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Tuesday, February 4, 2020

Guangzhou has fallen!

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-02-03/Coronavirus-detected-on-doorknob-in-S-China-s-Guangzhou-NMua1LcOWY/index.html

The coronavirus has spread to Guangzhou.

It looks like community transmission has occurred in China.

China is trying very hard to keep Beijing safe now.  All hell will break loose if Beijing cannot be free from the virus outbreak.

China can stabilize its stock markets but not the real economy.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-market-regulator-guidance/china-regulator-urges-fund-managers-not-to-sell-shares-unless-they-face-redemptions-sources-idUSKBN1ZX0C4

China is trying to stabilize its financial sector by asking fund managers not to sell stocks and also pump monetary liquidity into its financial system.  Although China will be able to rein in the financial repercussions from the virus outbreak, the real economy will be badly affected because consumption will drop into the abyss.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-oil-demand-plunged-20-231351018.html

China's oil demand had plunged by 20% since the start of the outbreak.

The other sectors like retail, tourism, F&B, transportation, etc, are all badly affected because the Chinese are trying to cut down on human interactions.  When there is no human activity, there is no economic value.  Any monetary or fiscal policy will be useless in stimulating the economy unless the virus can be contained or eliminated.

The whole world will be severely affected when China starts to reduce its imports significantly due to the rapid deterioration in its local consumption.

Monday, February 3, 2020

Is the January 2020 PMI an aberration?


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The ISM PMI rose to 50.9 in Jan 2020 primarily due to a huge increase in the new order that also led to increases in customers’ inventories and production.

The prices rose to 53.3 due to an increase in imports and a reduction in the local raw material.  This PMI might be a precursor to an improvement in the next US GDP growth.  However, the coronavirus epidemic might also thwart this turnaround.  Therefore, we need to observe the epidemic situation closely to determine if this turnaround in US economic growth will materialize in the foreseeable future or not.


http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/01/the-us-ism-pmi-declined-again-in.html

Geo Energy - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.176 0.245 Buy
02/13/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.198 0.245 Buy
03/18/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.183 0.245 Buy
03/25/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.186 0.215 Accumulate PER10x
03/26/19 Amfrasers Geo Energy 0.182 0.19 Hold DCF
04/26/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.176 0.215 Accumulate
05/29/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.148 0.15 Neutral PER10x
06/03/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.149 0.15 Neutral
07/04/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.155 0.15 Neutral
08/29/19 Amfrasers Geo Energy 0.15 0.14 Neutral DCF
09/24/19 Amfrasers Geo Energy 0.148 0.14 Neutral DCF

Genting - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.975 1.23 Buy DCF
01/15/19 Kim Eng Genting 1.03 1.26 Buy EV/Ebitda9x FY19
01/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 1.06 1.38 Buy EV/Ebitda10x FY19
02/15/19 DMG & Partners Genting 1.1 1.23 Buy DCF
02/22/19 CIMB Genting 1.11 1.28 Add EV/Ebitda9x CY20
02/22/19 OCBC Genting 1.11 1.31 Buy FCFE
02/22/19 DMG & Partners Genting 1.11 1.22 Buy DCF
02/22/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 1.11 1.32 Buy
02/22/19 Kim Eng Genting 1.11 1.26 Buy EV/Ebitda9x FY19
02/25/19 DBS Vickers Genting 1.07 1.54 Buy EV/Ebitda12x
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Genting 1.02 1.22 Buy
03/26/19 CIMB Genting 1.03 1.28 Add
04/04/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 1.07 1.26 Buy EV/Ebitda 9x
04/04/19 DMG & Partners Genting 1.07 1.08 Neutral DCF
04/04/19 CIMB Genting 1.07 1.11 Add EV/Ebitda8x
04/04/19 OCBC Genting 1.07 1.31 Buy
04/04/19 DBS Vickers Genting 1.07 1.54 Buy EV/Ebitda 12x
04/04/19 Kim Eng Genting 1.07 1.12 Hold EV/Ebitda 8x FY19
04/04/19 Citibank Genting 1.07 1.28 Buy
05/10/19 Kim Eng Genting 0.95 1.04 Hold
05/10/19 OCBC Genting 0.95 1.23 Buy
05/10/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.95 1.02 Neutral DCF
05/10/19 CIMB Genting 0.95 1.06 Add EV/Ebitda8x CY20
05/10/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 0.95 1.26 Buy
05/10/19 DBS Vickers Genting 0.95 1.2 Buy DCF
05/10/19 Citibank Genting 0.95 1.16 Buy
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.86 1.02 Neutral
06/24/19 CIMB Genting 0.93 1.06 Add
08/05/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.9 0.97 Neutral EV/Ebitda7x FY19
08/05/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 0.9 1.11 Buy
08/06/19 Kim Eng Genting 0.885 0.99 Hold
08/06/19 Citibank Genting 0.885 1.07 Buy
08/06/19 CIMB Genting 0.885 1 Add EV/Ebitda8x CY20
08/06/19 DBS Vickers Genting 0.885 1.2 Buy
08/06/19 Lim & Tan Genting 0.885 0 Hold
10/01/19 DBS Vickers Genting 0.88 1.2 Buy
10/11/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.9 0.97 Neutral
10/25/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 0.925 1.11 Buy
11/08/19 Kim Eng Genting 0.96 0.99 Hold EV/Ebitda7x FY20
11/08/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.96 0.97 Neutral EV/Ebitda7x FY20
11/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 0.96 1.11 Buy
12/11/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.915 0.97 Neutral
01/14/20 DBS Vickers Genting 0.92 1.2 Buy

Fu Yu - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.19 0.23 Buy DCF
01/04/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.186 0.27 Buy EV/Ebitda 5.3x FY19
01/15/19 CIMB Fu Yu 0.2 0.2 Hold PB0.9x
02/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.205 0.27 Buy
02/27/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.21 0.285 Buy
02/27/19 Lim & Tan Fu Yu 0.21 0 Buy
02/28/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.215 0.24 Buy DCF
02/28/19 CIMB Fu Yu 0.215 0.2 Hold
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.205 0.24 Buy
03/26/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.2 0.285 Buy
04/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.205 0.285 Buy EV/Ebitda5.5x
05/07/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.21 0.24 Buy DCF
05/10/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.205 0.285 Buy
05/10/19 Lim & Tan Fu Yu 0.205 0 Buy
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.19 0.24 Buy
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.2 0.29 Buy
07/09/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.215 0.24 Buy DCF
07/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.215 0.29 Buy
08/14/19 Lim & Tan Fu Yu 0.215 0 Buy
08/14/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.215 0.24 Buy DCF
08/14/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.215 0.285 Buy
09/11/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.215 0.24 Buy
09/16/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.23 0.285 Buy EV/Ebitda5.7x FY19
10/02/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.22 0.24 Buy DCF
10/09/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.225 0.285 Buy
11/12/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.225 0.285 Buy
11/14/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.225 0.24 Buy DCF
11/14/19 Lim & Tan Fu Yu 0.225 0 Buy
11/29/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.235 0.295 Buy
12/10/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.25 0.27 Buy DCF
12/13/19 Lim & Tan Fu Yu 0.25 0 Buy
01/08/20 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.255 0.27 Buy
01/15/20 DBS Vickers Fu Yu 0.25 0.35 Buy PER16x FY20
01/15/20 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.25 0.29 Buy DCF

Stock calls for 3 February 2020

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/03/20 UOB Kay Hian A-Reit 3.15 3.35 Buy DDM
02/03/20 DMG & Partners A-Reit 3.15 3.1 Neutral DDM
02/03/20 CIMB A-Reit 3.15 3.14 Hold
02/03/20 Kim Eng AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit 1.46 1.6 Buy DDM
02/03/20 UOB Kay Hian ART 1.26 1.57 Buy
02/03/20 OCBC CDL Hospitality 1.56 1.62 Hold
02/03/20 Kim Eng CDL Hospitality 1.56 1.75 Buy
02/03/20 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.56 1.89 Buy
02/03/20 DBS Vickers Far East Hospitality 0.68 0.69 Hold PB0.85x
02/03/20 OCBC Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.88 2.93 Hold
02/03/20 OCBC Mapletree Commercial 2.35 2.44 Hold
02/03/20 DBS Vickers OCBC 10.83 11.5 Hold
02/03/20 OCBC OUE Commercial 0.545 0.55 Hold
02/03/20 DBS Vickers OUE Commercial 0.545 0.6 Buy DCF
02/03/20 DBS Vickers UOB 25.66 29.2 Buy

Sunday, February 2, 2020

Red alert - H5N1 bird flu outbreak in Hunan.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/china-reports-h5n1-bird-flu-outbreak-hunan-wuhan-coronavirus-12381796

China has not managed to contain the coronavirus yet and H5N1 outbreak has started in Hunan.  It is estimated that the coronavirus will reach its peak in April 2020 before it subsides.

With these 2 viruses circulating in China, there is a high possibility that 1 quarter GDP growth will be wiped out in China.  It will be impossible for China to maintain a 6% GDP growth in 2020.

What happened to those cities under lockdown in China?

The markets, streets and malls are all empty and look like a ghost city.

When there is no human activity, there is no economic value.  Therefore, the 16 cities under lockdown with an estimated 60m people will be greatly impacted economically because China is a consumption-led economy now.  Furthermore, China is being increasingly ostracized by many countries as the Chinese are being denied entries.  The world is looking at China Chinese as locusts now.

There is also some speculation that the fatality rate of the coronavirus is much higher than stated because China is labelling the cause of death as visceral organ failure for those who die due to the virus.  The economic consequence will be much greater in 2020 than the SARS in 2003 because China's GDP in 2003 was only US$1.66T.  Moreover, China's economic contribution to the world is now at 39%.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/10/china-gdp-was-growing-at-65-in-q3-2018.html

Saturday, February 1, 2020

Baltic dry index - 487

Today, Friday, January 31 2020, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 11 points, reaching 487 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 790


Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

The US yield curve inversion has happened again in 2020!

The 10-year yield is 1.51% which is lower than 1-m, 2-m, 3-m and 4-m.

We hit the nail on Luckin Coffee.

https://www.investors.com/news/luckin-coffee-stock-falls-muddy-waters-report-fraud/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo

Muddy Waters has targeted Luckin Coffee.

We had warned about Luckin Coffee in May 2019.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/do-not-subscribe-to-luckin-coffee-ipo.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/luckin-has-fallen-below-its-ipo-price.html


The difference between a normal chest x-ray vs coronavirus chest x-ray.

Normal chest x-ray with clear visibility of ribs.

Coronavirus chest x-ray with foggy visibility.
The coronavirus has destroyed the lung's capability to breathe.

Human to human transmission has started for coronavirus.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/wuhan-virus-thailand-first-human-coronavirus-transmission-12374356

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/30/cdc-confirms-first-human-to-human-transmission-of-coronavirus-in-us.html

The US and Thailand have reported human to human transmission cases.  Although the fatality rate is much lower than SARS, the economic impacts will be much greater than SARS since there are more people getting infected by this new virus.

Friday, January 31, 2020

Frencken - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/12/19 Amfrasers Frencken 0.51 0.67 Buy PER10x FY19
04/15/19 DBS Vickers Frencken 0.6 0.75 Buy PER8.5x FY19/20
04/17/19 CIMB Frencken 0.635 0.9 Add PER10x FY20
05/09/19 DMG & Partners Frencken 0.615 0.82 Buy DCF
05/10/19 DBS Vickers Frencken 0.615 0.75 Buy PER8.5x FY19/20
05/10/19 Lim & Tan Frencken 0.615 0 Buy
05/10/19 CIMB Frencken 0.615 0.9 Add
05/14/19 Amfrasers Frencken 0.595 0.67 Buy PER10x FY19
06/12/19 DMG & Partners Frencken 0.625 0.82 Buy DCF
08/13/19 DBS Vickers Frencken 0.66 0.8 Buy
08/13/19 CIMB Frencken 0.66 0.9 Add
08/13/19 DMG & Partners Frencken 0.66 0.82 Buy DCF
08/13/19 DBS Vickers Frencken 0.66 0.8 Buy PER8.5x
08/22/19 CIMB Frencken 0.73 0.95 Add
08/22/19 Amfrasers Frencken 0.73 0.81 Neutral PER10x FY20
09/11/19 Amfrasers Frencken 0.675 0.81 outperform PER10x FY20
10/08/19 DMG & Partners Frencken 0.675 0.82 Buy
11/07/19 CIMB Frencken 0.72 0.94 Add PER10x FY20
11/07/19 Amfrasers Frencken 0.72 0.93 outperform PER10x FY20
11/07/19 DBS Vickers Frencken 0.72 0.95 Buy PER9x FY20
11/11/19 DMG & Partners Frencken 0.76 0.82 Buy DCF
11/18/19 Amfrasers Frencken 0.92 0.93 Neutral PER10x FY20
11/29/19 DBS Vickers Frencken 0.905 1.06 Buy PER10x FY20
12/02/19 Amfrasers Frencken 0.89 0.93 outperform PER10x FY20
12/10/19 DMG & Partners Frencken 0.94 0.92 Neutral DCF
01/24/20 DBS Vickers Frencken 0.91 1.06 Buy PER10x FY20

Frasers Property - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/17/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.74 1.98 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
02/14/19 CIMB Frasers Property 1.7 2.08 Add
02/14/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.7 1.98 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
03/22/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.77 1.98 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
04/08/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.81 1.98 Buy
04/10/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.84 2.3 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
05/06/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.89 2.3 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
05/07/19 CIMB Frasers Property 1.85 2.08 Add
11/18/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.82 2.05 Buy RNAV (40% discount)

Frasers Logistics - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/28/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Logistics 1.06 1.2 Buy DCF
01/28/19 OCBC Frasers Logistics 1.06 1.19 Buy
01/28/19 CIMB Frasers Logistics 1.06 1.19 Add
02/08/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Logistics 1.09 1.2 Buy
04/03/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Logistics 1.16 1.2 Buy
04/30/19 OCBC Frasers Logistics 1.18 1.2 Hold
05/02/19 CIMB Frasers Logistics 1.18 1.21 Hold DDM
06/28/19 OCBC Frasers Logistics 1.19 1.2 Hold
07/04/19 OCBC Frasers Logistics 1.23 1.2 Hold
07/04/19 Lim & Tan Frasers Logistics 1.23 0 Hold
07/04/19 CIMB Frasers Logistics 1.23 1.25 Hold
08/21/19 CIMB Frasers Logistics 1.2 1.27 Add
08/21/19 OCBC Frasers Logistics 1.2 1.22 Hold
11/06/19 Lim & Tan Frasers Logistics 1.25 0 Hold
11/07/19 OCBC Frasers Logistics 1.26 1.28 Hold
11/07/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Logistics 1.26 1.4 Buy DCF
11/07/19 CIMB Frasers Logistics 1.26 1.31 Add
12/03/19 CIMB Frasers Logistics 1.24 1.31 Add

Stock calls for 31 January 2020

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/31/20 Lim & Tan AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit 1.43 0 Hold
01/31/20 Kim Eng ART 1.27 1.4 Hold DDM
01/31/20 DBS Vickers ART 1.27 1.5 Buy
01/31/20 OCBC Cache Logistics 0.715 0.74 Hold
01/31/20 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.56 1.62 Neutral DDM
01/31/20 DBS Vickers CDL Hospitality 1.56 1.75 Buy DCF
01/31/20 CIMB First Reit 1.02 1.15 Add DDM
01/31/20 CIMB Japfa 0.56 0.69 Add
01/31/20 Kim Eng Japfa 0.56 0.72 Buy
01/31/20 CIMB Mapletree Logistics 1.85 1.59 Hold
01/31/20 phillip SGX 8.7 8.52 Neutral PER21.5x

The US GDP growth exceeds expectations.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/united-states-gdp-growth-continues-exceeding-expectations/

Just as we expected, the US 4th quarter GDP growth came out well at 2.1% but it was just an illusion because consumer spending declined significantly.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/01/the-upcoming-us-gdp-will-be-better.html