Keppel Corp - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/08/21	CIMB	Keppel Corp	5.35	6.4	Add
06/09/21	Phillip	Keppel Corp	5.29	6.12	Buy	Sum of parts (10% discount), PB1x FY21
06/09/21	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Corp	5.29	6.37	Buy	Sum of parts
06/25/21	OCBC	Keppel Corp	5.11	6.33	Buy
06/28/21	DBS Vickers	Keppel Corp	5.4	6.2	Buy	PB1x
06/28/21	Phillip	Keppel Corp	5.4	6.2	Buy	Sum of parts (10% discount), PB1x FY21
06/29/21	Macquarie	Keppel Corp	5.6	5.44	Neutral
07/06/21	Phillip	Keppel Corp	5.37	6.12	Buy
07/07/21	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Corp	5.42	6.37	Buy
07/30/21	CIMB	Keppel Corp	5.39	6.9	Add
07/30/21	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	5.39	0	Buy
07/30/21	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Corp	5.39	6.48	Buy	Sum of parts
08/02/21	Phillip	Keppel Corp	5.49	6.28	Buy	Sum of parts
08/03/21	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	5.49	0	Accumulate
08/06/21	CIMB	Keppel Corp	5.55	6.9	Add
08/06/21	OCBC	Keppel Corp	5.55	6.33	Buy
08/06/21	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Corp	5.55	6.48	Buy
08/12/21	Macquarie	Keppel Corp	5.42	6.15	Outperform	Sum of parts
08/26/21	DBS Vickers	Keppel Corp	5.35	6.2	Buy	PB1x
09/17/21	CIMB	Keppel Corp	5.27	6.9	Add	Sum of parts
09/27/21	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Corp	5.22	6.48	Buy
10/08/21	DBS Vickers	Keppel Corp	5.22	6.2	Buy
10/08/21	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	5.22	6.37	Accumulate
10/19/21	Phillip	Keppel Corp	5.53	7.07	Buy	Sum of parts
10/25/21	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Corp	5.51	6.48	Buy
10/26/21	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	5.48	6.44	Accumulate
10/29/21	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Corp	5.37	6.74	Buy	Sum of parts
11/01/21	CIMB	Keppel Corp	5.38	6.9	Add
11/01/21	DBS Vickers	Keppel Corp	5.38	6.2	Buy
11/03/21	Phillip	Keppel Corp	5.32	7.07	Buy	Sum of parts
11/22/21	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Corp	5.34	6.74	Buy
12/07/21	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	5.13	6.68	Accumulate
12/13/21	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Corp	5.24	6.74	Buy
01/07/22	Phillip	Keppel Corp	5.11	7.07	Buy	Sum of parts
01/21/22	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	5.31	6.7	Accumulate
01/24/22	DBS Vickers	Keppel Corp	5.38	6.2	Buy
01/26/22	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Corp	5.31	6.74	Buy
01/28/22	Citi Research	Keppel Corp	5.29	6.35	Buy	Sum of parts (10% discount)
01/28/22	DBS Vickers	Keppel Corp	5.29	6.9	Buy	Sum of parts
01/28/22	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	5.29	6.67	Accumulate
01/28/22	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Corp	5.29	6.94	Buy	Sum of parts
02/08/22	Amfrasers	Keppel Corp	5.89	6.22	Buy	Sum of parts
02/10/22	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.04	7.2	Add
02/10/22	DBS Vickers	Keppel Corp	6.04	6.9	Buy
02/10/22	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	6.04	6.8	Accumulate
02/11/22	Phillip	Keppel Corp	6.03	7.07	Buy	Sum of parts
02/18/22	OCBC	Keppel Corp	6.08	7	Buy
03/14/22	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Corp	6.13	6.94	Buy
04/01/22	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.42	7.2	Add	Sum of parts
04/01/22	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	6.42	6.85	Buy
04/04/22	Phillip	Keppel Corp	6.46	7.07	Buy	Sum of parts, PB1x
04/22/22	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Corp	6.65	7.25	Buy	Sum of parts
04/28/22	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.66	7.2	Add	Sum of parts
04/28/22	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Corp	6.66	10.11	Buy	Sum of parts
04/29/22	OCBC	Keppel Corp	6.86	8.78	Buy
05/09/22	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	6.79	0	Accumulate
05/24/22	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	6.77	7.6	Accumulate
06/01/22	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	6.89	7.6	Accumulate
06/15/22	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.69	7.2	Add
07/07/22	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Corp	6.45	10.11	Buy

Jumbo - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/28/21	DBS Vickers	Jumbo	0.295	0.21	Fully Valued
11/25/21	Lim & Tan	Jumbo	0.3	0	Hold
01/14/22	Lim & Tan	Jumbo	0.315	0	Hold
01/14/22	CIMB	Jumbo	0.315	0.31	Hold
05/19/22	CIMB	Jumbo	0.29	0.3	Hold

Stock calls for 12 July 2022

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/12/22	DBS Vickers	EC World Reit	0.48	0.7	Buy
07/12/22	CIMB	First Resources	1.51	2.1	Hold
07/12/22	CIMB	Golden Agri	0.265	0.3	Hold
07/12/22	DMG & Partners	OCBC	11.45	13.9	Buy	GGM, PB1.06x FY23
07/12/22	CIMB	Raffles Medical	1.11	1.27	Add
07/12/22	Lim & Tan	Stamford Land	0.395	0	Hold
07/12/22	CIMB	Wilmar	4.13	5.69	Add

Financial risks are rising in the US! - Part 5

Financial risk updates:

The Bloomberg US financial condition index has a positive correlation to the S&P500 as indicated by the chart below.  The US financial condition index has a downward trajectory now for the year 2022.

The Fear & Greed Index is also indicating a worsening financial sentiment as the index is in the fear region now.

The S&P500 earnings forecast is overwhelmingly optimistic and has not been downgraded yet.  Thus, the earnings downgrades will look increasingly likely to happen soon.

Last but not least, the latest Atlantic Fed GDP estimate is still in negative territory (-1.2%).

Financial risks are rising in the US! - Part 4

As stated previously in our part 1 post, US firms would face difficulties raising funds because of the higher risk premiums.  These difficulties are reflected now by a significant fall in corporate debts.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2022/07/financial-risks-are-rising-in-us.html

We had also stated previously that there would be earnings downgrades soon.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2022/07/financial-risks-are-rising-in-us-part-3.html

This chart indicates that there is a high probability of low corporate earnings in 2022.

A recent poll shows that more than 70% believe the US will be in a recession by year end (2022).

Furthermore, US consumers are already complaining about the recession.

Notwithstanding the US recession, the EU will also be in a recession because of its own economic weaknesses.

Is a recession really coming?

Well, the US 10-2 year yield curve inversion has happened again!  A yield curve inversion will usually precede a recession.

As the US Fed continues to hike its rates to control the sky-high inflation, the bubbly housing market looks set to burst.  We had indicated in Part 1 that the US housing market was already in a bubble as indicated by the chart below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2022/07/financial-risks-are-rising-in-us.html

Here are the recent comments on the US housing market.

Morgan Stanley (MS) had stated that the US growth was worse than expected.  How valid was the MS statement?

As close to 70% of the US GDP is supported by consumers, any slowdown in consumers' economic activity will impact the US GDP significantly.  The most important deciding factor will be the consumers' wages.  The US disposal incomes and real wages have been declining despite the rising salaries.  Consequently, this means that their current spending can't be sustainable in the future.

No wonder the consumers are feeling miserable now as indicated by the misery index.

In conclusion, all the above-mentioned factors will push the US into a recession.

Baltic dry index - 2067

 
Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count (weekly) - 752

 
Related stock: Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Jiutian - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/12/21	Amfrasers	Jiutian	0.086	0.145	Outperform	PER7x FY22
10/19/21	CIMB	Jiutian	0.091	0.14	Add
11/12/21	CIMB	Jiutian	0.079	0.14	Add
01/11/22	UOB Kay Hian	Jiutian	0.078	0.14	Buy	PER5x FY21
01/20/22	CIMB	Jiutian	0.083	0.15	Add
03/01/22	CIMB	Jiutian	0.082	0.15	Add
04/05/22	UOB Kay Hian	Jiutian	0.09	0.168	Buy	PER4.3x FY22
05/05/22	CIMB	Jiutian	0.094	0.17	Add
05/11/22	UOB Kay Hian	Jiutian	0.099	0.18	Buy	PER3.5x FY22
05/17/22	Amfrasers	Jiutian	0.098	0.245	Outperform	PER4.5x

Jardine Matheson - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/04/22	Lim & Tan	Jardine Matheson	59.12	65.5	Accumulate	Average target

Jardine C&C - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
12/17/21	Macquarie	Jardine C&C	21.2	26.5	Outperform	Sum of parts

Stock calls for 9 July 2022

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/08/22	DMG & Partners	A-Reit	2.89	3.6	Buy	DDM
07/08/22	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Industrial	2.64	3.36	Buy