CapitaRetail China - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/04/19	OCBC	CapitaRetail China	1.48	1.42	Hold
02/04/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaRetail China	1.48	1.65	Buy	DCF
02/15/19	Phillip	CapitaRetail China	1.39	1.66	Accumulate
03/21/19	Amfrasers	CapitaRetail China	1.52	1.61	Buy	DDM
04/03/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaRetail China	1.57	1.65	Buy
04/26/19	OCBC	CapitaRetail China	1.51	1.5	Hold
06/11/19	OCBC	CapitaRetail China	1.56	1.5	Hold
06/12/19	OCBC	CapitaRetail China	1.53	1.35	Sell
06/12/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaRetail China	1.53	1.65	Buy
06/12/19	Lim & Tan	CapitaRetail China	1.53	0	Hold
06/14/19	OCBC	CapitaRetail China	1.5	1.38	Hold
06/19/19	Phillip	CapitaRetail China	1.55	1.66	Accumulate

Capitamall Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/22/19	CIMB	Capitamall Trust	2.26	2.29	Hold	DDM
01/23/19	OCBC	Capitamall Trust	2.27	2.12	Hold
01/24/19	Phillip	Capitamall Trust	2.31	2.09	Neutral	DDM, PB1.06x FY19
01/24/19	Kim Eng	Capitamall Trust	2.31	2.25	Hold	DDM
01/24/19	OCBC	Capitamall Trust	2.31	2.25	Hold
01/24/19	DBS Vickers	Capitamall Trust	2.31	2.44	Buy
01/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Capitamall Trust	2.36	2.02	Hold	Buy @ $1.84
02/15/19	Phillip	Capitamall Trust	2.38	2.09	Neutral
02/28/19	Kim Eng	Capitamall Trust	2.42	2.25	Hold
03/14/19	DMG & Partners	Capitamall Trust	2.39	2.2	Neutral	DDM
04/04/19	Kim Eng	Capitamall Trust	2.41	2.4	Hold	DDM
04/24/19	OCBC	Capitamall Trust	2.32	2.25	Hold
04/25/19	DBS Vickers	Capitamall Trust	2.36	2.55	Buy
04/25/19	OCBC	Capitamall Trust	2.36	2.32	Hold
04/26/19	Phillip	Capitamall Trust	2.39	2.21	Neutral	DDM
04/26/19	CIMB	Capitamall Trust	2.39	2.39	Hold	DDM
05/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	Capitamall Trust	2.44	2.65	Buy	DDM
06/06/19	OCBC	Capitamall Trust	2.46	2.33	Hold
06/19/19	Phillip	Capitamall Trust	2.57	2.21	Neutral
06/21/19	UOB Kay Hian	Capitamall Trust	2.58	2.65	Hold
06/25/19	Kim Eng	Capitamall Trust	2.6	2.4	Hold
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	Capitamall Trust	2.71	2.2	Neutral

Stock calls for 19 July 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.46	1.5	Buy	DCF
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	Cache Logistics	0.78	0.75	Hold	DCF
07/19/19	DMG & Partners	CapitaCommercial	2.15	1.98	Neutral	DDM
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	1.43	1.41	Hold	PER12x FY19
07/19/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel Corp	6.59	7.3	Buy	Sum of parts
07/19/19	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.59	8.41	Add
07/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Corp	6.59	7.61	Buy
07/19/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	6.59	0	Hold
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Commercial	2.07	2.25	Buy	DCF
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Logistics	1.61	1.85	Buy
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.45	1.65	Buy	DCF
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.23	0.34	Buy	PER16x FY20
07/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	5.32	4.8	Sell
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	SATS	5.32	5	Hold	DCF
07/19/19	CIMB	SATS	5.32	5.4	Hold	PER21.9x CY20
07/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	Soilbuild Reit	0.615	0.6	Hold
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	Soilbuild Reit	0.615	0.63	Hold	DCF

China has started to sell US treasuries. - Part 5

https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3018924/chinas-may-holdings-us-treasuries-dip-third-straight-month-two

China sold US treasuries in May 2019 again.

We've explained the selloff in our post below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries.html

Capitaland - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Capitaland	3.11	4	Buy
01/03/19	OCBC	Capitaland	3.07	3.96	Buy	RNAV (20% discount)
01/07/19	CIMB	Capitaland	3.06	3.55	Add	RNAV (35% discount)
01/15/19	DBS Vickers	Capitaland	3.27	3.62	Buy
01/15/19	Phillip	Capitaland	3.27	4	Accumulate	RNAV (20% discount), PB0.75x FY18
02/20/19	Lim & Tan	Capitaland	3.39	0	Buy
02/21/19	OCBC	Capitaland	3.43	3.98	Buy	RNAV
02/21/19	Phillip	Capitaland	3.43	4	Accumulate	PB0.75x FY19
02/21/19	CIMB	Capitaland	3.43	3.56	Add	RNAV (35% discount)
02/21/19	DBS Vickers	Capitaland	3.43	3.62	Buy
03/18/19	OCBC	Capitaland	3.44	3.98	Buy
03/21/19	Lim & Tan	Capitaland	3.47	0	Buy
03/26/19	CIMB	Capitaland	3.44	3.56	Add
04/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Capitaland	3.65	4.4	Buy
04/02/19	Macquarie	Capitaland	3.69	3.9	Outperform	RNAV (30% discount)
04/02/19	OCBC	Capitaland	3.69	3.98	Buy
05/02/19	Phillip	Capitaland	3.53	4	Accumulate	RNAV (20% discount)
05/02/19	Lim & Tan	Capitaland	3.53	0	Hold
05/03/19	OCBC	Capitaland	3.54	4.04	Buy
05/03/19	CIMB	Capitaland	3.54	3.56	Add
05/27/19	DBS Vickers	Capitaland	3.28	4	Buy	RNAV (25% discount)
06/12/19	DBS Vickers	Capitaland	3.41	4	Buy
06/18/19	Macquarie	Capitaland	3.42	4.1	Outperform	RNAV (25% discount)
07/05/19	DBS Vickers	Capitaland	3.69	4	Buy
07/15/19	Phillip	Capitaland	3.69	4	Accumulate
07/15/19	CIMB	Capitaland	3.69	4.15	Add	RNAV (35% discount)
07/15/19	OCBC	Capitaland	3.69	4.04	Buy

CapitaCommercial - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/19	Phillip	CapitaCommercial	1.75	1.9	Accumulate
01/14/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.82	2.11	Buy	DDM
01/24/19	OCBC	CapitaCommercial	1.83	1.68	Hold
01/25/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.85	2.16	Buy	DDM
01/25/19	DMG & Partners	CapitaCommercial	1.85	1.86	Neutral	DDM
01/25/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaCommercial	1.85	2	Buy	DCF
01/25/19	Lim & Tan	CapitaCommercial	1.85	0	Hold
01/28/19	OCBC	CapitaCommercial	1.9	1.83	Hold
01/28/19	CIMB	CapitaCommercial	1.9	1.94	Add
02/15/19	Phillip	CapitaCommercial	1.86	1.93	Accumulate
03/18/19	DMG & Partners	CapitaCommercial	1.98	1.86	Neutral
03/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.92	2.16	Buy
04/22/19	Phillip	CapitaCommercial	1.93	1.93	Neutral	DDM, PB1.05x
04/22/19	DMG & Partners	CapitaCommercial	1.93	1.86	Neutral	DDM
04/22/19	OCBC	CapitaCommercial	1.93	1.88	Hold
04/22/19	CIMB	CapitaCommercial	1.93	2.03	Add	DDM
04/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.93	2.16	Buy
04/22/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaCommercial	1.93	2.1	Buy	DCF
04/22/19	Lim & Tan	CapitaCommercial	1.93	0	Hold
05/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.9	2.16	Buy
05/17/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaCommercial	1.93	2.1	Buy	DCF, PB1.15x
05/30/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.95	2.16	Buy
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	2.05	2.16	Buy
06/19/19	Phillip	CapitaCommercial	2.11	1.93	Neutral
06/24/19	OCBC	CapitaCommercial	2.14	1.88	Sell
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	CapitaCommercial	2.23	1.86	Neutral
07/17/19	OCBC	CapitaCommercial	2.18	1.88	Sell
07/17/19	Lim & Tan	CapitaCommercial	2.18	0	Hold
07/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	2.17	2.17	Hold	DDM, Buy @ $1.98
07/18/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaCommercial	2.17	2.4	Buy	DCF
07/18/19	Kim Eng	CapitaCommercial	2.17	1.8	Hold
07/18/19	OCBC	CapitaCommercial	2.17	1.92	Sell
07/18/19	CIMB	CapitaCommercial	2.17	2.25	Add

Cache Logistics - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/28/19	phillip	Cache Logistics	0.75	0.75	Neutral	DDM, PB1.14x FY19
01/28/19	DBS Vickers	Cache Logistics	0.75	0.75	Hold	DCF
01/28/19	OCBC	Cache Logistics	0.75	0.76	Hold
01/28/19	DMG & Partners	Cache Logistics	0.75	0.81	Buy	DDM
01/28/19	CIMB	Cache Logistics	0.75	0.74	Hold
01/28/19	Kim Eng	Cache Logistics	0.75	0.85	Buy
02/15/19	phillip	Cache Logistics	0.71	0.75	Neutral
03/18/19	DMG & Partners	Cache Logistics	0.72	0.81	Buy
04/18/19	OCBC	Cache Logistics	0.72	0.7	Hold
04/26/19	OCBC	Cache Logistics	0.745	0.74	Hold
04/26/19	Kim Eng	Cache Logistics	0.745	0.88	Buy
04/26/19	DBS Vickers	Cache Logistics	0.745	0.75	Hold	DCF
04/26/19	CIMB	Cache Logistics	0.745	0.74	Hold
06/17/19	DMG & Partners	Cache Logistics	0.77	0.83	Buy	DDM
06/19/19	phillip	Cache Logistics	0.79	0.75	Neutral
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	Cache Logistics	0.785	0.83	Buy

Stock calls for 18 July 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/18/19	CIMB	AEM	1.04	1.23	Add	PER10x FY20
07/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	2.17	2.17	Hold	DDM, Buy @ $1.98
07/18/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaCommercial	2.17	2.4	Buy	DCF
07/18/19	Kim Eng	CapitaCommercial	2.17	1.8	Hold
07/18/19	OCBC	CapitaCommercial	2.17	1.92	Sell
07/18/19	CIMB	CapitaCommercial	2.17	2.25	Add
07/18/19	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	1.73	1.71	Hold	DDM
07/18/19	CIMB	Keppel DC Reit	1.73	1.67	Hold	DDM
07/18/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel KBS	0.82	0.9	Buy
07/18/19	Lim & Tan	Soilbuild Reit	0.61	0	Hold
07/18/19	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.5	1.82	Buy

A banking crisis is developing in Vietnam.

The US-China trade war is causing a banking crisis to develop in Vietnam.  Why?

In order to avoid the US-China trade tariffs, many businesses are shifting their manufacturing and production factories to Vietnam.  This relocation phenomenon has caused the ire of the US and Trump has imposed 456% on Vietnam's steels re-exports.  Trump looks ready to impose more tariffs against Vietnam for other goods.

As Vietnam has a very lax bank lending regulation, many foreign businesses borrow from local banks to build factories and ramp up their productions.  If the made-in-Vietnam products are taxed with additional tariffs by the US, Vietnam's exports will drop drastically and this will impact the banking industry in Vietnam because the non-performing loans will increase tremendously.

Vietnam, with just a population of 97m, won't be able to fight the trade war against the US and has to compromise to buy more US goods to avoid the additional tariffs.

A possible bank run at Deutsche Bank?

Deutsche Bank has a simmering bank run situation now.  Why?

Although Deutsche Bank is an investment bank and not a retail bank, it is facing a simmering cash flow problem because many hedge fund managers are withdrawing their funds from Deutsche Bank.  The hedge fund managers are afraid that they won't be able to withdraw their funds if they don't act fast as they've heard of the massive withdrawal problem at Deutsche Bank.  The hedge fund managers know that Deutsche Bank is not doing well now and has to retrench 18,000 employees.

Deutsche Bank is a bank that is too big to fail because it will affect the global banking system and is much bigger than Lehman Brothers.

Bumitama - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	Bumitama	0.67	0.81	Buy
02/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	Bumitama	0.685	0.81	Buy	PER11x FY19
02/21/19	Kim Eng	Bumitama	0.69	0.96	Buy
02/26/19	DMG & Partners	Bumitama	0.67	0.67	Neutral	PER11x FY19
02/27/19	Kim Eng	Bumitama	0.675	0.97	Buy	PER13x FY19
02/28/19	DBS Vickers	Bumitama	0.665	0.85	Buy	DCF, PER13.9x FY19
04/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Bumitama	0.725	0.81	Buy
05/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Bumitama	0.69	0.81	Buy
05/15/19	DBS Vickers	Bumitama	0.69	0.8	Buy	DCF, PER18x FY19
05/17/19	DMG & Partners	Bumitama	0.7	0.62	Neutral
05/24/19	UOB Kay Hian	Bumitama	0.69	0.81	Hold
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Bumitama	0.665	0.62	Neutral
06/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	Bumitama	0.615	0.81	Buy
07/02/19	Kim Eng	Bumitama	0.63	1.01	Buy
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	Bumitama	0.605	0.75	Buy	DCF

Breadtalk - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/21/19	DBS Vickers	Breadtalk	0.88	0.92	Hold	Sum of parts
02/21/19	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	0.88	0.81	Neutral	Sum of parts
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	0.87	0.81	Neutral
05/07/19	DBS Vickers	Breadtalk	0.835	0.92	Hold
05/08/19	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	0.825	0.81	Neutral	Sum of parts
07/02/19	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	0.75	0.81	Neutral

Biolidics - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/27/19	CIMB	Biolidics	0.27	0.32	Add	EV/Sales 12x

Stock calls for 17 July 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/17/19	OCBC	CapitaCommercial	2.18	1.88	Sell
07/17/19	Lim & Tan	CapitaCommercial	2.18	0	Hold
07/17/19	OCBC	Keppel DC Reit	1.71	1.93	Buy
07/17/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel DC Reit	1.71	1.9	Buy	DCF
07/17/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.885	0.94	Buy
07/17/19	Amfrasers	Soilbuild Reit	0.615	0.609	Neutral	DDM
07/17/19	DBS Vickers	SPH Reit	1.11	1.2	Buy	DCF
07/17/19	UOB Kay Hian	Starhub	1.54	1.45	Sell	DCF
07/17/19	OCBC	Wilmar	3.83	4.26	Buy	Sum of parts

Korea-Japan trade war has just begun! - Part 2

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/south-korea-says-unveil-plans-234039827.html

As expected, the US has sent a senior diplomat to be a mediator between Japan and South Korea.

The US will NEVER let this KR-JP trade war destroy its strategic alliance in the South China Sea.  The US needs Japan and South Korea to work together to contain China.  Therefore, the US will exert political pressures on both countries to resolve their issues.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/korea-japan-trade-war-has-just-begun.html

Singapore Nodx fell 17.3% in June 2019.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/1-singapore-exports-drop-most-012835741.html

Year on year changes (YOY):

June 2019: -17.3%

May 2019: -15.9%

April 2019: -10%

March 2019: -11.7%

February 2019: 4.9%

January 2019: -10.1%

December 2018: -8.5%

November 2018: -2.6%

October 2018: 8.3%

September 2018: 8.3%

August 2018: 5%

July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)

June 2018: 1.1%

May 2018: 15.5%

April 2018: 11.8%

March 2018: -2.7%

February 2018: -5.9%

January 2018: 13%

December 2017: 3.1%

November 2017: 9.1%

October 2017: 20.9%

September 2017: -1.1%

August 2017: 16.7%

July 2017: 8.5%

June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/singapore-nodx-fell-159-in-may-2019.html

Singapore likes to offend ASEAN countries nowadays!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/myanmar-nationals-stage-protest-outside-singapore-embassy-in-us-capital-080651137.html

Mynamar is staging a protest outside SG embassy in the USA.

Singapore likes to offend ASEAN countries nowadays.  After offending Vietnam and Cambodia, SG has moved on to offend Myanmar.  Maybe our government is too free nowadays to make our presence felt in ASEAN by offending other ASEAN members.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/many-analysts-were-dead-wrong-about.html

Best World - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/28/19	DMG & Partners	Best World	2.56	2.95	Buy	DCF & PER18x
02/28/19	CIMB	Best World	2.56	2.43	Reduce	PER14.9x CY20
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Best World	2.02	2.95	Buy
04/16/19	CLSA	Best World	1.77	1.75	Sell	Up from $1.29
04/26/19	DMG & Partners	Best World	1.62	0	Cease Coverage	Suspension

Banyan Tree - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/11/19	phillip	Banyan Tree	0.57	0.76	Accumulate	Sum of parts, PB0.72x FY19
05/22/19	phillip	Banyan Tree	0.535	0.76	Accumulate	Sum of parts, PB0.7x FY19

Avi-Tech - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/07/19	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.3	0.34	Neutral
02/14/19	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.29	0.3	Neutral	DCF
03/19/19	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.29	0.3	Neutral
07/16/19	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.28	0.27	Neutral	DCF