http://humansarefree.com/2015/08/are-there-ancient-pyramids-in-antarctica.html
Saturday, November 26, 2016
Why is gold losing its lustre?
Gold prices are falling for 2 fundamental reasons. First is the appreciation of USD. As USD rises, it gets more expensive to buy gold because gold is priced in USD in international market. Investors will get lesser gold for the same amount of USD. The 2nd reason is the rise in interest rate. As gold is a zero interest yielding asset, it will lose its favour once other assets have higher yielding powers. Gold is favoured in negative interest and low USD environment compared to other assets.
Why are asian currencies depreciating?
For RMB devaluation, please read our previous post, http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2016/11/high-interest-rate-environment-is-coming.html for more information.
Asian currencies are depreciating because of USD rises. USD is rising because of the expected interest rate increases in December 2016 and also in 2017.
Funds are leaving Asia and flowing to USA because of higher investment yields due to higher interest rates. Therefore, countries with lower foreign reserves will suffer more depreciations. This can be seen from SGD vs MYR. Due to the anticipated interest rate movements, fund managers will be dabbling in interest related derivatives whereby USA has the most liquid market because of arbitrage opportunities. This explains why funds are pulling out of Asia and moving to USA.
Business and investment costs will go up soon in Asia and these will create inflations. Subsequently, the vicious interest rates cycle will begin to form in the world until recession takes place.
Asian currencies are depreciating because of USD rises. USD is rising because of the expected interest rate increases in December 2016 and also in 2017.
Funds are leaving Asia and flowing to USA because of higher investment yields due to higher interest rates. Therefore, countries with lower foreign reserves will suffer more depreciations. This can be seen from SGD vs MYR. Due to the anticipated interest rate movements, fund managers will be dabbling in interest related derivatives whereby USA has the most liquid market because of arbitrage opportunities. This explains why funds are pulling out of Asia and moving to USA.
Business and investment costs will go up soon in Asia and these will create inflations. Subsequently, the vicious interest rates cycle will begin to form in the world until recession takes place.
Baltic dry index - 1181
Today, Friday, November 25 2016, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 20 points, reaching 1181 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
US rig count - 593
HOUSTON — The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. increased by five this week to 593.
A year ago, 744 rigs were active. Depressed energy prices have curtailed exploration although the rig count has been rising in recent weeks.
Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. said 474 rigs sought oil and 118 explored for natural gas this week. One was listed as miscellaneous.
Pennsylvania gained four rigs, Texas three and Colorado two.
Wyoming declined by three, New Mexico two and North Dakota one.
Alaska, Arkansas, California, Kansas, Louisiana, Ohio, Oklahoma, Utah and West Virginia were unchanged.
The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May at 404.
The weekly tally, normally released Friday, was released Wednesday because of Thanksgiving.
Friday, November 25, 2016
Latest update on 9 SG armoured tanks seized in HK port.
http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/9-armoured-vehicles-bound-spore-seized-hk
This was the first time Taiwan was tasked to ship the tanks back to SG and Taiwan screwed it up. Previously, SG was responsible for all the shippings. Taiwan was not supposed to en route to HK for this shipping trip but it entered HK port anyway and offloaded SG tanks. SG tanks were secretly cordoned off in the port with surrounding containers to mask its presence but a whistle blower informed the port authority which resulted in the investigation and seizure. Under HK laws, no military equipment can enter HK without authorization and HK has the right to seize such illegal military equipment.
This was the first time Taiwan was tasked to ship the tanks back to SG and Taiwan screwed it up. Previously, SG was responsible for all the shippings. Taiwan was not supposed to en route to HK for this shipping trip but it entered HK port anyway and offloaded SG tanks. SG tanks were secretly cordoned off in the port with surrounding containers to mask its presence but a whistle blower informed the port authority which resulted in the investigation and seizure. Under HK laws, no military equipment can enter HK without authorization and HK has the right to seize such illegal military equipment.
China-Cambodia port is going to start operation soon!
This new deep sea port is capable for berthing China aircraft carrier and can be turned into a military seaport anytime. This port will be under China management for 99 years to safeguard its interest in south east asia.
http://english.cctv.com/2016/10/13/VIDEUV5FyRopLpEeJ2N0HFK8161013.shtml
Look like SG heyday is over!
Dubai new hyperloop train! Super cool and fast!
Thursday, November 24, 2016
Singapore downgrades its GDP growth in 2016.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-downgrades-2016-gdp-exports-003300147.html
Our government's estimate (-4.1%) was overly pessimistic on 14 October compared to the actual fall of -2%. Was this due to being too conservative or our government economist was too lousy? The estimation was too way off!
Our government's estimate (-4.1%) was overly pessimistic on 14 October compared to the actual fall of -2%. Was this due to being too conservative or our government economist was too lousy? The estimation was too way off!
Wednesday, November 23, 2016
Singapore port volume is expected to decline again in 2016!
The TEU in 2015 was 30.92m. If we analyse the figures in 2016 as shown above, the expected TEU in 2016 will be around 30.5m. Therefore, the 9% drop in 2015 is not an aberration but is the harbinger of further fall in 2016. Look like China has succeeded in containing Singapore growth.
Singapore port handling capacity volume CAGR!
Singapore port handling capacity volume in TEU:
2011 = 29.94m
2012 = 31.65m
2013 = 32.6m
2014 = 33.87m
2015 = 30.9m
From 2011 (29.94m) to 2015 (30.9m), the CAGR is 0.79%.
29.94*(1+0.79%))^4 = 30.9
Once the CAGR becomes negative, Singapore will be in an extremely precarious position.
Is Singapore resilient enough for the upcoming economic downturn?
Singapore is a heavily entrepôt dependent country till now as it is a small country with no natural resources. Yes, Singapore had been through the vicissitudes of economic cycles and had been resilient throughout all the economic and financial crises. Singapore was able to weather all these harsh tribulations because its port had been increasing the port handling capacity volumes throughout the years. However, Singapore had lost its world’s busiest port to Shanghai and its port volumes fell in 2015 by 9%. I hope that this decline in port volumes in 2015 is just an aberration and not the harbinger of more declines in the future. If the port volumes begin to decline, Singapore will find it hard to recover from any economic crises in the future.
When the port volumes are having positive CAGR annually, it means that businesses are sustainable in the foreseeable future despite any negative economic growth and Singapore can recover from any recession or crisis. Conversely, when the port volumes are having negative CAGR annually, businesses become unsustainable because there will be declining demands for the ancillary services and products pertaining to the entrepôt trades. In a nutshell, when Singapore loses its sea hub, it will also lose its financial hub and Singapore will retrograde into a 2nd or 3rd world country.
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