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Friday, September 25, 2026

The Xi-Trump summit will be a non-market event. Why?

The best outcome from this Xi-Trump summit will be some conlusion of MOUs that are non-legal binding.  Why?

This is because Trump has to stabilize the US-Sino relationship for his mid-term election and Xi doesn't trust the axis of calumny (US).  However, Trump can't get too cozy with China or else the China hawks in the US will pounce on him.  Conversely, Xi has more bargaining chips than Trump for this meeting because the US technological restrictions don't work on China anymore.  In short, the US has lost the technological war and China has achieved some important technology breakthroughs for self-sufficiency growth.

Furthermore, the US won't dare to start a financial war (USD deprivation) against China and China is also not afraid to go head on with the US on this.  For example, China has rejected US sanctions on the Iranian airliners and will continue to provide Iranian airliners with fuel and logistical support.

In view of the above, we don't see this summit as a market moving event as relationship stabilization is the fundemantal theme for this meeting.

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