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Tuesday, July 11, 2023

The current stock market is overvalued!

Logically speaking, the stock market PE ratio moves in sync with the real yield because the future price is being discounted to the present value using the risk-free rate.  However, there is a dislocation between the real yield and the stock market PE ratio now and this is an aberration which will be corrected in the future.  Thus, the PE ratio is more likely to move down in the future and this means the stock market will become a bear market. 


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