Stock calls for 3 July 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/03/20	DBS Vickers	ART	1.02	1.1	Buy
07/03/20	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.41	0.5	Buy
07/03/20	DBS Vickers	CapitaCommercial	1.75	1.95	Buy
07/03/20	DBS Vickers	Capitamall Trust	2.03	2.4	Buy
07/03/20	DBS Vickers	Comfortdelgro	1.47	1.68	Buy
07/03/20	DBS Vickers	Dairy Farm	4.66	5.1	Buy
07/03/20	phillip	DBS	21.28	20.6	Neutral
07/03/20	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.34	2.95	Buy
07/03/20	DBS Vickers	Frasers Logistics	1.21	1.4	Buy
07/03/20	DMG & Partners	Frencken	0.91	0.9	Buy
07/03/20	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.235	0.28	Buy
07/03/20	CIMB	Ifast Corp	1.45	1.65	Add	Sum of parts
07/03/20	DBS Vickers	Koufu	0.715	0.75	Buy
07/03/20	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.715	0.78	Buy
07/03/20	Lim & Tan	Koufu	0.715	0	Hold
07/03/20	DBS Vickers	Lendlease Reit	0.68	0.85	Buy
07/03/20	phillip	OCBC	9.18	9.14	Neutral
07/03/20	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.24	0.24	Neutral
07/03/20	Amfrasers	Singapore o&g	0.26	0.32	Neutral	PER16x
07/03/20	DBS Vickers	Singtel	2.51	3.09	Buy
07/03/20	Kim Eng	SPH Reit	0.885	0.8	Hold	DDM
07/03/20	Lim & Tan	SPH Reit	0.885	0	Hold
07/03/20	DBS Vickers	Thai Beverage	0.675	0.9	Buy
07/03/20	phillip	UOB	20.61	20.7	Neutral
07/03/20	DMG & Partners	Valuetronics	0.56	0.5	Sell
07/03/20	DMG & Partners	Venture	16.48	15.1	Neutral

The ISM PMI has turned around in June.

The PMI prices sub-index increased to 51.3 the producers were able to raise prices due to huge increases in employment and new orders. The government stimulus cheques were greasing the consumer spendings which were reflected by a huge spike in new local order. This increasing consumption was causing the production to increase to meet the spiking demands.

Is this improvement sustainable or just an aberration?

If the US cannot contain the 2nd wave of outbreak, this will not be sustainable.  We are starting to see the 2nd outbreak in the US now.

Ascendas India Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/29/19	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.42	1.55	Buy
10/25/19	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.55	1.65	Buy	DDM
12/19/19	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.53	1.65	Buy
02/04/20	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.58	1.65	Buy
02/07/20	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.65	1.85	Buy
03/02/20	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.65	1.85	Buy

Ascendas Hospitality Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/04/19	DBS Vickers	Ascendas Hospitality Trust	1.04	1.21	Buy	Pegged to ART

Ascott Residential Trust (ART) - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/04/19	OCBC	ART	1.28	1.31	Hold
07/04/19	CIMB	ART	1.28	1.15	Hold	DDM
07/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.28	1.46	Buy
07/05/19	Phillip	ART	1.31	1.36	Accumulate	DDM
07/31/19	CIMB	ART	1.3	1.31	Hold	DDM
07/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.3	1.54	Buy
07/31/19	DBS Vickers	ART	1.3	1.45	Buy
08/02/19	DIR	ART	1.32	1.34	Outperform
08/02/19	Kim Eng	ART	1.32	1.3	Hold
08/02/19	Phillip	ART	1.32	1.36	Accumulate	DDM
08/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.3	1.54	Buy
09/24/19	Phillip	ART	1.31	1.36	Accumulate
10/09/19	DBS Vickers	ART	1.32	1.45	Buy
10/11/19	Phillip	ART	1.31	1.42	Accumulate
10/22/19	OCBC	ART	1.37	1.31	Hold
10/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.4	1.66	Buy	DDM
11/01/19	Kim Eng	ART	1.38	1.35	Hold	DDM
11/04/19	CIMB	ART	1.37	1.34	Hold
11/04/19	OCBC	ART	1.37	1.41	Hold
11/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.31	1.66	Buy	DDM
11/25/19	Phillip	ART	1.32	1.36	Accumulate
11/25/19	DBS Vickers	ART	1.32	1.45	Buy
12/19/19	Kim Eng	ART	1.35	1.4	Hold	DDM
01/31/20	Kim Eng	ART	1.27	1.4	Hold	DDM
01/31/20	DBS Vickers	ART	1.27	1.5	Buy
02/03/20	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.26	1.57	Buy
02/04/20	DBS Vickers	ART	1.26	1.5	Buy
02/05/20	Phillip	ART	1.24	1.53	Buy	DDM
02/19/20	OCBC	ART	1.26	1.4	Buy
03/13/20	Phillip	ART	1	1.53	Accumulate
03/16/20	OCBC	ART	0.95	1.11	Buy
03/20/20	UOB Kay Hian	ART	0.72	1.24	Buy	DDM
04/13/20	Lim & Tan	ART	0.855	0	Hold
04/21/20	DBS Vickers	ART	0.885	1.1	Buy
05/05/20	UOB Kay Hian	ART	0.86	1.16	Buy	DDM
05/08/20	Phillip	ART	0.86	1.17	Buy	DDM
06/01/20	DBS Vickers	ART	0.96	1.1	Buy
06/08/20	CIMB	ART	1.05	1.21	Add
06/08/20	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.05	1.16	Buy
07/02/20	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1	1.16	Buy

Stock calls for 2 July 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/02/20	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1	1.16	Buy
07/02/20	UOB Kay Hian	Capitamall Trust	2	2.6	Buy
07/02/20	DMG & Partners	Comfortdelgro	1.48	1.65	Buy	DCF, PER16x FY21
07/02/20	UOB Kay Hian	Far East Hospitality	0.5	0.62	Buy
07/02/20	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.32	2.95	Buy	Sum of parts, PB1.45x
07/02/20	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.32	2.85	Buy
07/02/20	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	0.765	0.8	Hold	Buy @ $0.68
07/02/20	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	1.11	1.3	Buy
07/02/20	CIMB	Koufu	0.695	0.86	Add	PER19x FY21
07/02/20	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Industrial	2.9	3.25	Buy	DCF
07/02/20	Lim & Tan	Singtel	2.47	0	Buy
07/02/20	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	4.1	4.6	Buy	Sum of parts, PER19.6x FY20

Why is China slowing its monetary easing!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-central-bank-signaling-slowing-210000899.html

China is cognizant of the impending risks of monetary easing and it is slowing its monetary easing to prevent the economic malaise (overinflation) that we've envisioned.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/emerging-markets-have-to-watch-out-for.html

We've seen this played out many times.  The SG and HK property markets are good examples of such consequences.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-hong-kong-protestors-know-nothing.html

Emerging markets have to watch out for overinflated assets!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/portfolio-inflows-emerging-markets-continue-143622938.html

As stated in our previous posting, emerging market inflows increase many folds because monies flow to high-interest yielding countries.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/weve-correctly-predicted-end-of-good-us.html

These emerging markets will have to watch out for overinflated assets such as the stock markets and properties because the western investors will cash out from these emerging markets in the future leaving the local investors with overpriced assets.  In other words, these local investors will be saddled with tremendous losses in the future.

Who proposed the 10m population in Singapore?

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/vivian-balakrishnan-slams-chee-soon-juan-over-false-statement-of-10-million-population-plan-171015707.html

It was Liu Thai Ker who proposed the 10m population in SG.  Why didn't the government debunk the false claim by Liu Thai Ker?

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/top-stories/singapore-should-plan-for-population-of-10m

The population whitepaper projected a 6.9m population in Singapore by 2030.  Please look at my screenshot taken from the government whitepaper.

ARA Logistics - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	ARA Logistics	0.785	0.83	Buy
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	ARA Logistics	0.78	0.75	Hold	DCF
07/22/19	phillip	ARA Logistics	0.785	0.75	Neutral
07/26/19	Kim Eng	ARA Logistics	0.765	0.9	Buy	DDM
07/26/19	DMG & Partners	ARA Logistics	0.765	0.8	Buy	DDM
07/26/19	CIMB	ARA Logistics	0.765	0.76	Hold	DDM
08/26/19	phillip	ARA Logistics	0.725	0.75	Neutral
09/24/19	phillip	ARA Logistics	0.735	0.75	Neutral
10/18/19	phillip	ARA Logistics	0.73	0.75	Neutral
10/30/19	OCBC	ARA Logistics	0.72	0.72	Hold
11/25/19	phillip	ARA Logistics	0.71	0.75	Neutral
12/10/19	DMG & Partners	ARA Logistics	0.72	0.8	Buy
01/24/20	Kim Eng	ARA Logistics	0.725	0.8	Buy	DDM
01/28/20	DBS Vickers	ARA Logistics	0.725	0.75	Hold	DCF
01/31/20	OCBC	ARA Logistics	0.715	0.74	Hold
03/02/20	DBS Vickers	ARA Logistics	0.685	0.75	Hold
03/10/20	DMG & Partners	ARA Logistics	0.64	0.74	Buy	DDM
03/17/20	Kim Eng	ARA Logistics	0.515	0.8	Buy
04/23/20	DMG & Partners	ARA Logistics	0.535	0.74	Buy
04/29/20	DMG & Partners	ARA Logistics	0.525	0.64	Buy	DDM
04/29/20	DBS Vickers	ARA Logistics	0.525	0.56	Hold	DCF
04/30/20	CIMB	ARA Logistics	0.53	0.71	Hold
06/12/20	UOB Kay Hian	ARA Logistics	0.54	0.69	Buy
06/16/20	DBS Vickers	ARA Logistics	0.525	0.7	Buy	DCF
06/23/20	DMG & Partners	ARA Logistics	0.57	0.64	Buy

ARA Hospitality - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	ARA Hospitality	0.885	1.15	Buy
08/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	ARA Hospitality	0.885	1.21	Buy	DDM
10/02/19	Amfrasers	ARA Hospitality	0.87	0.96	Outperform	DDM
11/07/19	UOB Kay Hian	ARA Hospitality	0.86	1.16	Buy	DDM
11/07/19	Amfrasers	ARA Hospitality	0.86	0.99	Outperform	DDM
12/02/19	Amfrasers	ARA Hospitality	0.855	0.99	Outperform	DDM
02/20/20	Amfrasers	ARA Hospitality	0.86	0.95	Outperform
02/20/20	UOB Kay Hian	ARA Hospitality	0.86	1.25	Buy
03/10/20	Amfrasers	ARA Hospitality	0.55	0.95	Outperform
04/16/20	UOB Kay Hian	ARA Hospitality	0.445	0.7	Buy	DDM
06/12/20	UOB Kay Hian	ARA Hospitality	0.425	0.69	Buy	DDM

APTV - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/19/19	Phillip	APTV	0.17	0.165	Neutral	EV/Ebitda9.5x
11/12/19	Phillip	APTV	0.171	0.165	Neutral	EV/Ebitda9.5x
02/12/20	Phillip	APTV	0.167	0.165	Neutral	EV/Ebitda10x
04/29/20	Phillip	APTV	0.129	0.15	Buy	EV/Ebitda10x

Stock calls for 1 July 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/01/20	DBS Vickers	A-Reit	3.17	3.45	Buy
07/01/20	CIMB	Comfortdelgro	1.45	1.46	Hold	PER13.1x FY21
07/01/20	CIMB	DBS	20.85	18.8	Hold
07/01/20	CIMB	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.31	2.49	Add	DDM
07/01/20	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.88	1.02	Buy	PER10.4x FY21
07/01/20	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.76	0.73	Neutral	EV/Ebitda6x FY21
07/01/20	CIMB	OCBC	9	8.37	Hold
07/01/20	DMG & Partners	SGX	8.34	9.2	Buy
07/01/20	DMG & Partners	Suntec Reit	1.41	1.78	Buy	DDM
07/01/20	CIMB	UOB	20.23	19.04	Hold

APAC Realty - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/15/19	Phillip	APAC Realty	0.545	0.65	Buy	DCF
08/06/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.525	0.65	Buy	DCF
08/06/19	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.525	0.48	Hold	PER10x FY20
08/08/19	Phillip	APAC Realty	0.515	0.58	Buy	DCF
08/13/19	CIMB	APAC Realty	0.51	0.6	Add	PER10x FY20
09/12/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.495	0.65	Buy
11/14/19	CIMB	APAC Realty	0.515	0.66	Add	DCF
11/14/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.515	0.6	Buy	DCF
11/14/19	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.515	0.46	Hold	PER12x FY20
11/18/19	Phillip	APAC Realty	0.5	0.55	Accumulate	DCF
12/16/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.505	0.6	Buy
02/25/20	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.47	0.6	Buy	DCF
02/25/20	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.47	0.52	Hold	PER12x FY20
02/25/20	CIMB	APAC Realty	0.47	0.61	Add
02/26/20	Phillip	APAC Realty	0.49	0.55	Accumulate	DCF
05/29/20	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.35	0.6	Buy
06/03/20	CIMB	APAC Realty	0.405	0.538	Add	DCF
06/11/20	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.42	0.41	Hold	PER19x FY21
06/15/20	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.395	0.5	Buy	DCF

Amara - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
12/11/19	DMG & Partners	Amara	0.45	0.88	Buy
03/04/20	DMG & Partners	Amara	0.4	0.78	Buy	RNAV (44% discount)

AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.46	1.5	Buy	DCF
07/25/19	Lim & Tan	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.47	0	Hold
07/26/19	Kim Eng	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.47	1.6	Buy	DDM
11/07/19	DBS Vickers	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.4	1.5	Buy	DCF
01/31/20	Lim & Tan	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.43	0	Hold
02/03/20	Kim Eng	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.46	1.6	Buy	DDM
03/02/20	DBS Vickers	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.4	1.5	Buy	DCF
03/05/20	Macquarie	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.42	1.55	Outperform
05/15/20	DBS Vickers	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.18	1.4	Buy	DCF
05/28/20	Macquarie	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.22	1.45	Outperform
06/02/20	DBS Vickers	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.26	1.4	Buy

Stock calls for 30 June 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/30/20	DBS Vickers	AEM	2.93	3.53	Buy	PER10.4x FY21
06/30/20	CIMB	Elite ComReit	0.7	1.3	Add
06/30/20	DBS Vickers	IHH Healthcare	1.78	2.05	Buy	Sum of parts
06/30/20	CIMB	IHH Healthcare	1.78	2.03	Add	Sum of parts, Ringgit $6.25 target price
06/30/20	Aminvestment	IHH Healthcare	1.78	2.14	Buy	DCF, Ringgit $6.58 target price
06/30/20	Kim Eng	IHH Healthcare	1.78	1.97	Buy	Ringgit $6.05 target price
06/30/20	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.67	0.82	Buy	Sum of parts, PER10.5x FY21
06/30/20	DBS Vickers	SGX	8.06	7.4	Fully Valued
06/30/20	CIMB	SGX	8.06	8	Hold

SUTD made a bizarre epidemic prediction from its data analysis. - Part 2

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/who-coronavirus-infection-rate-warning-160011546.html

It looks crystal clear that SUTD has proven itself to be a 3rd rated university because the covid-19 outbreak won't end in July 2020 for Singapore.  In fact, there will be more reported cases in July because the government has started COVID testing for students and citizens above 13 years old.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/05/sutd-made-bizarre-epidemic-prediction.html

SUTD had made an incomplete data analysis, a.k.a a flawed analysis, with a singularity mindset instead of using both qualitative and quantitative methodologies.  This singularity analysis will have a big margin of error which is exactly what is happening in SUTD COVID publication.

The UK ex-PM, Teresa May, also made the same mistake by relying on flawed data analysis to call for a Brexit referendum because the flawed data analysis showed that the majority would vote against Brexit.  In the end, the British voted for Brexit.

Here's a simple example of a singularity analysis of data.

If we just look at the data above, we can see that the countries with lower infected cases have reported more deaths than Singapore.  This will give the impression that SG is fudging its COVID statistics if we just study the data and apply only quantitative analysis.  However, if we also apply qualitative analysis on the data, we will be able to justify the low death number because the COVID virus strain in SG is less lethal than the west and Malaysia.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/04/what-are-scientific-analyses-for-origin.html

A complete data analysis which involves qualitative and quantitative methodologies will reveal that the COVID outbreak won't end in July 2020 in Singapore because SG has a less lethal but more infectious virus strain.  Furthermore, there is likely to be a 2nd wave of outbreak when the economy reopens because of this infectious strain.

The US debt market is going to implode! - Part 2

https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-fed-is-buying-more-auto-makers-bonds-than-wall-street-expected-51593446342?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

The US FED is buying more auto-makers bonds now! We did warn about the US car debts in May 2020.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/05/the-us-debt-market-is-going-to-implode.html

Why is the US FED buying auto-maker bonds?

Well, the US FED wants to support the auto-makers so that they don't need to meet their cashflow needs by discounting their new car prices since doing so will impact the secondary car market (used car prices).  If the auto-makers rush to slash their new car prices, the US car debts will suffer massive markdowns and this will expedite a crash in the car debt market.

No need to vote Indranee Rajah into our parliament.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/no-need-for-opposition-m-ps-to-have-opposition-presence-in-parliament-indranee-rajah-050749941.html

Have you guys ever wondered where the phrase, "Absolute power corrupts", came from?

There was a psychological experiment conducted to substantiate this phrase and this experiment was called the Lucifer Effect.  It was named after a fallen angel called Lucifer who turned into a devil.

https://www.psychologicalscience.org/observer/bad-apples-or-bad-barrels-zimbardo-on-the-lucifer-effect

This experiment was supposed to last a few weeks but was terminated in just 6 days because it went out of control when the participants (guards) were given absolute powers to do many things in the prison.  Basically, there was no supervisory of the guards and self-supervision didn't work.

The participants (guards) were selected based on their good social standings but they turned evil after they had a taste of absolute power.  Hilter also succumbed to the Lucifer Effect in the same way.

Therefore, we must not allow having only a 1-party system in Singapore without opposition.  For your information, nominated MPs have no voting rights in the parliament because they were not elected to represent us.  When a minister has such thinking, we will suffer in the future if such a minister is voted into the parliament.

Please think twice before you vote as you will be voting for the future political structure in Singapore.