I received a request to give my opinion on the cancellation of Ant's IPO. Here it goes!
If you understand Ant's business model and the political background of Alibaba, you would have expected China to take action against Ant. Why?
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2017/11/china-government-is-targeting-jack-ma.html
Jiang Zemin's caucus has been trying to disrupt China's economy by using the entrepreneurs that are groomed for its own agenda and Alibaba is one of the business groups. Jiang Zemin's grandson is on board Alibaba as one of its biggest shareholders.
Jiang Zemin is still using the same tactic of trying to leave colossal debts in the banking sector so that China's financial industry will be crumbled by the high non-performing loans.
Ant's fundamental business is its microlending business (huabei & jiabei) which provides small loans without collaterals. Under the existing business structure, Ant only puts up 2% of its own cash and outsources 98% of cash loans to China banks without collaterals. This puts the banking industry in an extremely vulnerable position as the high-risk debts put tremendous stresses on the banks. Basically, Jiang Zemin is using the same old trick again through Ant.
Therefore, China has decided to rein in Ant's business by imposing Ant to put up at least 30% of its own cash loans and restrict the loan criteria. The new restrictions will definitely crumple Ant's revenues but they will save the banking industry. Therefore, the future Ant's profitability will be limited and its IPO valuation will have to be reduced significantly.
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