Wow! Someone has projected that the US stock market will crash 40% by April 2021. - Part 2

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/11/wow-someone-has-projected-that-us-stock.html

Since we have a very high viewership for this post which makes it into our top 4 postings in just 3 days, we will comment further regarding this financial crisis prognosis.

In order for this phenomenon of a stock market crash of 40% by April 2020 and decades-long recovery to happen, we've envisaged the following events which must take place first before this prognosis will materialize.

A good vaccine must have 3 requisitions: Effective, Safe and Sustainable.

Currently, many vaccines are in phase 3 trials and are deemed to be effective and safe.  The only big unknown is the sustainability of the immunity since it takes time to verify the immunity period.  If the immunity period is only about 6 months after vaccination, we will need to take this vaccination on a regular basis especially when we need to travel abroad.  This will reduce our travel desire as the side effects of the vaccination can be quite severe, particularly for the 2nd dosage as stated in the phase 3 trial insofar.

The westerners are still unwilling to wear masks and maintain social distancing.  This will create another big outbreak after Christmas since the vaccines will most likely be available in Q2 2021.  There are many consecutive days of more than 100K Americans getting infected daily now in November 2020 which shows that the virus outbreak is already getting out of control.  Joe Biden can only implement the harsh measures as recommended by his adviser to contain the pandemic after 20 Jan 2021.  One of the toughest measures will be to lock down the US for about 6 weeks to stamp out the virus.

https://abc7news.com/michael-osterholm-us-lockdown-nationwide-is-under/7896126/

This lockdown will decimate the US economy and cause a big stock market crash, and the recovery will take decades because of the imposition of a new and permanent travel restriction (vaccination requirement).  The world will never be the same again after this pandemic.