The upcoming US GDP will be a better number but it is an illusion. Why?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/07/us-trade-deficit-at-43point09b-in-november-vs-43point6b-estimate.html

The most recent US deficit fell to its lowest level under Trump's presidency because of the huge reduction in imports.  Being a consumption-led economy (70% of GDP), this doesn't bode well for the US because import is a precursor of local consumption.

Please read our post on China to understand the importance of imports since China is also a consumption-led economy.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/12/how-is-chinas-economy-doing.html

The reduction in imports usually signals a future reduction in consumption.  Since import is part of the GDP formula, the decline in imports will boost the GDP figure.

Please read our post on the GDP calculation.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/11/the-latest-us-gdp-growth-is-not.html

Avi-Tech - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/07/19	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.3	0.34	Neutral
02/14/19	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.29	0.3	Neutral	DCF
03/19/19	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.29	0.3	Neutral
07/16/19	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.28	0.27	Neutral	DCF
08/29/19	Lim & Tan	Avi-Tech	0.27	0	Buy
09/10/19	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.31	0.31	Neutral	DCF
10/08/19	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.34	0.31	Neutral
11/07/19	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.35	0.41	Buy	DCF
12/10/19	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.4	0.44	Buy	DCF

Ascendas India Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/25/19	Jefferies	Ascendas India Trust	1.08	1.2	Buy
01/28/19	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.08	1.25	Buy	DDM
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.13	1.25	Buy
04/29/19	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.27	1.4	Buy	DDM
07/29/19	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.42	1.55	Buy
10/25/19	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.55	1.65	Buy	DDM
12/19/19	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.53	1.65	Buy

Ascendas Hospitality Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/30/19	DBS Vickers	Ascendas Hospitality Trust	0.835	0.98	Buy	DCF
07/04/19	DBS Vickers	Ascendas Hospitality Trust	1.04	1.21	Buy	Pegged to ART

Stock calls for 8 January 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/08/20	DMG & Partners	Capitaland	3.84	4.2	Buy
01/08/20	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.63	1.78	Buy
01/08/20	CIMB	Centurion	0.44	0.61	Add	DCF
01/08/20	UOB Kay Hian	CSE Global	0.56	0.7	Buy
01/08/20	DMG & Partners	CSE Global	0.56	0.69	Buy
01/08/20	CIMB	DBS	26.05	28.29	Add
01/08/20	Kim Eng	DBS	26.05	29.92	Buy
01/08/20	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.255	0.27	Buy
01/08/20	DMG & Partners	Keppel Corp	6.84	7.8	Buy
01/08/20	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.99	1.1	Buy
01/08/20	CIMB	OCBC	11	11.94	Hold
01/08/20	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.375	0.43	Buy
01/08/20	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.26	1.39	Buy
01/08/20	DMG & Partners	ST Engineering	4.02	4.55	Buy
01/08/20	DMG & Partners	Unusual	0.285	0.42	Buy
01/08/20	CIMB	UOB	26.7	29.1	Add
01/08/20	DMG & Partners	UOB	26.7	29.5	Buy
01/08/20	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	4.29	4.75	Buy

Iran has retaliated against the US by attacking 2 US bases in Iraq.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/thousands-prepare-bury-iranian-general-050819484.html

We had stated that Iran would retaliate against the US even though Trump gave a stern warning to Iran that the US would attack 52 targets including cultural sites in Iran if Iran retaliated against the US for the killing of the Iranian top general.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/01/the-recession-constellation-is-aligning.html

The ball is in the US court now.  The US and Iran would enter into a vicious cycle of retaliation if the US retaliated again.  The US had no proper justification to kill the Iranian top general in Iraq in the first place.  This unjustified killing had irked and angered the Iraqis and Iranians which prompted the Iraqi parliament to expel the US forces in Iraq.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/01/the-truth-behind-us-killing-of-top.html

Boeing 737 crashed again!

https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-airplane-180-aboard-crashes-034030181.html

We had already warned that the Boeing 737 model was a flying coffin on numerous postings.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/11/do-not-take-boeing-737-because-it-is.html

ART - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/10/19	OCBC	ART	1.1	1.18	Buy
01/10/19	CIMB	ART	1.1	1.13	Hold	DDM
01/11/19	DBS Vickers	ART	1.11	1.25	Buy
01/30/19	OCBC	ART	1.19	1.25	Buy
01/30/19	DBS Vickers	ART	1.19	1.35	Buy	DCF
03/05/19	OCBC	ART	1.14	1.25	Buy
03/05/19	CIMB	ART	1.14	1.15	Hold
03/29/19	Lim & Tan	ART	1.18	0	Hold	BV
04/09/19	Phillip	ART	1.18	1.36	Buy	DDM, PB0.94x FY19
04/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.2	1.46	Buy	DDM
04/15/19	OCBC	ART	1.2	1.25	Hold
05/02/19	OCBC	ART	1.2	1.25	Hold
05/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.2	1.46	Buy
05/03/19	DBS Vickers	ART	1.2	1.35	Buy	DCF
05/06/19	Phillip	ART	1.21	1.36	Buy	DDM
06/10/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.27	1.46	Buy
06/19/19	Phillip	ART	1.31	1.36	Buy
06/25/19	OCBC	ART	1.3	1.25	Hold
07/04/19	OCBC	ART	1.28	1.31	Hold
07/04/19	CIMB	ART	1.28	1.15	Hold	DDM
07/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.28	1.46	Buy
07/05/19	Phillip	ART	1.31	1.36	Accumulate	DDM
07/31/19	CIMB	ART	1.3	1.31	Hold	DDM
07/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.3	1.54	Buy
07/31/19	DBS Vickers	ART	1.3	1.45	Buy
08/02/19	DIR	ART	1.32	1.34	Outperform
08/02/19	Kim Eng	ART	1.32	1.3	Hold
08/02/19	Phillip	ART	1.32	1.36	Accumulate	DDM
08/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.3	1.54	Buy
09/24/19	Phillip	ART	1.31	1.36	Accumulate
10/09/19	DBS Vickers	ART	1.32	1.45	Buy
10/11/19	Phillip	ART	1.31	1.42	Accumulate
10/22/19	OCBC	ART	1.37	1.31	Hold
10/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.4	1.66	Buy	DDM
11/01/19	Kim Eng	ART	1.38	1.35	Hold	DDM
11/04/19	CIMB	ART	1.37	1.34	Hold
11/04/19	OCBC	ART	1.37	1.41	Hold
11/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.31	1.66	Buy	DDM
11/25/19	Phillip	ART	1.32	1.36	Accumulate
11/25/19	DBS Vickers	ART	1.32	1.45	Buy
12/19/19	Kim Eng	ART	1.35	1.4	Hold	DDM

ARA Hospitality - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	ARA Hospitality	0.87	1.15	Buy
07/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	ARA Hospitality	0.885	1.15	Buy
08/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	ARA Hospitality	0.885	1.21	Buy	DDM
10/02/19	Amfrasers	ARA Hospitality	0.87	0.96	Outperform	DDM
11/07/19	UOB Kay Hian	ARA Hospitality	0.86	1.16	Buy	DDM
11/07/19	Amfrasers	ARA Hospitality	0.86	0.99	Outperform	DDM
12/02/19	Amfrasers	ARA Hospitality	0.855	0.99	Outperform	DDM

APTV - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/01/19	Phillip	APTV	0.13	0.14	Accumulate
05/16/19	Phillip	APTV	0.178	0.16	Reduce	EV/Ebitda11x
08/19/19	Phillip	APTV	0.17	0.165	Neutral	EV/Ebitda9.5x
11/12/19	Phillip	APTV	0.171	0.165	Neutral	EV/Ebitda9.5x

Stock calls for 7 January 2020

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Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/07/20	DMG & Partners	ESR-Reit	0.545	0.6	Buy	DDM

The accuracy of an economic forecast is always questionable.

We need to take economic forecasts by reputable firms with a heavy pinch of salt.  Why?

Let's take a look at Singapore's economic growth by ICAEW and Oxford Economics (OE).

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/trade-war-hit-singapore-most-se-asia-recession-2020-possibility

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-economy-gdp-2019-q4-mti-12226222

ICAEW & OE forecast : 1.9% for 2019
Actual GDP growth : 0.7% for 2019

The actual result (0.7%) is only 37% of the forecast (1.9%).  This shows that forecasting firms are too optimistic about the economic situation in spite of the ongoing US-China trade war.

APAC Realty - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/12/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.5	0.72	Buy
02/12/19	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.5	0.56	Hold
03/01/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.57	0.72	Buy	DCF
03/01/19	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.57	0.7	Buy	PER12x
04/04/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.615	0.72	Buy	RNAV
05/07/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.555	0.72	Buy
05/14/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.545	0.67	Buy	DCF
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.525	0.58	Hold	PER10x
06/03/19	Phillip	APAC Realty	0.5	0.65	Buy	DCF
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.5	0.67	Buy
06/07/19	CIMB	APAC Realty	0.51	0.67	Add
07/15/19	Phillip	APAC Realty	0.545	0.65	Buy	DCF
08/06/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.525	0.65	Buy	DCF
08/06/19	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.525	0.48	Hold	PER10x FY20
08/08/19	Phillip	APAC Realty	0.515	0.58	Buy	DCF
08/13/19	CIMB	APAC Realty	0.51	0.6	Add	PER10x FY20
09/12/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.495	0.65	Buy
11/14/19	CIMB	APAC Realty	0.515	0.66	Add	DCF
11/14/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.515	0.6	Buy	DCF
11/14/19	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.515	0.46	Hold	PER12x FY20
11/18/19	Phillip	APAC Realty	0.5	0.55	Accumulate	DCF
12/16/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.505	0.6	Buy

Amara - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/05/19	DMG & Partners	Amara	0.46	0.88	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
12/11/19	DMG & Partners	Amara	0.45	0.88	Buy

AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/25/19	Kim Eng	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.42	1.5	Buy	DDM
04/25/19	DBS Vickers	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.42	1.5	Buy	DCF
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.4	1.5	Buy	DCF
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.46	1.5	Buy	DCF
07/25/19	Lim & Tan	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.47	0	Hold
07/26/19	Kim Eng	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.47	1.6	Buy	DDM
11/07/19	DBS Vickers	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.4	1.5	Buy	DCF

Stock calls for 6 January 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/06/20	DBS Vickers	Delfi	1	1.51	Buy
01/06/20	DBS Vickers	Koufu	0.775	0.88	Buy
01/06/20	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	1.3	1.32	Buy
01/06/20	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	2.15	2.3	Hold	Sum of parts
01/06/20	DBS Vickers	Thai Beverage	0.895	1.04	Buy

The truth behind the US killing of top Iranian commander.

Why did the US kill the top Iranian commander?

Well, this is the real scoop.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/10/when-us-says-it-is-deploying-its-troops.html

Firstly, the US plundered the Syrian oil field and profited around US$30m.  The US troops based in Iraq went over to Syria to conduct this unscrupulous misdeed.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iraq-rocket-attack-us-military-death-latest-a9262121.html

Then, the Iran-backed fighters fired 30 rockets at the US base in Iraq to take revenge for Syria.  Thereafter, Trump ordered the drone attack against the top Iranian general in Iraq in retaliation without informing Iraq.

The US stole Syrian oil and suffered the consequences but couldn't take it down and proceeded to kill the Iranian general.  Where is the justice in this?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50979463

Baltic dry index - 907

Today, Friday, January 03 2020, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 69 points, reaching 907 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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Related stock: Sembcor Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 796

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

The recession constellation is aligning in the US! - Part 2

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/12/the-recession-constellation-are.html

1. Tltro II will expire in March 2020.
2. ISM PMI reported its first contraction for August (Below 50) in September. The US recession may happen at the earliest 6 months later which is in March 2020.
3. The Republicans want to remove its President by March 2020. Nancy Pelosi just needs to get some Republicans to deflect to impeach Trump.
4. The opec+ will end the oil production cut in March 2020.  This will affect the US shale oil industry because the US has been gaining the oil market share at the expense of opec+.
5. Iran's retaliation against the US for the latest airstrike.

Iran will definitely retaliate but the severity of the retaliation is a big uncertain for the US market.