Saturday, January 14, 2017
Baltic dry index - 910
Today, Friday, January 13 2017, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 18 points, reaching 910 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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This news is important for investors who are interested in Cosco and Sembcorp Marine.
US rig count - 659
HOUSTON (AP) — The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. declined by six this week to 659.
A year ago, 650 rigs were active. Depressed energy prices have curtailed exploration, although the rig count has been rebounding in recent months.
Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. said Friday that 522 rigs sought oil and 136 explored for natural gas this week. One was listed as miscellaneous.
Wyoming increased by two rigs and Louisiana by one.
Oklahoma and Texas each declined by two rigs. Colorado, North Dakota, Ohio and Pennsylvania fell by one each.
Alaska, Arkansas, California, Kansas, New Mexico, Utah and West Virginia were all unchanged.
The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May at 404.
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This news is important for investors who are interested in Keppel Corp, Cosco and Sembcorp Marine as these companies are involved in rig building.
Friday, January 13, 2017
Singapore has bowed to China finally! - Part 2
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2016/12/23/2003661755
After the seizure of SG tanks in HK, Singapore is playing by ear when it comes to dealing with China. SG had denied Taiwan ex-official entry so that it won't antagonize China.
China's strategy to gag SG for its vocal expression of anti-China remarks with the seizure of SG tanks has been working well because SG has managed to stay silent on Taiwan issues. Therefore, China will detain SG tanks as long as it deems fit to gag SG while it continues to besiege Taiwan politically.
Singapore port volume has dropped again!
Singapore port handling capacity volume in TEU:
2011 = 29.94m
2012 = 31.65m
2013 = 32.6m
2014 = 33.87m
2015 = 30.9m
2016 = 30.59m
SG port volume has dropped for 2 consecutive years. Will SG decline again in 2017? It is likely that SG port will decline further because of new ports and land freights operating in 2017 which are under the control of China.
China has upped its ante against Taiwan.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/taiwan-protests-nigerias-demand-move-trade-mission-44729490
Nigeria has demanded Taiwan trade office to move out of its capital because of China.
China is taking more actions against Taiwan and there will be more draconian actions when Trump refuses to recognise the one-China policy.
The likely motive behind the seizure of SG tanks in HK is to compel SG to remain silent on the Taiwan issue. China will detain SG tanks as long as it deems necessary despite SG protest as it is an effective way to gag SG. This has proven to be true as we've been silence insofar.
Nigeria has demanded Taiwan trade office to move out of its capital because of China.
China is taking more actions against Taiwan and there will be more draconian actions when Trump refuses to recognise the one-China policy.
The likely motive behind the seizure of SG tanks in HK is to compel SG to remain silent on the Taiwan issue. China will detain SG tanks as long as it deems necessary despite SG protest as it is an effective way to gag SG. This has proven to be true as we've been silence insofar.
Who will be in charge of South China Sea in the future?
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-russia-agree-more-countermeasures-against-u-anti-001503653.html
China and Russia will be in charge of SCS in the future, not USA! We better choose to be on the right side or else we will suffer. There is no way for USA to win a war against 2 big nuclear countries. Once China and Russia have set a code of conduct for SCS and strengthen their military ties for SCS, the rest of the world will have to follow this code of conduct and nobody is allowed to challenge it.
China and Russia will be in charge of SCS in the future, not USA! We better choose to be on the right side or else we will suffer. There is no way for USA to win a war against 2 big nuclear countries. Once China and Russia have set a code of conduct for SCS and strengthen their military ties for SCS, the rest of the world will have to follow this code of conduct and nobody is allowed to challenge it.
Hot news! CNN alleged Trump has a sex fetish!
https://noxious.ca/2017/01/11/trump-to-cnn-you-are-fake-news/
CNN alleged that Trump has a sex fetish which is watching woman pissing! I've not seen a news media and an incumbent president squabbled in a news conference before. This shows that Trump is really unwelcome as the president. Even UK media doesn't like him.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/11/donald-trump-says-will-consequences-buzzfeed-attacks-cnn-mocks/
CNN alleged that Trump has a sex fetish which is watching woman pissing! I've not seen a news media and an incumbent president squabbled in a news conference before. This shows that Trump is really unwelcome as the president. Even UK media doesn't like him.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/11/donald-trump-says-will-consequences-buzzfeed-attacks-cnn-mocks/
Thursday, January 12, 2017
US should stop the pissing match! Get real and put money where your mouth is!
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2061560/beijing-will-retaliate-if-us-tries-block-chinas-access
If USA wants to stop China or kick China out of South China Sea (SCS), it has to go to war with China. It's better to do it now than later. Once China has 3 aircraft carriers, it will have control of SCS. Therefore, USA should stop the pissing match and get real with some actions like starting a war with China. If not, USA should keep its mouth shut and remain silent forever because it will lose total control of SCS when China has 3 aircraft carriers. This is the harsh fact of life!
I don't advocate or promote SCS war but it's just useless to start a pissing match with nothing being done. Either we accept the inevitable outcome or we change the ensuing outcome. USA is not ready to start a SCS war but it is only willing to start a useless pissing match with China by dragging other Asia countries like SG and SK into it.
If USA wants to stop China or kick China out of South China Sea (SCS), it has to go to war with China. It's better to do it now than later. Once China has 3 aircraft carriers, it will have control of SCS. Therefore, USA should stop the pissing match and get real with some actions like starting a war with China. If not, USA should keep its mouth shut and remain silent forever because it will lose total control of SCS when China has 3 aircraft carriers. This is the harsh fact of life!
I don't advocate or promote SCS war but it's just useless to start a pissing match with nothing being done. Either we accept the inevitable outcome or we change the ensuing outcome. USA is not ready to start a SCS war but it is only willing to start a useless pissing match with China by dragging other Asia countries like SG and SK into it.
South Korea underestimated China's reaction on THAAD.
As the ruling party still insists on THAAD, China has upped the ante with a ban on 19 korean cosmetics after blockage of korean entertainment artistes.
if SG also underestimates China's reaction and insists on state immunity for our tanks, we may not get our tanks back because state immunity is NOT in force under UN. State immunity is a privilege extended to a foreign country and can be withdrawn or revoked when the political relationship between the 2 nations turns south.
Wednesday, January 11, 2017
What is state immunity?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_immunity
Not in force yet! Therefore, it is still a privilege and China has the prerogative to seize and confiscate our tanks unless state immunity is extended to SG out of goodwill.
Not in force yet! Therefore, it is still a privilege and China has the prerogative to seize and confiscate our tanks unless state immunity is extended to SG out of goodwill.
China is preparing for the worst scenario.
China military is trying to familiarize with the aviation routes in preparation for the possible worst scenario in the future.
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201701100021.html
If Trump rejects the one-China policy upon inauguration, China will impose economic sanctions against Taiwan and also take military actions to surround Taiwan. As China is anticipating USA and Japan to come to help Taiwan, it has to familiarize with the aviation routes around Japan for future military confrontations. Tension is indeed rising in South China Sea.
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201701100021.html
If Trump rejects the one-China policy upon inauguration, China will impose economic sanctions against Taiwan and also take military actions to surround Taiwan. As China is anticipating USA and Japan to come to help Taiwan, it has to familiarize with the aviation routes around Japan for future military confrontations. Tension is indeed rising in South China Sea.
The truth behind the comfort women settlement.
USA was behind the comfort women settlement between japan and south korea because USA wanted them to bury the hatchet so that they could work together to contain china. USA pressured President Park to accept the unfair comfort women settlement from Japan and this irked the South Koreans. There’s no reason for Japan to complain to USA about South Korea if USA was not involved in the settlement as this matter was just between the 2 nations.
Tuesday, January 10, 2017
Alien's hand skeleton found in Peru.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4097782/Is-proof-ALIENS-Peru-Mysterious-giant-claw-warped-skulls-unearthed-tunnels-deep-South-American-desert.html
This hand skeleton has 3 long fingers with 6 sections which is unlike a human or ape's hand.
Is this the holy grail that proves alien existed in the past?
This hand skeleton has 3 long fingers with 6 sections which is unlike a human or ape's hand.
Is this the holy grail that proves alien existed in the past?
Singapore has admitted that we're at the mercy of HK court.
http://news.asiaone.com/news/asian-opinions/terrex-vehicles-ball-now-hks-court
State immunity is a privilege (not an entitlement) that can be extended and also can be revoked. Therefore, there is no such protection under international law because state immunity is based on political relationship between 2 nations. The truth is out finally and we're really at the mercy of HK court. If HK doesn't extend this privilege to SG because we're so anti-China, HK has the right to seize and confiscate our tanks. We can only shut up and suck our thumb in a corner while waiting for the kind gesture from HK.
State immunity is a privilege (not an entitlement) that can be extended and also can be revoked. Therefore, there is no such protection under international law because state immunity is based on political relationship between 2 nations. The truth is out finally and we're really at the mercy of HK court. If HK doesn't extend this privilege to SG because we're so anti-China, HK has the right to seize and confiscate our tanks. We can only shut up and suck our thumb in a corner while waiting for the kind gesture from HK.
High interest rate environment is coming! - Part 2
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-10/china-factory-prices-rising-fastest-in-5-years-adds-to-reflation?cmpid=yhoo.headline&yptr=yahoo
Inflation is coming! Please read our previous post below for more details.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2016/11/high-interest-rate-environment-is-coming.html
Inflation is coming! Please read our previous post below for more details.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2016/11/high-interest-rate-environment-is-coming.html
Singapore household debt is at an alarming level.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/household-debt-singapore-trends-causes-174221552.html
A slowdown in our economy will cause huge stresses in household debts which will greatly reduce our economy and this will become a vicious cycle. Higher interest rates are coming and will cause a slowdown in our economy. Be prepared for the worst!
A slowdown in our economy will cause huge stresses in household debts which will greatly reduce our economy and this will become a vicious cycle. Higher interest rates are coming and will cause a slowdown in our economy. Be prepared for the worst!
Monday, January 9, 2017
China warns SG after our defence minister's speech.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/china-urges-caution-with-words-actions-on-terrex-issue/3424574.html
We should be careful about what we say if we want our tanks back as our tanks are in their premise.
We should be careful about what we say if we want our tanks back as our tanks are in their premise.
Malaysia is trying to cripple SG economy now!
http://news.asiaone.com/news/business/malaysia-build-giant-64-billion-port-carey-island
Beside China containment on SG, Malaysia is also trying to steal SG port business now! SG will have a harder time to survive in the future.
Beside China containment on SG, Malaysia is also trying to steal SG port business now! SG will have a harder time to survive in the future.
Our defence minister is an expert in international and HK laws! Wow!
http://news.asiaone.com/news/singapore/seizure-saf-armoured-vehicles-hong-kong-against-international-law-ng-eng-hen
When did our defence minister, a medical doctor, become an expert in international and HK laws. If our SG tanks en route to HK was legal, there's no basis for our tanks to be detained in HK and HK wouldn't have proclaimed that the detainment was due to improper documentation.
We're making a BIG mistake to declare that HK contravened international law and its own HK laws just to detain SG tanks especially our tanks are still being seized in HK.
When did our defence minister, a medical doctor, become an expert in international and HK laws. If our SG tanks en route to HK was legal, there's no basis for our tanks to be detained in HK and HK wouldn't have proclaimed that the detainment was due to improper documentation.
We're making a BIG mistake to declare that HK contravened international law and its own HK laws just to detain SG tanks especially our tanks are still being seized in HK.
Asia economies will be greatly affected by Taiwan and China relationship in 2017. Why?
20 Jan 2017 will be the inauguration of USA president (Trump) and if he chooses to ignore the one-china policy that the current ruling Taiwan government refuses to recognise, China will begin to impose economic sanctions against Taiwan in 2017.
If USA and Japan support and go to the aid of Taiwan, China will send its navy to surround and block international trading for Taiwan to force the ruling party to give up.
We MUST NOT underestimate the resolve of China because Taiwan is a province of China and China won't let it go at any cost. As such, USA resolution won't be as strong as China in this sense.
It doesn't matter whether China will win or lose this battle to take back Taiwan because China will keep on trying no matter what at any cost. Is USA ready to take on China for the numerous attempts that China is resolved to undertake?
Not to forget 1.4b China people will support its China government to retake Taiwan as they also recognise that Taiwan is part of China. Good luck to Asia in 2017!
If USA and Japan support and go to the aid of Taiwan, China will send its navy to surround and block international trading for Taiwan to force the ruling party to give up.
We MUST NOT underestimate the resolve of China because Taiwan is a province of China and China won't let it go at any cost. As such, USA resolution won't be as strong as China in this sense.
It doesn't matter whether China will win or lose this battle to take back Taiwan because China will keep on trying no matter what at any cost. Is USA ready to take on China for the numerous attempts that China is resolved to undertake?
Not to forget 1.4b China people will support its China government to retake Taiwan as they also recognise that Taiwan is part of China. Good luck to Asia in 2017!
Saturday, January 7, 2017
Trade war may go into full mode this year.
http://en.people.cn/n3/2017/0107/c90000-9163956.html
All bets are off if trade war enters into full mode and the world economies will suffer. Let's hope this won't happen as SG will suffer tremendously when international trades diminish.
All bets are off if trade war enters into full mode and the world economies will suffer. Let's hope this won't happen as SG will suffer tremendously when international trades diminish.
Tension rising in EU.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/us-tanks-roll-germany-bolster-nato-deterrent-125446262.html
I don't know who is provocating who in this article when Europe is building up military strength against Russia and USA is involved again. Look like US presence always brings tension and war just like in South China Sea and Middle East. The world is definitely a better place without USA.
I don't know who is provocating who in this article when Europe is building up military strength against Russia and USA is involved again. Look like US presence always brings tension and war just like in South China Sea and Middle East. The world is definitely a better place without USA.
Baltic dry index - 983
Today, Thursday, January O5 2017, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 14 points, reaching 983 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
US rig count - 665
HOUSTON (AP) — The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. increased by seven this week to 665.
A year ago, 664 rigs were active. Depressed energy prices have curtailed exploration, although the rig count has been rebounding in recent weeks.
Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. said Friday that 529 rigs sought oil and 135 explored for natural gas this week. One was listed as miscellaneous.
New Mexico and Texas each gained three rigs, Louisiana added two and Colorado, Ohio and Pennsylvania each added one.
Wyoming declined by two rigs and Alaska lost one.
Arkansas, California, Kansas, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Utah and West Virginia were all unchanged.
The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May at 404.
Friday, January 6, 2017
Let's stop harping on South China Sea for the new year as world economies won't be good.
USA is good at fabricating false intelligence and also is a great storyteller.
USA interfered in South China Sea (SCS) in the name of freedom of navigation (FON). Let's check out the facts. USA endorsed China's claims on SCS at the end of WW2 because it sent USA naval vessels to accompany China to retake the islands. Thus, China has been proclaiming the SCS rights for the past 70 years already.
Is there really a concern for freedom of navigation. There is not a single case of commercial liners being stopped by China in SCS over 70 years. Furthermore, commercial liners do not want to sail through Spratly islands because of the treacherous terrain like reefs and rocks. Please see the commercial sea routes for SCS below.
US intelligence stands firm on Russia finding
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/us-intelligence-chiefs-stand-firm-on-russia-findings/3417456.html
The US intelligence also stood firm on Iraq weapons of mass destruction and attacked Iraq without UN mandate. After so many years since the downfall of Saddem, UN and USA couldn't find any WMDs in Iraq.
USA is really good at fabricating false intel just for its own political interest.
The US intelligence also stood firm on Iraq weapons of mass destruction and attacked Iraq without UN mandate. After so many years since the downfall of Saddem, UN and USA couldn't find any WMDs in Iraq.
USA is really good at fabricating false intel just for its own political interest.
AMKTC vs AHTC
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/avoid-premature-speculation-on-ang-mo-kio-town-council-case-workers-party-084355478.html
PAP has been harping on AHTC for a long time. It's time we harp on AMKTC now! Which is more serious? AHTC without CPIB investigation or AMKTC with CPIB investigation?
PAP has been harping on AHTC for a long time. It's time we harp on AMKTC now! Which is more serious? AHTC without CPIB investigation or AMKTC with CPIB investigation?
AI trumps humans again!
http://www.scmp.com/tech/apps-gaming/article/2059568/winning-online-go-master-revealed-be-ai-programme-deepmind
This is a significant step forward for AI. Weiqi is far more complex than international chess and the heuristic process involved in playing weiqi is far more advanced than international chess. There is no way for computer to analyse all the permutations because it exceeds the computing capacity. Instead, this advance Alphago is interpreting weiqi based on logic which is simply amazing.
In our previous posting about the new social structure, it looks more probable that the future is coming earlier than thought with the advancement of AI.
This is a significant step forward for AI. Weiqi is far more complex than international chess and the heuristic process involved in playing weiqi is far more advanced than international chess. There is no way for computer to analyse all the permutations because it exceeds the computing capacity. Instead, this advance Alphago is interpreting weiqi based on logic which is simply amazing.
In our previous posting about the new social structure, it looks more probable that the future is coming earlier than thought with the advancement of AI.
US debt is reaching 20T soon!
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/05/the-associated-press-figures-on-government-spending-and-debt.html
The day of reckoning will come and it will come down hard and harsh on USA. 20T debt is no joke and Trump will increase the debt further for USA because of fiscal spending and tax reduction.
Once the confidence in USD starts to waver, USA will collapse and bring the world down with it.
The day of reckoning will come and it will come down hard and harsh on USA. 20T debt is no joke and Trump will increase the debt further for USA because of fiscal spending and tax reduction.
Once the confidence in USD starts to waver, USA will collapse and bring the world down with it.
Thursday, January 5, 2017
Nikkei index is overbought now!
Having ascended to around 19600 in just 1 day after our recent buy call, Nikkei futures has no more oomph to go much higher and a mini correction has to take place because the market has digested all the positive news and anticipations for the foreseeable future. This is what we call "buy on rumour and sell on fact".
Let's use binomial probability to detect the change.
Let's use binomial probability to detect the change.
Current futures = 19500 (Today closing)
Expected futures = 18500
Date from 5 Jan 17 to 10 Mar 17 = 64 days
Upside deviation for past 1 month= 2.51%
Downside deviation for past 1 month = -1.32%
Risk-free rate = 2.46% as of 4 Jan 16
After inputting all these parameters, the downside probability is 54.2% vs upside probability of 45.8% which is a stark contrast to our posting 2 days ago. The stark outcome is due to changes in some parameters and is the reason for our buy call termination.
USA is trying to get back at South Korea.
USA is trying to get back at South Korea over Qualcomm fine. South Korea has to fight trade wars against China and USA now.
Wednesday, January 4, 2017
SG tanks are still impounded by HK.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/singapore-armoured-vehicles-still-impounded-hong-kong-authorities-062118592.html
The length of impoundment will indicate how angry China is with SG for our role in supporting USA to contain China. China no longer believes in what we say but rather what we do. We can say pro-China remarks now but China won't trust SG anymore. We have to walk our talk now for China to believe in SG because China no longer treats SG as a Chinese nation. Without this chinese emotional tie, things will be tough moving forward.
The length of impoundment will indicate how angry China is with SG for our role in supporting USA to contain China. China no longer believes in what we say but rather what we do. We can say pro-China remarks now but China won't trust SG anymore. We have to walk our talk now for China to believe in SG because China no longer treats SG as a Chinese nation. Without this chinese emotional tie, things will be tough moving forward.
South Korea ruling party is still adamant about THAAD installation.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/korea-vows-us-missile-system-opposition-lawmakers-head-063749858.html
South Korea economy will continue to languish because of its obstinacy to side with USA. THAAD will NOT be able to defend against North Korea mobile rockets launchers which are low attitudes weapons. North Korea has more than 10,000 such rockets which the THAAD cannot defend against. Therefore, USA should stop lying about its ulterior motive of THAAD and treat everyone like idiots.
South Korea economy will continue to languish because of its obstinacy to side with USA. THAAD will NOT be able to defend against North Korea mobile rockets launchers which are low attitudes weapons. North Korea has more than 10,000 such rockets which the THAAD cannot defend against. Therefore, USA should stop lying about its ulterior motive of THAAD and treat everyone like idiots.
Tuesday, January 3, 2017
There is no turning back for Singapore anymore.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-03/china-starts-freight-train-to-london-as-xi-promotes-trade-ties
China is using land freights to replace or reduce sea freights through Singapore. Even if we were to kowtow to China, it wouldn't change anything as China had invested a huge sum of money for the one-belt-one-road economic developments.
This year will be the harbinger for more bad economic growth for Singapore because China is trying to cripple our economy for our support with USA to contain China. This is the price we will be paying and our future generations will suffer because of our mistake.
China is using land freights to replace or reduce sea freights through Singapore. Even if we were to kowtow to China, it wouldn't change anything as China had invested a huge sum of money for the one-belt-one-road economic developments.
This year will be the harbinger for more bad economic growth for Singapore because China is trying to cripple our economy for our support with USA to contain China. This is the price we will be paying and our future generations will suffer because of our mistake.
Japan stock index (Nikkei 225) has more upsides! - Part 2
Current futures = 19080 (last closing)
Expected futures = 19600
Date from 2 Jan 17 to 10 Mar 17 = 67 days
Upside deviation for Dec 2016= 1.45%
Downside deviation for Dec 2016 = -1.32%
Risk-free rate = 2.45% as of 30 December 16
As Nikkei has risen more than 1000 points from our buy call, it has shown that Nikkei has digested all the exigent circumstances like Brexit and Trump victory. Therefore, the past data will no longer have any bearing on the future and we’ll only use December 2016 for our data analysis.
After inputing all the above parameters, binomial probability for upside is 63.9% and downside is 36.1%. Therefore, if the fundamental factors like yen weaknesses and interest rate rises do not change, Nikkei will continue to rise further.
Part 1.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2016/12/japan-stock-index-nikkei-225-has-more.html
China refuses to grant South Korea air rights.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/transport/south-korea-considers-%E2%80%9Cmeasures%E2%80%9D-as-china-blocks-charter-flights
This is expected when South Korea tried to install THAAD defence system. When you tried to hurt my country, I won't do business with you. This is a basic principle that is present everywhere.
Indonesia also does the same thing by blocking JP Morgan.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/indonesia-ends-jpmorgan-partnerships-on-downgrade-okezone-says
This is expected when South Korea tried to install THAAD defence system. When you tried to hurt my country, I won't do business with you. This is a basic principle that is present everywhere.
Indonesia also does the same thing by blocking JP Morgan.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/indonesia-ends-jpmorgan-partnerships-on-downgrade-okezone-says
Sunday, January 1, 2017
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