Stock calls for 24 November 2017

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
11/24/17	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	7.59	0	Buy
11/24/17	DBS Vickers	Thai Beverage	0.94	1.07	Buy
11/24/17	OCBC	Wheelock Properties	1.91	2.27	Buy

OMG! Noble Group bankruptcy is getting real as its shares slump to its lowest price.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-24/noble-group-shares-slump-as-company-transfers-stock-to-ex-staff

The share price slump will definitely make it extremely difficult for Noble to raise funds or secure more credit facilities from the banks.  There is no way Noble can survive without a financial restructure.

It's pretty obvious that the prognosis is very bleak.  Let's recap from our previous postings.

Noble has a high debt in which it has difficulty in servicing.

Noble is producing negative cash flows.

Noble top honchos have left.

Noble is selling its golden gooses and this will saddle Noble with income losing assets.

Noble has its credit standings downgraded by all the credit rating firms.

Noble has lost a big credit facility supporter (DBS).

Noble is losing billions in 2017.

Goldman Sachs vs Societe Generale

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-forecasts-sp-500-will-rise-11-2018-135706308.html

Goldman Sachs states that S&P 500 will rise to 2850 in 2018.

However, SocGen has a different view and states that S&P 500 will end at 2500 in 2018.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/think-us-stocks-will-keep-rallying-into-2018-not-so-fast-says-socgen-2017-11-23?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

Only time will tell who is right. Let's see how this will pan out.

Most Singaporeans do not believe in the Transportation Minister Khaw.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/singaporeans-doubt-told-truth-mrt-issues-survey-060033782.html

The survey shows that most Singaporeans do not trust or believe in Minister Khaw.  Khaw was labelled as the S$8 dollar man in the past because he said medical cost was cheap in SG as he only paid S$8 for his heart surgery.  However, there was never any S$8 medical plan for ordinary Singaporeans.  A simple x-ray would cost at least S$15 in SG.

I think the Singapore government has lost touch with the people on the ground again.  Attributing the SMRT failures to ground employees and French Thales computer system is akin to disavow the political responsibility and governance because SMRT has been nationalized.  The government made a grave mistake to list public transportation by claiming that doing so would improve the transportation services and facilities.  However, the SMRT CEO focused on P&L because the pay & bonus were based on financial performances instead of safety and better services.  In the end, the government had no choice but to nationalize SMRT due to frequent breakdowns, delays and accidents.

Bukit Sembawang - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/02/17	DBS Vickers	Bukit Sembawang	4.85	7.55	Buy	Takeover target

Breadtalk - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/08/16	OCBC	Breadtalk	1.1	1.09	Sell
02/26/16	DIR	Breadtalk	1.04	1.18	Outperform	PER19.6x FY16
02/26/16	OCBC	Breadtalk	1.04	0.96	Sell	PER23x FY16
03/22/16	OCBC	Breadtalk	1.05	0.96	Sell
05/04/16	OCBC	Breadtalk	1.135	0.96	Sell
05/10/16	DIR	Breadtalk	1.17	1.28	Outperform
05/11/16	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	1.15	1.42	Buy	EV/Ebitda6x FY16
06/13/16	OCBC	Breadtalk	1.15	0.96	Sell
07/08/16	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	1.135	1.45	Buy	EV/Ebitda6x FY16
07/15/16	DIR	Breadtalk	1.14	1.28	Outperform	PER19.6x FY16
08/04/16	OCBC	Breadtalk	1.12	0.96	Sell
08/05/16	DIR	Breadtalk	1.1	1.17	Outperform	PER19.6x FY16
08/05/16	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	1.1	1.45	Buy
08/08/16	OCBC	Breadtalk	1.065	0.99	Sell	PER23x FY16/17
10/03/16	OCBC	Breadtalk	1.005	0.99	Sell
11/04/16	DIR	Breadtalk	1	1.13	Outperform	PER16.7x FY17
11/04/16	OCBC	Breadtalk	1	1.07	Hold	PER23x FY16/17
11/17/16	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	1.09	1.45	Buy
01/02/17	DIR	Breadtalk	1.285	1.42	Outperform	PER20.9x FY17
01/03/17	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	1.16	1.45	Buy	EV/Ebitda5x FY17, PER16.5x FY17
01/26/17	OCBC	Breadtalk	1.225	1.07	Hold	PER23x FY17
02/24/17	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	1.31	1.5	Buy	EV/Ebitda 6x FY17
02/24/17	OCBC	Breadtalk	1.31	1.21	Hold	PER24x FY17
04/04/17	DBS Vickers	Breadtalk	1.355	1.69	Buy
05/04/17	DIR	Breadtalk	1.395	1.53	Outperform	PER20.9x FY17
05/04/17	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	1.395	1.6	Buy	EV/Ebitda 6x FY17
05/04/17	OCBC	Breadtalk	1.395	1.21	Hold
06/09/17	DBS Vickers	Breadtalk	1.65	1.92	Buy	Sum of parts
07/04/17	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	1.515	1.6	Buy
08/01/17	DBS Vickers	Breadtalk	1.75	1.92	Buy
08/03/17	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	1.795	1.83	Neutral	EV/Ebitda 6x FY18
08/03/17	DBS Vickers	Breadtalk	1.795	2.04	Buy	PER18x FY18
10/31/17	DBS Vickers	Breadtalk	1.555	2.04	Buy
11/06/17	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	1.615	1.83	Buy	EV/Ebitda 6x FY18
11/07/17	DBS Vickers	Breadtalk	1.605	2.01	Buy	Sum of parts

Stock calls for 23 November 2017

11/23/17	OCBC	M1	1.77	1.65	Hold
11/23/17	DBS Vickers	OCBC	12.01	13.5	Buy	GGM, PB1.3x FY18

Huat ah! Singapore economic growth for Q3 2017 is 5.2%.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-revises-up-growth-forecast-for-2017-as-q3-gdp-grows-5-9431172

Singapore economic growth is 5.2% in Q3 2017 because of exceptionally good exports, especially to China.  Therefore, MTI is forecasting a 3.5% economic growth for 2017.

SG is doing tremendously well because of external factors which are basically international trading.  China has become the most important market for SG as it is our largest trading partner and the trading between China & SG is burgeoning.

Therefore, if there is a significant slowdown in China, SG will be badly impacted as there is no other country that can pick up the slack.  The bottom line is SG is heavily dependent on China now.

Singapore government is going to increase taxes in the future!

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/pm-lee-hsien-loong-tax-hike-dpm-tharman-mof-9427760

PM Lee is trying to prepare us to accept the impending tax increments in the future.

However,  Tharman said in 2015 budgetary speech that SG had enough provision for this decade.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/02/dpm-tharman-said-that-government-had.html

Well, I guess we're on different time scales as the government's timescale is a lot faster.

Boustead Projects - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/27/17	CIMB	Boustead Projects	0.805	1.04	Add	RNAV (40% discount)
05/24/17	CIMB	Boustead Projects	0.86	1.04	Add	RNAV (40% discount)

Boustead - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/17/16	CIMB	Boustead	0.76	0.85	Add	Sum of parts (25% discount)
05/18/16	CIMB	Boustead	0.755	0.85	Add
08/17/16	CIMB	Boustead	0.77	0.85	Add	Sum of parts (25% discount)
05/24/17	CIMB	Boustead	0.88	0.96	Add	Sum of parts (20% discount)

Stock calls for 22 November 2017

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
11/22/17	OCBC	Hutchison Port	0.42	0.42	Hold	Buy @ $0.39
11/22/17	Lim & Tan	MIT	0.245	0.32	Buy	PER8x FY18
11/22/17	UOB Kay Hian	Oxley	0.655	0.74	Buy	RNAV (20% discount)
11/22/17	OCBC	Roxy-Pacific	0.52	0.52	Hold
11/22/17	Macquarie	Singtel	3.69	4.32	Outperform

China financial regulations are hurting Alibaba's businesses.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-suspends-approval-internet-micro-loan-firms-sources-150618137--sector.html

Alibaba's ANT Financial and Qudian took a hit after China clamped down on micro-loan market.

As we can see, Alipay and ANT Financial are impacted by China regulations.

China government is targeting Jack Ma of Alibaba now.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/07/political-battles-are-playing-out-in.html

We stated this before in our previous post above.  Therefore, we are providing the update now.

China actress Zhaowei made her first pot of investment gain from Alibaba pictures by manipulating the stock prices with some hype news and she was caught this time by performing the same trick again.  She was trying to take control of a 10B RMB company with 3B RMB cash but the China regulator believed she didn't have so much money for the takeover and investigated her money sources.  It turned out that she took a 1.5B RMB bank loan and also got a 1.5B RMB personal loan.  There was a rumour that the personal loan might come from Jiang Zemin's financial controller who was residing in HK or Jack Ma who was also closely associated with Jiang Zemin.  Therefore, China regulator fined and banned her from the stock market for 5 years.

Zhaowei's husband is also a person of interest to the China authority because he was a chauffeur to a corrupted China official prior to his marriage to Zhaowei.  The chauffeur became rich overnight and married Zhaowei.  The China authority believed he was laundering money for the corrupted China official.  Therefore, the China authority is keeping a tab on this couple.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-zhaowei-trading-ban/china-bars-billionaire-actress-zhao-wei-from-stock-trading-for-five-years-idUSKBN1DA0T1

China's central bank has already outlined that all mobile payment systems must go through a central clearinghouse because China wants to keep track and monitor all the monies that flow in and out of China.  Therefore, Alipay is no longer an unbridled conduit to move money without the knowledge of the government.  The government is also investigating Alipay for Jiang Zemin's funds.

https://www.ft.com/content/3bcb5150-7cce-11e7-9108-edda0bcbc928

Jiang Zemin had been trying to disrupt China's economy to dethrone Xi Jinping's and wished to take over the leadership with his own henchman.  Therefore, he had been funding many "entrepreneurs" and making them super rich to increase his own influences in China.  This is the reason for the falls of many billionaires in China recently.

Jiang Zemin tried to cause the stock market to collapse but to no avail so far.  Then, he tried to destabilize the China financial system by getting his "entrepreneurs" to take huge local loans in billions to buy overseas assets (companies and assets) without any prudent financial consideration.  Through this method, he could cash out the overseas assets at a later date and leave the colossal debts to China with no payback intention.  This would definitely crash China financial system in the future.

Subsequently, President Xi got wind of Jiang's intention and action and started to control the outflows of money with many financial regulations.

If you look at the latest Jack Ma's movie, he was apologizing and asking for mercy from the POLICE at the end of the movie for the mistake he had made.  Many people said that he was sending a subtle message to the China's authority through this movie.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/11/alibaba-jack-mas-movie.html

Malaysia has called for KL-SG HSR tender on 22 November.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Nikkei-Markets/Malaysia-To-Invite-Pitches-For-KL-Singapore-High-Speed-Rail-Project-Lead

China will definitely participate in this KL-SG HSR tender in Malaysia after completing the HSR presentation in SG.

Blackgold - Stock calls

08/28/17

phillip

Blackgold

0.118

0.16

Trading Buy

PER10x

Best World - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/22/16	CIMB	Best World	0.6	0.97	Add	PER10.6x CY17
05/12/16	CIMB	Best World	0.93	1.12	Add	PER10.6x CY17
07/04/16	CIMB	Best World	1.33	1.61	Add	PER12.4x CY17
08/08/16	CIMB	Best World	1.655	1.98	Add	PER12.4x CY17
08/24/16	Kim Eng	Best World	1.75	2.63	Buy	PER16x FY17
09/26/16	CIMB	Best World	1.49	2.05	Add	PER16.1x FY17
11/07/16	CIMB	Best World	1.495	2.21	Add	PER16.1x CY17
11/07/16	Kim Eng	Best World	1.495	2.16	Buy	PER16x FY17, Up from $2.11
12/06/16	CIMB	Best World	1.34	2.21	Add
01/16/17	CLSA	Best World	1.46	2.5	Buy	PER18x FY17
02/01/17	DBS Vickers	Best World	1.83	2.36	Buy	PER16x FY17
02/23/17	CIMB	Best World	1.93	2.97	Add	PER16.1x CY18
02/27/17	DBS Vickers	Best World	2.03	2.44	Buy	PER16x FY17
03/24/17	Kim Eng	Best World	2.54	2.34	Buy	PER16x FY17
05/11/17	CIMB	Best World	2.79	3.05	Add	PER16.1x CY18
05/11/17	Kim Eng	Best World	2.79	3.53	Buy	PEG0.75x
05/12/17	DBS Vickers	Best World	2.84	3.31	Buy	PER18x FY17
05/22/17	DBS Vickers	Best World	1.44	1.65	Buy	1 for 2 stock split
07/19/17	CIMB	Best World	1.345	1.7	Add	PER18x CY18
08/08/17	Kim Eng	Best World	1.59	1.88	Buy	PER19x FY18, PEG0.7x
08/08/17	CIMB	Best World	1.59	1.8	Add	PER18x CY18
08/10/17	DBS Vickers	Best World	1.525	1.82	Buy	PER18x FY18
08/17/17	DBS Vickers	Best World	1.34	1.45	Hold	PER17x FY17
09/07/17	CIMB	Best World	1.235	1.8	Add	PER18x CY18
11/09/17	Kim Eng	Best World	1.315	1.88	Buy	PER19x FY18
11/10/17	CIMB	Best World	1.26	1.4	Hold	PER14.6x CY18
11/10/17	DBS Vickers	Best World	1.26	1.45	Hold	PER17x FY18

Stock calls for 21 November 2017

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
11/21/17	Amfrasers	Accordia Golf Trust	0.7	0.78	Buy
11/21/17	DMG & Partners	DBS	23.86	23.33	Neutral	GGM
11/21/17	phillip	Golden Energy	0.42	0.59	Buy	PER10x
11/21/17	Lim & Tan	Noble	0.193	0	Avoid
11/21/17	OCBC	Sembcorp Industries	3.05	3.59	Buy
11/21/17	phillip	SGX	7.52	8.31	Accumulate	PER23.9x

China and Russia are accumulating gold reserves!

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/neck-neck-russian-chinese-official-gold-reserves/

China and Russia are accumulating gold reserves in preparation for the loss of confidence or collapse in USD.  It is without a doubt that there is a rise in non-USD trading in the world, be it using RMB or Euro, especially in the Middle East and Russia.  Although the USD constitutes around 60% of international trading (including foreign reserves of other countries), this figure has been dwindling over the years because countries have been diversifying their foreign reserves and also the rise in non-USD trading.

Therefore, China and Russia are accumulating gold for this upcoming currency war.  Many analysts believe that China and Russia are under-declaring their gold reserves of 1850ton & 1800ton respectively and there are more golds hidden in both countries.

PM Lee should have known it better than to antagonize Malaysia.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/khairy-lambasts-hsien-loong-over-061534483.html

PM Lee has nothing better to do but to antagonize Malaysia.

We did state previously that Malaysia won't be accommodative towards SG anymore because it had the support of China.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/10/malaysia-to-impose-s8-vep-on-sg-cars.html

Yes, SG will be the chairman of ASEAN 2018 but the Philippines will be the ASEAN facilitator between China & ASEAN.  Many ASEAN countries are also standing behind China now and it will be unwise for SG to do otherwise because SG will be ostracized in ASEAN.  SG shouldn't antagonize other ASEAN members now or else the ASEAN summit won't be smooth sailing next year for Singapore.