With the USD appreciation and upcoming interest rate rises, yen has been on a devaluation trajectory which will boost its exports. Therefore, Japan stock market will benefit from this export oomph.
Let's use binomial probability to calculate the likelihood of achieving the 19,000 level.
Current index futures= 18,320
Expected index futures = 19,000
Time from 2 Dec 2016 to 10 Mar 2017 (expiry date) = 98 Days
Upside deviation for the last 12 months = 7.16%
Downside deviation for the last 12 months = -7.92%
Risk-free rate = 2.45% as of 1 Dec 2016
After inputing the above parameters, the possibilities for upside is 56.9% and downside is 43.1%.
Therefore, it is likely for nikkei to rise 680 points by 10 March 2017 than to fall 680 points.
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6 comments:
Wow! Nikkei futures has risen to 18.785 today after we posted our statistical analysis.
Nikkei futures closes at 18,960 today.
Nikkei futures closed at 19,170 on CME market which was too fast and too furious. Nikkei futures has risen 850 points after our first posting which is simply amazing.
Nikkei futures closes at 19,275 today. Nikkei futures has risen 955 points after our first posting. Wow! Wow!
As long as the fundamentals don't change and Yen continues to stay weak, Nikkei will not be bearish.
Nikkei futues closes at 19,345 today. Nikkie futures has risen 1025 points after our first posting.
We recommend investors to take profit after a 1000 points increase over a short period.
Congrats to all who have heeded our nikkei call!
Nikkei futures closes at 19,200 today. Congrats to all who heeded our calls to profit-take.
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