html

Why is Shenzhen (SZ) a better choice?

First of all, we need to understand what makes a country a financial hub.  In order to be a financial hub, a country has to be an open economy in order to be an international trading centre.  International trading is a prerequisite to be a financial hub because it will engender many financial services like forex trading, insurance services, etc.  Singapore and HK are financial hubs because both countries have the busiest ports in the world to generate a lot of trading activities.

Besides being the 3rd busiest port in the world, Shenzhen is also a technological hub whereby many technology companies set up their HQ there.  Thus, it is so much easier for SZ to be a financial hub to displace HK.

How is China's economy doing?

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/etfs-focus-trade-tussle-dampens-214809679.html

For a consumption-led economy like China, import matters more than export.  Why?

From a simplistic perspective, the export number reflects "yesterday" demand and the import figure reflects "tomorrow" demand.

Therefore, I expect China's PMI to continue to expand because the importers are anticipating higher demand ahead and also the de-americanization will help to boost the local industries.

The US does not practise the human rights that it preached.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/immigration-officials-stop-doctors-giving-014039953.html

The US government stopped doctors from saving children from preventable deaths.

Amnesty International is turning a blind eye to this!

Shangri-La Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/21/19	OCBC	Shangri-La Asia	11.04	16.4	Buy
03/22/19	OCBC	Shangri-La Asia	11.18	16.16	Buy
08/26/19	OCBC	Shangri-La Asia	8.3	13.9	Buy