MM2 Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/02/20	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.175	0.14	Fully Valued	Sum of parts, PER6x FY21
11/16/20	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.17	0.13	Fully Valued	Sum of parts, PER10x FY22
02/22/21	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.083	0.089	Hold	Sum of parts
04/28/21	UOB Kay Hian	MM2 Asia	0.073	0.098	Buy	Sum of parts
05/31/21	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.062	0.067	Hold
06/07/21	UOB Kay Hian	MM2 Asia	0.068	0.095	Buy	Sum of parts

Micro-Mechanics - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/24/20	Lim & Tan	Micro-Mechanics	1.78	0	Buy on weakness
08/31/20	Lim & Tan	Micro-Mechanics	2.07	0	Buy on weakness
09/07/20	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	2.2	2.5	Buy	PER18x FY21
09/18/20	UOB Kay Hian	Micro-Mechanics	2.28	2.01	Hold	EV/Ebitda9.1x, Buy @ $1.70
10/02/20	Lim & Tan	Micro-Mechanics	2.3	0	Hold
11/02/20	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	2.66	2.93	Accumulate	PER18x FY21, Ex-cash
02/01/21	Lim & Tan	Micro-Mechanics	3.64	0	Hold
02/02/21	UOB Kay Hian	Micro-Mechanics	3.75	2.87	Sell
02/08/21	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	3.58	3.35	Neutral	PER21x FY21, Ex-cash
05/03/21	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	3.33	3.02	Neutral	PER21x FY21, Ex-cash

Stock calls for 19 July 2021

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/19/21	DMG & Partners	Dairy Farm	4.09	4.78	Buy
07/19/21	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	30.12	35.6	Buy
07/19/21	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.33	1.65	Buy
07/19/21	DBS Vickers	Fu Yu	0.305	0.4	Buy
07/19/21	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	12.07	15.52	Buy

Why is Singapore including Sinovac in its official national vaccination program soon?

The Singapore government has come to terms with the reality that covid cannot be eradicated and SG needs China more than the US for its economic growth.  Therefore, the SG government will be approving and including Sinovac in its official national vaccination program soon.

Let's see the importance of China to SG and the world.

China contributed almost 27% to the world economic growth despite being the 2nd largest economy compared to the US with only 11.6% world economic contribution.

China, including HK, contributed 26.2% of SG international trading and is SG's largest trading partner compared to the US (10.7%).

Let's calculate the individual economic impacts if we were to isolate China and the US with simplified examples.

GDP calculation:

GDP = Government spendings (G) + Investments (I) + Consumption (C) + Net Exports (X-M)

X = Exports

M= Imports

For simplicity's sake, we will assume the 4 GDP components to be equitable in the following manner:

G = $1T

I = $1T

C = $1T

Net Ex = $1T

Therefore, GDP = 1+1+1+1 = $4T

Since the SG economic structure is such that the exports figure is 3 times its GDP, we will need to extrapolate this (4*3=12) into the GDP.

GDP ($4T) = 1+1+1+ (12-11)

GDP ($4T) = 1+1+1+1=4

If SG were to decouple from China and lose 26.2% of China trades (exports & imports), the economic impact could be illustrated below.

GDP = 1+1+1+ [(12*73.8%)-(11*73.8*)]

GDP = 3+ (8.856-8.118)

GDP = 3+0.738=3.738

Thus, SG would shrink from $4T to $3.738T ($0.262T loss) and experience 6.55% (0.262/4) negative economic (GDP) growth.

If SG were to decouple from the US and lose 10.7% of the US trades (exports & imports), the economic impact could be illustrated below.

GDP = 1+1+1+ [(12*89.3%)-(11*89.3%)]

GDP = 3+ (10.716-9.823)

GDP = 3+0.893=3.893

Thus, SG would shrink from $4T to $3.893T ($0.107T loss) and experience 2.675% (0.107/4) negative economic (GDP) growth.

As we can see from the 2 simplified examples, SG will experience 2.45x (6.55/2.675) more economic losses if it loses China trades.  Furthermore, there will be the multiplier effects such as the declines in investments and consumption when the net exports are falling which we have excluded in this simplified illustration.  Thus, the true economic impacts will be greater than this simplified illustration.

Any wise government will know how to choose between -6.55% and -2.675% because no citizens will vote for a government that will impoverish them.

SG will have no choice but to approve Sinovac because it cannot afford to isolate China since it needs China to support SG's economic growth.

Baltic dry index - 3039

 Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count (weekly) - 484

 Related stock: Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Who are the culprits behind the China vaccine smearing campaign?

It looks like Pfizer and Reuters are behind the smearing campaign against China vaccines because the Chairman of Reuters is also a board member of Pfizer.

SG Ministry of Health and the Health Minister Ong are facing some heat now for favouring US vaccines and badmouthing Sinovac.

The world health organization also reprimanded countries that didn't recognize and/or discriminate against its approved vaccines.

Even our ex-minister George Yeo couldn't tolerate Reuter's reporting and he made a remark about it on his FB.

The recent Lancet publication showed that Sinovac had 83.5% efficacy.

https://healthpolicy-watch.news/sinovac-vaccine/

Ho Ching, PM Lee's wife, also republicized the Lancet publication on her FB.

https://www.facebook.com/100005335308340/posts/1807336619454164/

It seemed that there might be some internal conflict within the PAP party because Ho Ching could have a closed-door meeting with the health minister to discuss the SG vaccination program instead of defending Sinovac on her FB.

Ho Ching is doing what's right for SG but some people are not.

Metro - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/25/21	Lim & Tan	Metro	0.74	0	Accumulate

Mermaid - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/29/20	Amfrasers	Mermaid	0.07	0.085	Neutral	Sum of parts

Medtecs - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
12/08/20	DBS Vickers	Medtecs	0.905	1.3	Buy	PER9.5x FY21/22
03/03/21	DBS Vickers	Medtecs	0.955	1.25	Buy	PER9.5x FY21/22
05/07/21	DBS Vickers	Medtecs	1.03	0.92	Hold	PER10x FY22, Cut from $1.05

Stock calls for 16 July 2021

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/16/21	Phillip	Fortress Minerals	0.68	0.81	Buy	PER10x FY22
07/16/21	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.46	3.06	Buy	DDM
07/16/21	Phillip	HRnetGroup	0.77	1	Buy	PER14x FY21
07/16/21	Lim & Tan	KSH	0.375	0	Accumulate
07/16/21	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Industrial	2.87	3.62	Buy	DDM
07/16/21	CIMB	SPH Reit	0.945	1.06	Add
07/16/21	Kim Eng	SPH Reit	0.945	0.8	Hold